Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

^ ERX: Intraday Hourly Forecast Similar Waves GapOpen Research Timing Gains Losses Strategies Practice

Thu. Sep. 17, 2009

Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Thu. Nov. 6, 2008 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Direxion Daily Energy Bull 3X ETF)
ERX latest price $418.3000 (-1.48%) ($411.0000 - $431.0000) on Thu. Sep. 17, 2009.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   4.73% (three month average)
RSI   66
Latest Price   $418.3000(-1.48%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   ERX advances 2% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   ERX advances 10.2% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support ERX advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
OIH(90%)    XOP(88%)    IWM(71%)    SPY(71%)    EEM(65%)
Factors Impacting ERX price   ERX will decline at least -2.365% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-33%)    SHY(-9%)    TIP(-1%)    LQD(6%)    IGOV(6%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -2.365% (StdDev 4.73%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend -0.5%

5 Day Moving Average   $400.74(4.38%)
10 Day Moving Average   $377.02(10.95%)
20 Day Moving Average   $360.79(15.94%)
To recent high   -1.5%
To recent low   79.8%
Market Cap   $N/A

Average daily price decay: -0.02%

$. ERX is a 3x leveraged ETF. You'll lose 0.02% a day on average for holding it.$. ERX price fluctuates within 8.57% (three month std-dev: 4.73%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 11 Average positive next day return: 6.3%(36%) Average negative next day return: -2.72%(64%) Sample size 11 Average positive next three day return: 7.03%(55%) Average negative next three day return: -3.15%(45%) Sample size 11 Average positive next weekly return: 8.21%(45%) Average negative next weekly return: -6%(55%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20091017

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Sep_17_2009	327.8	360.79	377.02	400.74	400.63	417.13	418.3(-1.48%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.6	213	290	212	214	0.21	50%	0.44	72.7	4.73%	0	1.9	66	0
2	Sep_16_2009	326.38	355.8	366.45	392.82	391.19	403.51	424.6(7.17%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.1	268	210	286	213	0.26	50%	0.52	68.4	4.77%	0	2.4	65	0
3	Sep_15_2009	324.7	349.64	355.34	380.12	380.22	384.14	396.2(2.72%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	112	70	113	107	0.21	44%	0.44	58	4.76%	0	1.8	62	0
4	Sep_14_2009	323.28	344.68	348.76	372.62	372.4	378.86	385.7(1.79%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	69	120	71	63	0.15	44%	0.37	42.9	4.84%	0	1.6	53	0
5	Sep_11_2009	322.09	341.68	344.95	361.86	367.18	376.3	378.9(0.05%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	184	220	213	97	0.21	44%	0.41	32.4	4.85%	0	1.5	56	0

6	Sep_10_2009	320.79	339.62	342.16	349.28	352.48	365.94	378.7(4.87%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.3	149	290	177	66	0.2	44%	0.44	20.9	4.91%	0	1.7	64	0
7	Sep_9_2009	319.37	337.09	339.72	335.84	339.23	358.06	361.1(0.67%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.2	232	420	279	92	0.22	44%	0.36	2.6	4.88%	0	1.2	63	0
8	Sep_8_2009	318.21	335.12	338.71	326.82	327.46	339.03	358.7(8.07%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.6	199	250	240	75	0.25	44%	0.55	-16	4.89%	0	1.2	67	0
9	Sep_4_2009	316.46	333.86	339.32	321.8	320.39	320.39	331.9(5.03%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	19	-10	25	2	0.2	40%	0.22	-28.5	4.75%	0	-0.1	65	0
10	Sep_3_2009	315.76	333.96	341.7	325.98	323.12	315.9	316(1.44%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-101	-180	-121	-39	0.16	34%	0.17	-21.7	4.78%	0	-0.9	49	0

11	Sep_2_2009	315.22	334.94	343.5	334.08	333.35	320.39	311.5(-1.42%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.2	-137	-280	-167	-45	0.2	34%	0.16	-8.2	4.95%	0	-1.3	44	0
12	Sep_1_2009	314.71	336.55	345.11	343.92	342.48	330.35	316(-5.28%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.5	-170	-260	-211	-45	0.34	40%	0.17	13.6	4.95%	0	-1.1	48	0
13	Aug_31_2009	314.18	338.39	344.69	351.72	349.25	346.31	333.6(-5.44%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1	-103	-80	-135	-5	0.27	41%	0.06	30.8	5.08%	0	-0.3	55	0
14	Aug_28_2009	313.98	339.38	341.62	359.04	356.93	354.61	352.8(-1.04%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.3	19	-60	7	55	0.23	47%	0.26	43.7	5.07%	0	0.7	55	0
15	Aug_27_2009	313.16	338.16	339.2	359.74	359.64	352.19	356.5(-1.16%)	CR	SmallShort	-20	-0.2	-37	-150	-59	29	0.31	47%	0.34	40.6	5.19%	0	1	57	0

16	Aug_26_2009	312.1	336.48	337.51	354.32	359.09	359.24	360.7(1.61%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.3	-13	40	-28	34	0.22	47%	0.38	29	5.21%	0	1.3	58	0
17	Aug_25_2009	310.93	334.08	334.39	346.46	352.38	367.1	355(-4.11%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.5	151	340	169	95	0.39	47%	0.29	18.7	5.25%	0	1.2	53	0
18	Aug_24_2009	310.04	332.94	331.05	336.3	338.46	358.94	370.2(3.9%)	UT	OpenLong	75	2	268	440	315	125	0.36	47%	0.29	7	5.26%	0	2.2	53	0
19	Aug_21_2009	309.13	331.67	327.13	321.66	321.79	337.66	356.3(8.17%)	UT	OpenLong	75	2.3	216	350	264	71	0.31	44%	0.29	-5.8	5.24%	0	1.6	49	0
20	Aug_20_2009	308.23	330.98	324.46	316.2	309.64	317.99	329.4(2.49%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.9	77	130	103	-3	0.21	41%	0.29	-0.5	5.26%	0	-0.1	52	0

21	Aug_19_2009	307.34	331.3	324.73	318.78	311.21	305.91	321.4(5.65%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.2	-10	-190	0	-38	0.35	41%	0.31	18.5	5.26%	0	-0.7	52	0
22	Aug_18_2009	306.39	330.86	326.64	320.88	318.47	301.29	304.2(2.42%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-1.1	-166	-400	-188	-101	0.25	43%	0.23	31.4	5.21%	0	-1.7	51	0
23	Aug_17_2009	305.69	331.74	331.46	324.66	325.06	316.5	297(-9.73%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.8	-196	-180	-226	-104	0.26	43%	0.12	59.1	5.35%	0	-2.3	41	0
24	Aug_14_2009	305.32	332.58	337.43	332.54	331.9	335.66	329(-3.89%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.2	14	70	16	9	0.29	46%	0.15	93.4	5.27%	0	-0.2	44	0
25	Aug_13_2009	304.85	331.03	337.62	333.5	332.34	333.62	342.3(3.13%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	46	20	54	20	0.35	43%		100.4	5.24%	0	0.6	48	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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