Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

^ ERX: Intraday Hourly Forecast Similar Waves GapOpen Research Timing Gains Losses Strategies Practice

Sat. Oct. 17, 2009

Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Thu. Nov. 6, 2008 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Direxion Daily Energy Bull 3X ETF)
ERX latest price $509.5000 (-0.2%) ($495.4000 - $515.3900) on Sat. Oct. 17, 2009.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   4.16% (three month average)
RSI   74
Latest Price   $509.5000(-0.2%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   ERX advances 2.8% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   ERX advances 13.2% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support ERX advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
(0%)    (0%)    (0%)    (0%)    (0%)
Factors Impacting ERX price   ERX will decline at least -2.08% in a week (0% probabilities).
(0%)    (0%)    (0%)    (0%)    (0%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -2.08% (StdDev 4.16%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 0.7%

5 Day Moving Average   $483.66(5.34%)
10 Day Moving Average   $452.35(12.63%)
20 Day Moving Average   $421.72(20.81%)
To recent high   -0.2%
To recent low   73.5%
Market Cap   $N/A

Average daily price decay: -0.02%

$. ERX is a 3x leveraged ETF. You'll lose 0.02% a day on average for holding it.$. ERX price fluctuates within 10.14% (three month std-dev: 4.16%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 7 Average positive next day return: 2.25%(43%) Average negative next day return: -1.46%(57%) Sample size 7 Average positive next three day return: 2.53%(86%) Average negative next three day return: -2.22%(14%) Sample size 7 Average positive next weekly return: 7.16%(86%) Average negative next weekly return: -3.83%(14%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20091117

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Oct_16_2009	348.8	421.72	452.35	483.66	483.07	499.14	509.5(-0.2%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.6	282	230	276	301	0.32	66%	0.5	51.5	4.16%	0	2.1	74	0
2	Oct_15_2009	347.08	416.51	437.28	470.32	471.51	484.26	510.5(6.58%)	UT	HoldLong	65	1.1	307	200	314	287	0.44	69%	0.58	52.9	4.17%	0	2.5	77	0
3	Oct_14_2009	345.07	411.33	422.2	456.22	458.61	467.01	479(4.36%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	196	140	193	206	0.33	67%	0.46	57	4.27%	0	2.2	74	0
4	Oct_13_2009	343.5	408.13	412.95	442.54	446.93	458.76	459(-0.28%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.6	199	220	204	183	0.26	66%	0.34	61.8	4.27%	0	1.9	64	0
5	Oct_12_2009	342.32	404.75	406.32	431.78	433.85	450.21	460.3(3.95%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.1	269	280	295	190	0.23	66%	0.46	62.4	4.29%	0	2.2	56	0

6	Oct_9_2009	340.74	400.8	399.54	415.96	419.34	435.1	442.8(0.64%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.2	304	290	346	178	0.19	66%	0.42	61.7	4.3%	0	1.9	58	0
7	Oct_8_2009	339.32	397.47	393.09	398.78	401.92	417.49	440(7.16%)	UT	OpenLong	75	2	267	290	315	121	0.35	66%	0.33	57.6	4.3%	0	2.1	54	0
8	Oct_7_2009	338.21	394.26	386.77	383.1	382.74	403.58	410.6(1.33%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.4	208	380	259	55	0.27	60%	0.25	54.3	4.24%	0	0.8	47	0
9	Oct_6_2009	337.38	391.87	385.24	379.16	375.58	386.35	405.2(6.3%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.3	236	170	296	56	0.27	60%	0.24	57.5	4.36%	0	0.7	44	0
10	Oct_5_2009	336.58	389.64	386.34	377.54	373.63	361.9	381.2(6.81%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.2	-86	-250	-84	-93	0.22	58%	0.26	61.1	4.34%	0	-0.4	48	0

11	Oct_2_2009	335.71	387.53	388.56	381.04	380.38	364.8	356.9(-1.3%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1	-277	-290	-311	-173	0.21	51%	0.13	52.9	4.31%	0	-1.3	45	0
12	Oct_1_2009	335.29	386.03	394.54	386.06	389.93	385.35	361.6(-7.5%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.9	-119	-50	-132	-80	0.28	51%	0.15	44.5	4.52%	0	-0.9	49	0
13	Sep_30_2009	334.8	384.05	400.39	390.03	391.46	395.96	390.9(-1.56%)	N/A	N/A	0	0	16	90	21	-1	0.27	54%	0.14	35.8	4.41%	0	0.2	57	0
14	Sep_29_2009	334.34	380.61	403.65	391.75	390.41	394.52	397.1(-0.4%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	50	60	55	35	0.17	54%	0.18	29.2	4.41%	0	0.5	65	0
15	Sep_28_2009	333.73	377.57	403.72	396.77	394.07	386.95	398.7(4.37%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.1	-28	-150	-43	18	0.17	54%	0.09	27.9	4.43%	0	0.6	66	0

16	Sep_25_2009	333.43	375.26	402.68	397.91	401.27	386.3	382(0.15%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-161	-240	-206	-26	0.23	54%	0.16	28.7	4.42%	0	0.2	70	0
17	Sep_24_2009	332.89	374.02	402.86	404.57	405.67	401.19	381.43(-4.52%)	CR	SmallShort	-20	-0.6	-166	-70	-222	3	0.27	54%	0.13	38.1	4.47%	0	0.2	74	0
18	Sep_23_2009	332.46	372.99	403.08	411.94	412.46	416.24	399.5(-5.38%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.3	77	70	50	156	0.31	56%	0.28	49.9	4.42%	0	0.7	81	0
19	Sep_22_2009	331.52	370.69	399.68	416.96	414.49	410.16	422.2(4.4%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.1	72	-90	34	185	0.25	52%	0.31	62.6	4.36%	0	1.4	86	0
20	Sep_21_2009	330.48	367.77	393.44	411.76	412.9	408.68	404.4(-2.62%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.2	-38	-60	-92	126	0.24	50%	0.36	73.6	4.73%	0	1.1	73	0

21	Sep_18_2009	329.31	365.2	386.64	408.02	411.17	418.83	415.3(-0.72%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	118	150	93	191	0.19	50%	0.46	77.7	4.73%	0	1.5	67	0
22	Sep_17_2009	327.8	360.79	377.02	400.74	400.63	417.13	418.3(-1.48%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.6	213	290	212	214	0.21	50%	0.44	72.7	4.73%	0	1.9	66	0
23	Sep_16_2009	326.38	355.8	366.45	392.82	391.19	403.51	424.6(7.17%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.1	268	210	286	213	0.26	50%	0.52	68.4	4.77%	0	2.4	65	0
24	Sep_15_2009	324.7	349.64	355.34	380.12	380.22	384.14	396.2(2.72%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	112	70	113	107	0.21	44%	0.44	58	4.76%	0	1.8	62	0
25	Sep_14_2009	323.28	344.68	348.76	372.62	372.4	378.86	385.7(1.79%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	69	120	71	63	0.15	44%		42.9	4.84%	0	1.6	53	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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