Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Fri. Feb. 6, 2009

Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Thu. Nov. 6, 2008 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Direxion Daily Energy Bull 3X ETF)
ERX latest price $399.3000 (5.22%) ($368.5000 - $403.6000) on Fri. Feb. 6, 2009.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   12.13% (three month average)
RSI   58
Latest Price   $399.3000(5.22%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   ERX advances 3.2% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   ERX advances 3% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support ERX advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
OIH(90%)    XOP(89%)    SPY(73%)    IWM(72%)    EEM(68%)
Factors Impacting ERX price   ERX will decline at least -6.065% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-33%)    SHY(-12%)    IGOV(-2%)    TIP(-1%)    LQD(7%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -6.065% (StdDev 12.13%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 8%

5 Day Moving Average   $361.18(10.55%)
10 Day Moving Average   $363.83(9.75%)
20 Day Moving Average   $356.92(11.87%)
To recent high   -28.4%
To recent low   47.3%
Market Cap   $N/A

Average daily price decay: -0.15%

$. ERX is a 3x leveraged ETF. You'll lose 0.15% a day on average for holding it.$. ERX price fluctuates within 6.81% (three month std-dev: 12.13%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20090306

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Feb_6_2009	395.17	356.92	363.83	361.18	360.87	373.84	399.3(5.22%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.6	91	250	103	56	0.29	42%	0.02	-79	12.13%	0	1.7	58	0
2	Feb_5_2009	395.11	358.21	358.79	350.1	346.85	358.57	379.5(7.87%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1	44	210	49	28	0.32	42%	-0.06	-70.2	12.21%	0	0.7	58	0
3	Feb_4_2009	395.36	359.88	353.88	344.92	345.73	347.9	351.8(1.76%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	37	50	42	21	0.28	42%	-0.18	-63.1	12.28%	0	-0.3	56	0
4	Feb_3_2009	396.09	365.71	354.31	353.86	348.09	335.14	345.7(4.88%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-53	-310	-65	-18	0.2	42%	-0.21	-31.6	12.38%	0	-0.5	48	0
5	Feb_2_2009	396.94	371.46	350.67	358.42	360.05	343.56	329.6(-4.16%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-81	-310	-97	-34	0.23	42%	-0.29	-13.7	12.47%	0	-0.9	49	0

6	Jan_30_2009	398.1	377.21	353.12	366.28	369.62	361.04	343.9(-2.74%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-56	-140	-68	-21	0.25	42%	-0.24	2.8	12.57%	0	-0.7	45	0
7	Jan_29_2009	399.05	379.66	353.06	367.92	372	376.54	353.6(-10.82%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.3	11	120	14	1	0.21	42%	-0.21	10.4	12.67%	0	-0.5	42	0
8	Jan_28_2009	399.87	381.07	350.95	363.2	364.03	378.2	396.5(7.6%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	63	280	80	13	0.25	42%	-0.02	12.8	12.7%	0	0.3	48	0
9	Jan_27_2009	399.93	379.11	348.32	355.1	349.75	367.45	368.5(-0.11%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	72	310	95	2	0.21	42%	-0.14	8.5	12.78%	0	-0.2	39	0
10	Jan_26_2009	400.51	377.9	346.93	342.04	341.22	349.85	368.9(4.77%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.6	68	170	96	-17	0.33	42%	-0.15	-0.4	12.9%	0	-0.2	40	0

11	Jan_23_2009	401.11	375.91	348.87	338.6	330.11	332.05	352.1(6.7%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.3	-26	-30	-12	-67	0.34	42%	-0.23	-11.9	13%	0	-0.5	41	0
12	Jan_22_2009	402.05	374.71	356.6	336.42	334.8	332.59	330(-7.3%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.1	2	-60	19	-51	0.34	42%	-0.35	-23.6	13.1%	0	-0.9	47	0
13	Jan_21_2009	403.46	375.08	365.51	336.52	333.92	328.16	356(17.41%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.4	-50	-140	-43	-71	0.31	42%	-0.23	-30.2	13.19%	0	-0.4	51	0
14	Jan_20_2009	404.41	375.11	376.94	341.06	337.34	337.01	303.2(-13.79%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.7	-45	-40	-41	-57	0.25	38%	-0.51	-31.7	13.09%	0	-1.4	48	0
15	Jan_16_2009	406.48	378.09	393.55	352.04	348.71	339.68	351.7(3.08%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0	-12	-210	-7	-25	0.3	40%	-0.28	-33.7	13.07%	0	-0.5	57	0

16	Jan_15_2009	407.62	381.84	403.15	360.84	353.67	337.66	341.2(3.24%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-114	-380	-133	-57	0.26	40%	-0.34	-29.2	13.21%	0	-0.8	58	0
17	Jan_14_2009	409.03	386.83	408.96	380.3	375.29	357.74	330.5(-12.73%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1	-77	-370	-95	-23	0.36	40%	-0.42	-12.7	13.34%	0	-1.1	57	0
18	Jan_13_2009	410.74	390.89	415.03	398.58	394.39	369.68	378.7(5.75%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-104	-470	-132	-19	0.23	40%	-0.17	0.8	13.35%	0	-0.2	63	0
19	Jan_12_2009	411.45	392.27	413.8	418.84	411.38	392.85	358.1(-9.5%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.2	-132	-370	-170	-19	0.16	40%	-0.29	20	13.47%	0	-0.7	55	0
20	Jan_9_2009	412.66	395.46	413.25	441	440.4	419.1	395.7(-9.76%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.9	-42	-340	-69	38	0.19	40%	-0.1	44.8	13.55%	0	0	60	0

21	Jan_8_2009	413.06	396.8	406.95	451.32	452.05	429.92	438.5(3.93%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.3	-80	-340	-113	18	0.16	40%	0.15	55.5	13.61%	0	0.8	51	0
22	Jan_7_2009	412.45	393.23	395.43	441.58	451.96	461.7	421.92(-12.1%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.4	-1	220	-14	37	0.21	40%	0.06	49.7	13.77%	0	0.6	47	0
23	Jan_6_2009	412.22	390.48	386.24	432.86	439.13	474.18	480(2.37%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1	170	600	191	105	0.26	40%	0.41	47.2	13.79%	0	1.8	59	0
24	Jan_5_2009	410.53	382.55	372.56	408.06	408.79	442.21	468.9(4.83%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.4	175	580	204	88	0.23	40%	0.37	17.4	13.96%	0	1.9	58	0
25	Jan_2_2009	409.03	374.52	359.85	381.98	382.04	404.09	447.3(14.75%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.6	131	400	159	46	0.15	40%		-20.8	14.13%	0	1.7	53	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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