Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

^ ERX: Intraday Hourly Forecast Similar Waves GapOpen Research Timing Gains Losses Strategies Practice

Wed. Mar. 25, 2009

Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Thu. Nov. 6, 2008 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Direxion Daily Energy Bull 3X ETF)
ERX latest price $274.8000 (0.99%) ($252.9000 - $287.1000) on Wed. Mar. 25, 2009.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   8.79% (three month average)
RSI   78
Latest Price   $274.8000(0.99%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   ERX advances 1.7% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   ERX advances 17.9% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support ERX advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
OIH(90%)    XOP(89%)    SPY(72%)    IWM(71%)    EEM(67%)
Factors Impacting ERX price   ERX will decline at least -4.395% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-33%)    SHY(-11%)    TIP(-1%)    LQD(6%)    IGOV(8%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -4.395% (StdDev 8.79%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 0.8%

5 Day Moving Average   $267.17(2.86%)
10 Day Moving Average   $250.98(9.49%)
20 Day Moving Average   $225.53(21.85%)
To recent high   -42.8%
To recent low   57.3%
Market Cap   $N/A

Average daily price decay: -0.08%

$. ERX is a 3x leveraged ETF. You'll lose 0.08% a day on average for holding it.$. ERX price fluctuates within 15% (three month std-dev: 8.79%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20090425

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Mar_25_2009	346.38	225.53	250.98	267.17	267.66	274.1	274.8(0.99%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.2	38	170	9	126	0.69	52%	-0.22	20.9	8.79%	0	1.5	78	NAN
2	Mar_24_2009	347.14	223.66	244.14	262.61	267.68	273.21	272.1(-5.88%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	116	200	101	159	0.66	52%	-0.23	14.3	8.87%	0	1.5	66	NAN
3	Mar_23_2009	347.95	222.12	237.81	257.27	259.28	261.21	289.1(23.18%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1	65	80	39	141	0.84	52%	-0.18	6.9	8.83%	0	2.2	73	NAN
4	Mar_20_2009	348.59	218.3	227.17	244.11	249.83	262.14	234.7(-11.48%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.3	80	420	60	138	0.61	47%	-0.36	-23.3	8.29%	0	0.6	68	NAN
5	Mar_19_2009	349.84	218.91	222.03	240.77	242.29	257.34	265.14(5.21%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	173	450	176	165	0.75	49%	-0.27	-36.6	8.24%	0	1.6	59	NAN

6	Mar_18_2009	350.78	218.67	212.89	232.24	229.36	237.53	252(2.69%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	98	210	99	96	0.81	45%	-0.32	-51.8	8.21%	0	1.1	52	NAN
7	Mar_17_2009	351.89	219.1	207.59	222.84	222.31	227.24	245.4(9.9%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	60	150	64	48	0.59	45%	-0.34	-66.6	8.51%	0	0.8	50	NAN
8	Mar_16_2009	353.1	220.03	200.86	215.56	216.41	221.19	223.3(2.43%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	38	170	49	6	0.75	42%	-0.42	-86.3	8.4%	0	0.1	45	NAN
9	Mar_13_2009	354.59	224.92	196.3	207.68	211.7	217.38	218(-2.02%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.3	55	250	77	-11	0.55	42%	-0.45	-79	8.41%	0	-0.2	52	NAN
10	Mar_12_2009	356.18	230.28	196.38	200.04	202.27	211.64	222.5(8.54%)	RB	SmallLong	20	0.5	48	360	75	-33	0.75	42%	-0.44	-75.4	8.48%	0	-0.2	46	NAN

11	Mar_11_2009	357.75	235.34	197.62	190.48	193.63	206.03	205(-1.91%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.3	65	500	102	-47	0.79	39%	-0.51	-74.1	8.4%	0	-0.6	39	NAN
12	Mar_10_2009	359.57	242.06	201.11	190.1	187.1	192.91	209(13.65%)	RB	SmallLong	20	0.3	44	170	79	-63	0.95	39%	-0.5	-69	8.4%	0	-0.6	40	NAN
13	Mar_9_2009	361.38	251.06	204.66	184.32	186.67	181.23	183.9(2.28%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0	-28	-170	-1	-108	0.83	35%	-0.6	-58.7	8.45%	0	-1	33	NAN
14	Mar_6_2009	363.55	261.49	208.46	183.24	187.34	181.29	179.8(2.92%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0	-107	-160	-87	-166	0.85	35%	-0.62	-53	8.56%	0	-1.2	26	NAN
15	Mar_5_2009	365.82	271.37	215.65	192.14	191	192.1	174.7(-13.98%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.2	-88	20	-64	-160	0.74	35%	-0.65	-49	8.62%	0	-1.4	24	NAN

16	Mar_4_2009	368.2	280.41	225.29	205.74	202.82	193.39	203.1(12.77%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0	-62	-370	-34	-144	0.67	33%	-0.56	-49.1	8.47%	0	-1.1	27	NAN
17	Mar_3_2009	370.29	287.7	231.82	214.22	215.72	189.9	180.1(0.9%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-201	-820	-198	-211	0.6	28%	-0.65	-49.3	8.64%	0	-1.6	17	NAN
18	Mar_2_2009	372.73	295.62	241.31	228.2	231.43	212.25	178.5(-20.42%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.8	-217	-540	-215	-223	0.76	28%	-0.67	-50.9	8.65%	0	-1.9	14	NAN
19	Feb_27_2009	375.26	304.35	256.65	236.62	242.3	241.54	224.3(-7.58%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.2	-88	50	-65	-155	0.58	27%	-0.52	-54.1	9.05%	0	-1.4	17	NAN
20	Feb_26_2009	377.24	311.06	267.43	242.22	245.39	250.6	242.7(-1.14%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0	-1	190	37	-113	0.33	27%	-0.47	-53.3	9.09%	0	-1.3	25	NAN

21	Feb_25_2009	379.04	318.73	276.15	247.94	245.11	243.06	245.5(-1.8%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0	-39	-90	-11	-124	0.47	27%	-0.47	-48.4	9.39%	0	-1.3	33	NAN
22	Feb_24_2009	380.84	325.07	286.03	252.8	252.19	240.18	250(13.33%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-87	-340	-69	-142	0.41	27%	-0.47	-43.9	9.41%	0	-1.4	35	NAN
23	Feb_23_2009	382.63	331.25	300.49	257.28	261.14	247.16	220.6(-12.56%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.7	-149	-330	-147	-156	0.4	20%	-0.58	-43.1	9.5%	0	-2.2	31	NAN
24	Feb_20_2009	384.88	338.39	318.42	279.76	273.86	264.2	252.3(-7%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-121	-310	-124	-112	0.4	31%	-0.48	-36.7	10.31%	0	-2	33	NAN
25	Feb_19_2009	386.75	342.84	331.4	296.43	294.58	275.11	271.3(0.56%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.7	-77	-480	-78	-72	0.33	29%		-30.6	11.15%	0	-1.9	35	NAN
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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