Trading Signals: EL Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Mon. Nov. 2, 2015

Trading Signals: EL Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Mon. Dec. 1, 2014 - Fri. Oct. 27, 2023)

(Estee Lauder Companies Inc. Class A)
EL latest price $86.9700 (8.09%) ($84.6400 - $88.1000) on Mon. Nov. 2, 2015.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   1.96% (three month average)
RSI   63
Latest Price   $86.9700(8.09%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   EL advances 0.8% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   EL declines -0.3% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Broad based rally for large cap. Broad based rally for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support EL advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
SPY(65%)    IVW(64%)    IWF(63%)    IVE(61%)    IWD(61%)
Factors Impacting EL price   EL will decline at least -0.98% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-15%)    UUP(-14%)    TLT(-12%)    SHY(-2%)    IGOV(-0%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.98% (StdDev 1.96%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 2.7%

5 Day Moving Average   $83.32(4.38%)
10 Day Moving Average   $83.63(3.99%)
20 Day Moving Average   $83.72(3.88%)
To recent high   -4.4%
To recent low   14.8%
Market Cap   $31.308b

The EstÃ©e Lauder Companies, Inc. engages in the manufacturing of skin care, makeup, fragrance and hair care products. It sells products under the following brand names: EstÃ©e Lauder, Clinique, Origins, MÅ¾AÅ¾C, Bobbi Brown, La Mer, Jo Malone London, Aveda, and Too Faced. Its channels primarily consist of department stores, specialty multi-brand retailers, upscale perfumeries and pharmacies, and prestige salons and spas. The company was founded by EstÃ©e Lauder and Joseph Lauder in 1946 and is headquartered in New York, NY.

$. EL price fluctuates within 1.42% (three month std-dev: 1.96%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 4 Average positive next day return: 1.97%(50%) Average negative next day return: -0.61%(50%) Sample size 4 Average positive next three day return: 3.37%(50%) Average negative next three day return: -1.34%(50%) Sample size 4 Average positive next weekly return: 2.95%(75%) Average negative next weekly return: -1.12%(25%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20151202

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Nov_2_2015	84.16	83.72	83.63	83.32	83.45	83.78	86.97(8.09%)	UT	OpenLong	75	3.1	51	30	63	15	8.55	43%	0	44.4	1.96%	0	2.7	63	0
2	Oct_30_2015	84.16	83.51	83.27	82.7	82.81	82.01	80.46(-2.16%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-2.1	-55	-60	-56	-52	6.95	33%	-0.08	59.1	1.67%	0	-2.9	32	0
3	Oct_29_2015	84.23	83.58	83.72	83.45	83.46	83.12	82.24(-1.21%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.2	-29	-30	-31	-23	4.99	37%	-0.07	92.4	1.65%	0	-1.4	38	0
4	Oct_28_2015	84.29	83.53	83.72	83.92	83.95	83.61	83.25(-0.5%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-7	-30	-9	-1	2.1	39%	-0.06	103.7	1.66%	0	-0.2	47	0
5	Oct_27_2015	84.34	83.42	83.95	83.94	84.12	83.8	83.67(-0.26%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-13	-20	-16	-4	1.18	37%	-0.05	86.1	1.67%	0	0.2	56	0

6	Oct_26_2015	84.38	83.2	83.9	83.95	84.16	84.29	83.89(-0.38%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0	-3	20	-4	2	1.32	37%	-0.05	70.3	1.69%	0	0.4	56	0
7	Oct_23_2015	84.42	82.89	83.96	83.94	84.13	84.44	84.21(-0.45%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	12	30	12	13	1.92	37%	-0.04	64.8	1.69%	0	0.6	58	0
8	Oct_22_2015	84.45	82.67	83.97	84.05	84.07	84.02	84.59(1.5%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	10	-0	5	26	2.62	37%	-0.04	67.2	1.69%	0	0.9	70	0
9	Oct_21_2015	84.48	82.38	83.9	84	84.16	83.82	83.34(-0.48%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.3	0	-20	-10	31	1.38	37%	-0.05	64	1.68%	0	0.4	67	0
10	Oct_20_2015	84.52	82.15	83.88	83.96	84.29	84.11	83.74(-0.07%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.1	6	-0	-6	41	1.69	37%	-0.05	59.6	1.68%	0	0.6	71	0

11	Oct_19_2015	84.56	81.84	83.82	83.82	84.09	84.5	83.8(-1.14%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0	16	40	2	59	1.94	37%	-0.04	57.4	1.68%	0	0.8	78	0
12	Oct_16_2015	84.59	81.58	83.76	83.97	83.91	84.47	84.77(0.5%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.3	44	40	26	98	1.03	37%	-0.05	61.9	1.67%	0	1.2	87	0
13	Oct_15_2015	84.63	81.23	83.42	83.9	83.91	83.69	84.35(1.47%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	33	-10	11	99	1.84	37%	-0.05	65.5	1.67%	0	1.2	67	0
14	Oct_14_2015	84.67	80.94	83.09	83.81	83.83	83.36	83.13(0.1%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.3	11	-40	-18	98	0.98	37%	-0.07	72.1	1.66%	0	0.9	69	0
15	Oct_13_2015	84.73	80.69	82.87	83.78	83.85	83.97	83.05(-1.75%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.3	22	10	-9	114	1.36	40%	-0.02	74.7	1.66%	0	0.9	69	0

16	Oct_12_2015	84.75	80.41	82.47	83.79	83.76	84.31	84.53(0.09%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.3	55	40	27	137	0.94	41%	-0.06	73.5	1.67%	0	1.6	78	0
17	Oct_9_2015	84.8	80	81.76	83.5	83.42	83.74	84.45(0.64%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	57	20	33	129	1.5	43%	-0.06	71.7	1.68%	0	1.8	70	0
18	Oct_8_2015	84.85	79.59	81.28	82.86	82.96	83.21	83.91(1.12%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	48	20	24	121	1.26	41%	-0.07	62.8	1.68%	0	1.8	71	0
19	Oct_7_2015	84.91	79.19	80.73	82.26	82.29	83.11	82.98(-0.12%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	49	70	29	109	1.96	42%	-0.07	54.5	1.69%	0	1.7	63	0
20	Oct_6_2015	84.97	78.85	80.26	81.8	81.67	82.71	83.08(0%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.6	75	80	62	113	2.09	42%	-0.08	51.8	1.7%	0	2.1	65	0

21	Oct_5_2015	85.04	78.56	79.68	80.93	80.94	81.47	83.08(2.28%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.2	69	50	61	92	1.55	42%	-0.07	39.2	1.71%	0	2.5	67	0
22	Oct_2_2015	85.1	78.25	79.2	79.76	79.84	80.62	81.23(0.35%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1	30	70	21	57	2.4	40%	-0.09	16.8	1.69%	0	2	67	0
23	Oct_1_2015	85.18	78.13	78.83	79.46	79.25	80.42	80.95(0.33%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.1	55	100	51	68	2.79	41%	-0.08	9.9	1.69%	0	2.1	66	0
24	Sep_30_2015	85.25	78	78.59	78.98	79.05	79.07	80.68(2.48%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.4	50	0	45	65	2.87	41%	-0.08	1.3	1.7%	0	2.3	67	0
25	Sep_29_2015	85.32	77.82	78.31	78.52	78.52	78.08	78.73(2%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.2	-9	-40	-24	35	2.34	37%		-4.6	1.67%	0	0.9	60	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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