Trading Signals: EL Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Thu. Mar. 31, 2016

Trading Signals: EL Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Mon. Dec. 1, 2014 - Fri. Oct. 27, 2023)

(Estee Lauder Companies Inc. Class A)
EL latest price $94.3100 (-0.12%) ($93.9500 - $94.6700) on Thu. Mar. 31, 2016.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   1.35% (three month average)
RSI   71
Latest Price   $94.3100(-0.12%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   EL advances 0.2% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   EL advances 0.4% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support EL advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
SPY(65%)    IVW(64%)    IWF(63%)    IVE(61%)    IWD(61%)
Factors Impacting EL price   EL will decline at least -0.675% in a week (0% probabilities).
UUP(-15%)    VIXM(-13%)    TLT(-12%)    IPO(-5%)    SHY(-2%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.675% (StdDev 1.35%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 0.2%

5 Day Moving Average   $93.95(0.38%)
10 Day Moving Average   $93.87(0.47%)
20 Day Moving Average   $93.27(1.12%)
To recent high   -0.1%
To recent low   14.5%
Market Cap   $33.95b

The EstÃ©e Lauder Companies, Inc. engages in the manufacturing of skin care, makeup, fragrance and hair care products. It sells products under the following brand names: EstÃ©e Lauder, Clinique, Origins, MÅ¾AÅ¾C, Bobbi Brown, La Mer, Jo Malone London, Aveda, and Too Faced. Its channels primarily consist of department stores, specialty multi-brand retailers, upscale perfumeries and pharmacies, and prestige salons and spas. The company was founded by EstÃ©e Lauder and Joseph Lauder in 1946 and is headquartered in New York, NY.

$. EL price fluctuates within 0.96% (three month std-dev: 1.35%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 4 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: -0.64%(100%) Sample size 4 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: -0.95%(100%) Sample size 4 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: -0.72%(100%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20160501

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Mar_31_2016	88.07	93.27	93.87	93.95	94.07	94.44	94.31(-0.12%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.4	19	30	17	26	1.23	57%	0.09	55.2	1.35%	0	1.2	71	INF
2	Mar_30_2016	87.99	93.15	93.75	93.77	93.78	94.24	94.42(0.27%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	30	30	30	31	0.86	57%	0.11	48	1.36%	0	1.4	66	INF
3	Mar_29_2016	87.89	93.04	93.68	93.52	93.52	93.69	94.17(0.61%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	20	10	17	28	0.78	57%	0.11	45.7	1.36%	0	1.3	68	INF
4	Mar_28_2016	87.79	92.9	93.64	93.51	93.37	93.33	93.6(0.35%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.1	3	-10	-6	28	0.58	57%	0.1	43.3	1.36%	0	0.8	66	INF
5	Mar_24_2016	87.7	92.82	93.59	93.63	93.52	93.35	93.27(-0.12%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.4	2	-20	-9	33	0.62	57%	0.09	47.9	1.36%	0	0.5	55	INF

6	Mar_23_2016	87.62	92.78	93.46	93.76	93.71	93.42	93.38(0.21%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.4	2	-20	-9	36	0.77	57%	0.08	60.4	1.37%	0	0.7	59	INF
7	Mar_22_2016	87.55	92.72	93.36	93.71	93.7	93.69	93.18(-1.01%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.6	3	-0	-9	37	1.27	57%	0.07	69.1	1.37%	0	0.5	60	INF
8	Mar_21_2016	87.49	92.64	93.23	93.83	93.49	94	94.13(-0.05%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	23	30	15	48	0.69	57%	0.17	87.8	1.36%	0	1.6	61	INF
9	Mar_18_2016	87.34	92.52	92.99	93.77	93.34	93.71	94.18(0.24%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	38	10	32	55	2.03	54%	0.14	109.7	1.37%	0	1.9	67	INF
10	Mar_17_2016	87.22	92.39	92.81	93.56	93.25	92.98	93.95(0.9%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	20	-30	11	45	1.03	54%	0.13	137.5	1.39%	0	1.9	62	INF

11	Mar_16_2016	87.11	92.25	92.63	93.12	93.09	92.96	93.11(-0.74%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0	-6	-10	-15	22	1.64	57%	0.11	133.7	1.39%	0	1	52	INF
12	Mar_15_2016	87.01	92.1	92.5	92.94	92.96	93.52	93.8(-0.03%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.8	25	40	23	32	1.4	59%	0.12	98.3	1.41%	0	1.5	59	INF
13	Mar_14_2016	86.91	91.85	92.35	92.53	92.67	93.22	93.83(0.77%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.3	44	50	47	34	1.32	59%	0.12	89.4	1.43%	0	1.9	61	INF
14	Mar_11_2016	86.81	91.58	92.09	92.09	92.15	92.39	93.11(1.46%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	14	20	16	9	1.06	55%	0.1	58.5	1.44%	0	1.3	58	INF
15	Mar_10_2016	86.72	91.28	91.95	91.98	91.89	92.12	91.77(-0.47%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	3	10	3	2	0.96	54%	0.1	42.9	1.47%	0	0.3	52	INF

16	Mar_9_2016	86.63	91.13	92.03	92.06	92.04	91.91	92.2(0.5%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.1	12	-10	11	13	0.98	54%	0.1	48	1.47%	0	0.7	58	INF
17	Mar_8_2016	86.54	91.03	92.01	91.99	91.95	91.67	91.74(0.12%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.2	-15	-20	-22	6	1.98	54%	0.09	63.3	1.48%	0	0.4	64	INF
18	Mar_7_2016	86.46	90.93	92.02	92.13	92.09	92.17	91.63(-0.99%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.3	4	0	-4	29	1.02	56%	0.08	77.1	1.48%	0	0.4	71	INF
19	Mar_4_2016	86.39	90.89	92.04	92.07	92.2	92.24	92.55(0.38%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.3	24	10	15	49	0.98	58%	0.1	93.8	1.49%	0	1	78	INF
20	Mar_3_2016	86.3	90.63	91.94	91.91	91.97	92	92.2(0.38%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.2	7	0	-9	56	1.04	58%	0.1	93.3	1.5%	0	0.9	82	INF

21	Mar_2_2016	86.21	90.35	91.85	92.01	92.09	92.16	91.85(-0.6%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	24	10	6	78	1.58	58%	0.1	97.7	1.5%	0	0.8	67	INF
22	Mar_1_2016	86.12	90.03	91.69	92.04	92.14	91.94	92.4(1.17%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	22	-10	4	77	1.07	58%	0.1	89.8	1.51%	0	1.1	57	INF
23	Feb_29_2016	86.03	89.69	91.33	91.91	91.88	92.02	91.33(-0.5%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.2	8	10	-11	66	1.12	58%	0.08	88.5	1.51%	0	0.7	57	INF
24	Feb_26_2016	85.96	89.4	91.06	91.99	91.86	92.33	91.79(-0.96%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	35	30	23	72	1.04	58%	0.09	84.4	1.51%	0	1	52	INF
25	Feb_25_2016	85.88	89.01	90.59	91.95	91.72	91.73	92.68(0.72%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	33	-10	20	70	0.82	58%		79.1	1.52%	0	1.4	68	INF
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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