Trading Signals: EL Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Tue. Oct. 6, 2015

Trading Signals: EL Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Mon. Dec. 1, 2014 - Fri. Oct. 27, 2023)

(Estee Lauder Companies Inc. Class A)
EL latest price $83.0800 (0%) ($82.5600 - $83.3900) on Tue. Oct. 6, 2015.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   1.7% (three month average)
RSI   65
Latest Price   $83.0800(0%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   EL advances 1.1% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   EL advances 2.5% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Value stock sell-off for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support EL advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
SPY(65%)    IWF(63%)    IVE(61%)    IWD(61%)    VT(60%)
Factors Impacting EL price   EL will decline at least -0.85% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-15%)    UUP(-14%)    TLT(-12%)    SHY(-3%)    IGOV(-0%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.85% (StdDev 1.7%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 0%

5 Day Moving Average   $81.8(1.56%)
10 Day Moving Average   $80.26(3.51%)
20 Day Moving Average   $78.85(5.36%)
To recent high   -8.7%
To recent low   9.7%
Market Cap   $29.908b

The EstÃ©e Lauder Companies, Inc. engages in the manufacturing of skin care, makeup, fragrance and hair care products. It sells products under the following brand names: EstÃ©e Lauder, Clinique, Origins, MÅ¾AÅ¾C, Bobbi Brown, La Mer, Jo Malone London, Aveda, and Too Faced. Its channels primarily consist of department stores, specialty multi-brand retailers, upscale perfumeries and pharmacies, and prestige salons and spas. The company was founded by EstÃ©e Lauder and Joseph Lauder in 1946 and is headquartered in New York, NY.

$. EL price fluctuates within 2.57% (three month std-dev: 1.7%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 27 Average positive next day return: 0.96%(41%) Average negative next day return: -0.97%(59%) Sample size 27 Average positive next three day return: 1.57%(22%) Average negative next three day return: -1.58%(78%) Sample size 27 Average positive next weekly return: 1.57%(33%) Average negative next weekly return: -2.52%(67%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20151106

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Oct_6_2015	84.97	78.85	80.26	81.8	81.67	82.71	83.08(0%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.6	75	80	62	113	2.09	42%	-0.08	51.8	1.7%	0	2.1	65	0
2	Oct_5_2015	85.04	78.56	79.68	80.93	80.94	81.47	83.08(2.28%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.2	69	50	61	92	1.55	42%	-0.07	39.2	1.71%	0	2.5	67	0
3	Oct_2_2015	85.1	78.25	79.2	79.76	79.84	80.62	81.23(0.35%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1	30	70	21	57	2.4	40%	-0.09	16.8	1.69%	0	2	67	0
4	Oct_1_2015	85.18	78.13	78.83	79.46	79.25	80.42	80.95(0.33%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.1	55	100	51	68	2.79	41%	-0.08	9.9	1.69%	0	2.1	66	0
5	Sep_30_2015	85.25	78	78.59	78.98	79.05	79.07	80.68(2.48%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.4	50	0	45	65	2.87	41%	-0.08	1.3	1.7%	0	2.3	67	0

6	Sep_29_2015	85.32	77.82	78.31	78.52	78.52	78.08	78.73(2%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.2	-9	-40	-24	35	2.34	37%	-0.11	-4.6	1.67%	0	0.9	60	0
7	Sep_28_2015	85.41	77.85	78.18	78.24	78.49	79.03	77.19(-3.23%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-1	11	60	2	38	2.66	34%	-0.14	2.1	1.67%	0	-0.6	49	0
8	Sep_25_2015	85.53	77.85	78.13	78.5	78.3	78.95	79.77(1.57%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.1	48	50	44	59	2.03	39%	-0.09	9.7	1.64%	0	1.5	60	0
9	Sep_24_2015	85.61	78	77.79	78.08	77.93	77.95	78.54(0.24%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	12	-0	8	22	1.72	39%	-0.11	-7.6	1.63%	0	0.4	45	0
10	Sep_23_2015	85.7	77.99	77.55	78.14	77.95	77.65	78.35(1.29%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.2	-7	-30	-11	5	1.92	39%	-0.1	-25	1.63%	0	0.3	47	0

11	Sep_22_2015	85.79	77.86	77.36	78.09	78.14	77.91	77.35(-1.48%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.6	-9	-20	-12	0	1.2	39%	-0.07	-51.2	1.62%	0	-0.4	51	0
12	Sep_21_2015	85.85	77.83	77.38	78.1	78.24	78.24	78.51(1.12%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.3	7	10	9	-0	1.84	39%	-0.06	-71.5	1.61%	0	0.5	44	0
13	Sep_18_2015	85.9	77.89	77.25	77.68	77.86	78.38	77.64(-1.55%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0	7	50	17	-22	2.5	39%	-0.03	-104.4	1.6%	0	-0.2	39	0
14	Sep_17_2015	85.93	78.09	77.39	77.43	77.44	78.23	78.86(0.96%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.9	33	70	50	-20	2.03	39%	-0.05	-112.1	1.59%	0	0.5	44	0
15	Sep_16_2015	85.97	78.29	77.35	76.86	76.78	77.34	78.11(0.92%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.6	16	50	35	-40	1.29	40%	-0.06	-111.9	1.59%	0	-0.1	49	0

16	Sep_15_2015	86.02	78.55	77.25	76.53	76.38	76.65	77.4(1.34%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.4	-6	20	10	-53	1.46	40%	-0.07	-113.3	1.6%	0	-0.5	57	0
17	Sep_14_2015	86.08	78.8	77.46	76.58	76.51	76.22	76.38(-0.05%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-16	-30	-6	-46	1.26	40%	-0.07	-119.2	1.59%	0	-1	52	0
18	Sep_11_2015	86.14	79.39	77.85	76.78	76.88	76.1	76.42(0.54%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-44	-70	-41	-53	1.86	40%	-0.07	-93.9	1.59%	0	-0.9	41	0
19	Sep_10_2015	86.2	80.02	78.21	77.35	77.38	76.8	76.01(-0.59%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-50	-50	-49	-51	2.08	40%	-0.08	-76.3	1.59%	0	-1	35	0
20	Sep_9_2015	86.27	80.64	78.47	77.89	78.11	77.65	76.46(-1.53%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-24	-30	-17	-46	2	40%	-0.07	-70.1	1.59%	0	-1	34	0

21	Sep_8_2015	86.33	81.31	78.45	78.05	78.34	77.96	77.65(0.39%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-40	-20	-26	-81	2.26	40%	-0.01	-64.6	1.58%	0	-0.8	35	0
22	Sep_4_2015	86.34	81.9	78.37	78.47	78.3	78.58	77.35(-2.42%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-42	20	-23	-97	2.05	40%	-0.08	-56.6	1.57%	0	-0.9	37	0
23	Sep_3_2015	86.41	82.54	78.62	79.07	78.78	78.71	79.27(0.67%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0	-16	-20	15	-107	2.53	42%	-0.06	-51.9	1.54%	0	-0.6	30	0
24	Sep_2_2015	86.46	83.06	78.87	79.23	79	78.03	78.74(1.96%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-62	-90	-31	-155	1.41	42%	-0.07	-49.4	1.54%	0	-0.8	28	0
25	Sep_1_2015	86.52	83.66	79.29	79.16	79.31	78.84	77.23(-3.18%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-71	-40	-33	-185	2.88	40%		-48.6	1.52%	0	-1.2	27	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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