Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

^ ERX: Intraday Hourly Forecast Similar Waves GapOpen Research Timing Gains Losses Strategies Practice

Tue. Oct. 6, 2009

Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Thu. Nov. 6, 2008 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Direxion Daily Energy Bull 3X ETF)
ERX latest price $405.2000 (6.3%) ($393.9000 - $411.7000) on Tue. Oct. 6, 2009.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   4.36% (three month average)
RSI   44
Latest Price   $405.2000(6.3%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   ERX advances 0.4% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   ERX declines -4.6% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support ERX advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
OIH(90%)    XOP(88%)    IWM(71%)    SPY(71%)    EEM(65%)
Factors Impacting ERX price   ERX will decline at least -2.18% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-33%)    SHY(-9%)    TIP(-1%)    LQD(6%)    IGOV(6%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -2.18% (StdDev 4.36%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 1.7%

5 Day Moving Average   $379.16(6.87%)
10 Day Moving Average   $385.24(5.18%)
20 Day Moving Average   $391.87(3.4%)
To recent high   -4.6%
To recent low   74.1%
Market Cap   $N/A

Average daily price decay: -0.02%

$. ERX is a 3x leveraged ETF. You'll lose 0.02% a day on average for holding it.$. ERX price fluctuates within 5.15% (three month std-dev: 4.36%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

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> 20091106

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Oct_6_2009	337.38	391.87	385.24	379.16	375.58	386.35	405.2(6.3%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.3	236	170	296	56	0.27	60%	0.24	57.5	4.36%	0	0.7	44	0
2	Oct_5_2009	336.58	389.64	386.34	377.54	373.63	361.9	381.2(6.81%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.2	-86	-250	-84	-93	0.22	58%	0.26	61.1	4.34%	0	-0.4	48	0
3	Oct_2_2009	335.71	387.53	388.56	381.04	380.38	364.8	356.9(-1.3%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1	-277	-290	-311	-173	0.21	51%	0.13	52.9	4.31%	0	-1.3	45	0
4	Oct_1_2009	335.29	386.03	394.54	386.06	389.93	385.35	361.6(-7.5%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.9	-119	-50	-132	-80	0.28	51%	0.15	44.5	4.52%	0	-0.9	49	0
5	Sep_30_2009	334.8	384.05	400.39	390.03	391.46	395.96	390.9(-1.56%)	N/A	N/A	0	0	16	90	21	-1	0.27	54%	0.14	35.8	4.41%	0	0.2	57	0

6	Sep_29_2009	334.34	380.61	403.65	391.75	390.41	394.52	397.1(-0.4%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	50	60	55	35	0.17	54%	0.18	29.2	4.41%	0	0.5	65	0
7	Sep_28_2009	333.73	377.57	403.72	396.77	394.07	386.95	398.7(4.37%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.1	-28	-150	-43	18	0.17	54%	0.09	27.9	4.43%	0	0.6	66	0
8	Sep_25_2009	333.43	375.26	402.68	397.91	401.27	386.3	382(0.15%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-161	-240	-206	-26	0.23	54%	0.16	28.7	4.42%	0	0.2	70	0
9	Sep_24_2009	332.89	374.02	402.86	404.57	405.67	401.19	381.43(-4.52%)	CR	SmallShort	-20	-0.6	-166	-70	-222	3	0.27	54%	0.13	38.1	4.47%	0	0.2	74	0
10	Sep_23_2009	332.46	372.99	403.08	411.94	412.46	416.24	399.5(-5.38%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.3	77	70	50	156	0.31	56%	0.28	49.9	4.42%	0	0.7	81	0

11	Sep_22_2009	331.52	370.69	399.68	416.96	414.49	410.16	422.2(4.4%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.1	72	-90	34	185	0.25	52%	0.31	62.6	4.36%	0	1.4	86	0
12	Sep_21_2009	330.48	367.77	393.44	411.76	412.9	408.68	404.4(-2.62%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.2	-38	-60	-92	126	0.24	50%	0.36	73.6	4.73%	0	1.1	73	0
13	Sep_18_2009	329.31	365.2	386.64	408.02	411.17	418.83	415.3(-0.72%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	118	150	93	191	0.19	50%	0.46	77.7	4.73%	0	1.5	67	0
14	Sep_17_2009	327.8	360.79	377.02	400.74	400.63	417.13	418.3(-1.48%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.6	213	290	212	214	0.21	50%	0.44	72.7	4.73%	0	1.9	66	0
15	Sep_16_2009	326.38	355.8	366.45	392.82	391.19	403.51	424.6(7.17%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.1	268	210	286	213	0.26	50%	0.52	68.4	4.77%	0	2.4	65	0

16	Sep_15_2009	324.7	349.64	355.34	380.12	380.22	384.14	396.2(2.72%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	112	70	113	107	0.21	44%	0.44	58	4.76%	0	1.8	62	0
17	Sep_14_2009	323.28	344.68	348.76	372.62	372.4	378.86	385.7(1.79%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	69	120	71	63	0.15	44%	0.37	42.9	4.84%	0	1.6	53	0
18	Sep_11_2009	322.09	341.68	344.95	361.86	367.18	376.3	378.9(0.05%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	184	220	213	97	0.21	44%	0.41	32.4	4.85%	0	1.5	56	0
19	Sep_10_2009	320.79	339.62	342.16	349.28	352.48	365.94	378.7(4.87%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.3	149	290	177	66	0.2	44%	0.44	20.9	4.91%	0	1.7	64	0
20	Sep_9_2009	319.37	337.09	339.72	335.84	339.23	358.06	361.1(0.67%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.2	232	420	279	92	0.22	44%	0.36	2.6	4.88%	0	1.2	63	0

21	Sep_8_2009	318.21	335.12	338.71	326.82	327.46	339.03	358.7(8.07%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.6	199	250	240	75	0.25	44%	0.55	-16	4.89%	0	1.2	67	0
22	Sep_4_2009	316.46	333.86	339.32	321.8	320.39	320.39	331.9(5.03%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	19	-10	25	2	0.2	40%	0.22	-28.5	4.75%	0	-0.1	65	0
23	Sep_3_2009	315.76	333.96	341.7	325.98	323.12	315.9	316(1.44%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-101	-180	-121	-39	0.16	34%	0.17	-21.7	4.78%	0	-0.9	49	0
24	Sep_2_2009	315.22	334.94	343.5	334.08	333.35	320.39	311.5(-1.42%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.2	-137	-280	-167	-45	0.2	34%	0.16	-8.2	4.95%	0	-1.3	44	0
25	Sep_1_2009	314.71	336.55	345.11	343.92	342.48	330.35	316(-5.28%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.5	-170	-260	-211	-45	0.34	40%		13.6	4.95%	0	-1.1	48	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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