Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Thu. Jan. 8, 2009

Trading Signals: ERX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Thu. Nov. 6, 2008 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Direxion Daily Energy Bull 3X ETF)
ERX latest price $438.5000 (3.93%) ($408.0000 - $438.8000) on Thu. Jan. 8, 2009.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   13.61% (three month average)
RSI   51
Latest Price   $438.5000(3.93%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   ERX advances 2.2% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   ERX advances 14.2% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support ERX advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
OIH(90%)    XOP(89%)    SPY(73%)    IWM(72%)    EEM(68%)
Factors Impacting ERX price   ERX will decline at least -6.805% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-34%)    SHY(-12%)    TIP(-2%)    LQD(7%)    GLD(9%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -6.805% (StdDev 13.61%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 7.4%

5 Day Moving Average   $451.32(-2.84%)
10 Day Moving Average   $406.95(7.75%)
20 Day Moving Average   $396.8(10.51%)
To recent high   -21.4%
To recent low   61.8%
Market Cap   $N/A

Average daily price decay: -0.19%

$. ERX is a 3x leveraged ETF. You'll lose 0.19% a day on average for holding it.$. ERX price fluctuates within 12.52% (three month std-dev: 13.61%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20090208

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Jan_8_2009	413.06	396.8	406.95	451.32	452.05	429.92	438.5(3.93%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.3	-80	-340	-113	18	0.16	40%	0.15	55.5	13.61%	0	0.8	51	0
2	Jan_7_2009	412.45	393.23	395.43	441.58	451.96	461.7	421.92(-12.1%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.4	-1	220	-14	37	0.21	40%	0.06	49.7	13.77%	0	0.6	47	0
3	Jan_6_2009	412.22	390.48	386.24	432.86	439.13	474.18	480(2.37%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1	170	600	191	105	0.26	40%	0.41	47.2	13.79%	0	1.8	59	0
4	Jan_5_2009	410.53	382.55	372.56	408.06	408.79	442.21	468.9(4.83%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.4	175	580	204	88	0.23	40%	0.37	17.4	13.96%	0	1.9	58	0
5	Jan_2_2009	409.03	374.52	359.85	381.98	382.04	404.09	447.3(14.75%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.6	131	400	159	46	0.15	40%	0.25	-20.8	14.13%	0	1.7	53	0

6	Dec_31_2008	408.02	371.01	356.27	356.9	359.76	375.36	389.8(3.04%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	74	330	96	6	0.1	36%	-0.12	-43.8	14.13%	0	0.5	43	0
7	Dec_30_2008	408.51	370.21	360.31	342.74	343.07	360	378.3(6.26%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.9	60	350	80	-2	0.08	36%	-0.21	-57.9	14.32%	0	0.2	54	0
8	Dec_29_2008	409.35	368.64	362.56	332.53	333.08	344.17	356(5.16%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.6	51	240	70	-8	0.1	36%	-0.37	-65.9	14.49%	0	-0.3	51	0
9	Dec_26_2008	410.88	374.94	367.33	331.71	329.32	326.13	338.52(5.16%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.1	-8	-90	-1	-30	0.07	36%	-0.52	-37.7	14.68%	0	-0.8	58	0
10	Dec_24_2008	413.01	383.43	375.44	334.4	336.09	322	321.9(0.91%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-72	-280	-79	-50	0.03	36%	-0.66	-23.4	14.87%	0	-1.1	59	0

11	Dec_23_2008	415.77	389.41	386.06	355.88	353.82	332.52	319(-2.51%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.7	-106	-440	-124	-52	0.1	36%	-0.72	-17.5	15.1%	0	-1.3	45	0
12	Dec_22_2008	418.79	394.86	392.1	380.64	382.35	350.17	327.22(-7.01%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1	-110	-580	-132	-42	0.12	36%	-0.7	-7.9	15.33%	0	-1.3	48	0
13	Dec_19_2008	421.74	397.19	397.2	396.66	405.48	375.12	351.9(-0.03%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.9	-129	-460	-158	-40	0.12	36%	-0.55	-8.6	15.53%	0	-0.9	56	0
14	Dec_18_2008	424.07	394.08	395.77	407.66	419.86	414.54	352(-18.01%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1	-60	0	-74	-16	0.15	36%	-0.58	-22.2	15.8%	0	-0.7	41	0
15	Dec_17_2008	426.56	397.13	393.01	421.44	421.28	435.83	429.3(-3.05%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	33	240	38	18	0.13	39%	0.02	-16.6	15.69%	0	0.6	45	0

16	Dec_16_2008	426.46	399.44	388.33	420.78	419.47	425.18	442.8(8.72%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	61	90	72	27	0.12	39%	0.14	-18.1	15.96%	0	0.7	54	0
17	Dec_15_2008	425.85	399.11	381.12	406.06	414.25	406.73	407.3(0.1%)	N/A	N/A	0	0	0	-70	4	-12	0.17	39%	-0.17	-32.1	16.19%	0	0.1	53	0
18	Dec_12_2008	426.57	401.72	374.9	398.12	401.94	413.77	406.91(-3.33%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	0.1	-11	230	-7	-22	0.14	39%	-0.18	-39.4	16.51%	0	0.1	59	0
19	Dec_11_2008	427.35	407.42	381.98	381.74	395.13	421.76	420.91(-1.19%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.6	135	580	161	55	0.2	39%	-0.06	-38.5	16.83%	0	0.2	69	0
20	Dec_10_2008	427.62	406.92	389.97	359.74	361.83	390.11	426(15.38%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1	80	560	98	27	0.22	39%	-0.02	0	17.18%	0	0.3	56	0

21	Dec_9_2008	427.69	410.72	390.48	351.9	343.19	368.5	369.2(0.44%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	83	440	103	22	0.16	39%	-0.62	0	17.29%	0	-0.6	49	0
22	Dec_8_2008	430.35	419.65	395.85	353.38	341.76	333.54	367.6(13.11%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.2	34	-270	46	-1	0.2	39%	-0.69	0	17.7%	0	-0.7	51	0
23	Dec_5_2008	433.34	427.97	396.06	348.86	341.31	317.89	325(4.54%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-125	-550	-138	-84	0.22	39%	-1.24	0	17.9%	0	-1.3	48	0
24	Dec_4_2008	438.76	435.8	392.8	382.58	364.19	349.98	310.9(-19.62%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.9	-104	-420	-113	-77	0.13	39%	-1.51	0	18.33%	0	-1.6	44	0
25	Dec_3_2008	445.49	435.8	403.53	424.21	402.07	364.74	386.8(2.71%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-72	-810	-85	-34	0.13	44%		0	18.25%	0	5.2	55	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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