Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

^ ERX: Intraday Hourly Forecast Similar Waves GapOpen Research Timing Gains Losses Strategies Practice

Mon. Jan. 11, 2010

Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Thu. Nov. 6, 2008 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Direxion Daily Energy Bull 3X ETF)
ERX latest price $461.5000 (-0.15%) ($452.3000 - $475.4900) on Mon. Jan. 11, 2010.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   4.05% (three month average)
RSI   81
Latest Price   $461.5000(-0.15%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   ERX advances 1.3% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   ERX advances 7% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support ERX advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
OIH(90%)    XOP(88%)    IWM(71%)    SPY(71%)    EEM(65%)
Factors Impacting ERX price   ERX will decline at least -2.025% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-34%)    SHY(-9%)    TIP(-1%)    IGOV(5%)    LQD(6%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -2.025% (StdDev 4.05%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend -2.5%

5 Day Moving Average   $455.74(1.26%)
10 Day Moving Average   $435.72(5.92%)
20 Day Moving Average   $414.55(11.33%)
To recent high   -12.2%
To recent low   28.1%
Market Cap   $N/A

Average daily price decay: -0.02%

$. ERX is a 3x leveraged ETF. You'll lose 0.02% a day on average for holding it.$. ERX price fluctuates within 6.73% (three month std-dev: 4.05%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 11 Average positive next day return: 1.33%(55%) Average negative next day return: -2.78%(45%) Sample size 11 Average positive next three day return: 3.32%(27%) Average negative next three day return: -3.34%(73%) Sample size 11 Average positive next weekly return: 5.89%(64%) Average negative next weekly return: -4.2%(36%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20100211

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Jan_11_2010	414.67	414.55	435.72	455.74	455.46	460.4	461.5(-0.15%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	151	70	147	162	0.17	41%	0.26	83.5	4.05%	0	1.7	81	0
2	Jan_8_2010	413.58	410.02	430.83	449.84	448.26	453.36	462.2(1.58%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.5	118	70	108	149	0.18	44%	0.33	78.3	4.05%	0	1.9	82	0
3	Jan_7_2010	412.22	404.88	425.32	436.76	440.35	450.53	455(-0.66%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.7	178	190	184	159	0.17	44%	0.34	61.2	4.14%	0	2	75	0
4	Jan_6_2010	410.84	400.07	419.74	427.48	428.63	443.16	458(3.62%)	UT	HoldLong	65	1.3	228	250	246	173	0.21	47%	0.39	43.8	4.14%	0	2.4	77	0
5	Jan_5_2010	409.25	395.83	413.28	417.94	417.83	430.18	442(2.31%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.1	216	210	236	156	0.16	50%	0.37	33.3	4.19%	0	2.1	75	0

6	Jan_4_2010	407.76	392.49	407.4	413.1	412.45	414.1	432(8.87%)	UT	HoldLong	65	1	110	20	113	101	0.2	50%	0.42	28.2	4.26%	0	2.1	76	0
7	Dec_31_2009	406.04	389.94	402.19	409.48	411.29	405.49	396.8(-2.89%)	CR	SmallShort	-20	-0.8	-57	-90	-83	21	0.09	44%	0.16	17.5	4.13%	0	0.4	68	0
8	Dec_30_2009	405.38	389.99	401.55	411.9	413.4	410.81	408.6(-0.41%)	CR	SmallShort	-20	-0.2	-46	-30	-74	40	0.08	44%	0.22	19.3	4.22%	0	1.1	81	0
9	Dec_29_2009	404.5	389.72	399.11	410.3	413.65	417.09	410.3(-1.8%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0	56	80	43	93	0.14	44%	0.19	17.9	4.23%	0	1.2	83	0
10	Dec_28_2009	403.75	388.66	396.36	407.4	409.9	416	417.8(0.94%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	120	120	119	121	0.09	44%	0.39	14.7	4.22%	0	1.8	69	0

11	Dec_24_2009	402.19	387.14	391.99	400.62	403.95	410.22	413.9(1.22%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	127	130	132	112	0.07	42%	0.18	-13	4.22%	0	1.9	67	0
12	Dec_23_2009	401.46	387.08	387.75	393.92	397.28	403.8	408.9(2.07%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1	113	140	121	90	0.14	40%	0.14	-41	4.26%	0	1.5	61	0
13	Dec_22_2009	400.89	386.82	382.92	389.84	390.93	397.69	400.6(1.21%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	91	130	101	61	0.21	42%	0.12	-69.5	4.3%	0	0.9	48	0
14	Dec_21_2009	400.42	386.77	378.88	386.4	388.63	390.76	395.8(3.1%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	84	60	99	38	0.31	42%	0.17	-98.2	4.34%	0	0.6	42	0
15	Dec_18_2009	399.75	386.35	376.88	383.78	385.74	384.18	383.9(0.92%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0	-22	-10	-22	-21	0.18	42%	0.15	-122.2	4.33%	0	-0.2	46	0

16	Dec_17_2009	399.14	389	376.29	381.94	385.33	386.5	380.4(-2.08%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.1	0	50	6	-18	0.26	42%	0.17	-99	4.33%	0	-0.5	45	0
17	Dec_16_2009	398.46	393.24	376.6	380.32	383.47	387.31	388.5(1.33%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.3	59	90	80	-3	0.31	45%	0.14	-74.8	4.33%	0	-0.2	36	0
18	Dec_15_2009	397.92	397.39	377.37	374.76	378.15	384.15	383.4(0.18%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.3	69	140	95	-10	0.2	45%	0.08	-65.6	4.42%	0	-0.4	40	0
19	Dec_14_2009	397.59	402	379.39	370.12	372.53	379.63	382.7(2.14%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.3	88	150	120	-8	0.26	45%	0.09	-60.3	4.43%	0	-0.5	43	0
20	Dec_11_2009	397.23	405.33	380.17	369.16	367.46	372.15	374.7(0.64%)	RB	SmallLong	20	0.1	44	80	69	-30	0.28	45%	0.1	-59.3	4.43%	0	-0.8	47	0

21	Dec_10_2009	396.84	408.81	381.79	370.04	368.33	365.43	372.3(3.22%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.1	-23	-70	-6	-74	0.23	45%	0.16	-60.4	4.42%	0	-1	32	0
22	Dec_9_2009	396.2	413.81	386.23	372.58	373.17	362.76	360.7(0.14%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-156	-190	-159	-146	0.31	45%	0.11	-53.3	4.45%	0	-1.4	24	0
23	Dec_8_2009	395.76	419.58	391.12	380.42	381.29	371.24	360.2(-4.68%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.5	-205	-180	-215	-176	0.3	48%	0.14	-44.6	4.45%	0	-1.5	23	0
24	Dec_7_2009	395.22	425.3	395.67	389.84	390.93	383.58	377.9(-0.32%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-141	-120	-138	-150	0.24	49%	0.22	-34.3	4.51%	0	-1.3	25	0
25	Dec_4_2009	394.37	428.94	397.02	392.66	398.2	391.34	379.1(-1.53%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-97	-80	-82	-140	0.46	51%		-30.7	4.55%	0	-1.4	36	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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