Trading Signals: EL Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Thu. Jul. 16, 2015

Trading Signals: EL Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Mon. Dec. 1, 2014 - Fri. Oct. 27, 2023)

(Estee Lauder Companies Inc. Class A)
EL latest price $89.3100 (-0.12%) ($89.2500 - $90.3700) on Thu. Jul. 16, 2015.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   1.04% (three month average)
RSI   60
Latest Price   $89.3100(-0.12%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   EL advances 0.7% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   EL advances 1.2% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Value stock rally for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support EL advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
SPY(65%)    IVE(61%)    VT(60%)    QQQ(59%)    XLY(58%)
Factors Impacting EL price   EL will decline at least -0.52% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-17%)    TLT(-13%)    UUP(-12%)    SHY(-3%)    IGOV(-1%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.52% (StdDev 1.04%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend -0.8%

5 Day Moving Average   $88.91(0.45%)
10 Day Moving Average   $88.02(1.47%)
20 Day Moving Average   $87.76(1.77%)
To recent high   -1%
To recent low   9.9%
Market Cap   $32.15b

The EstÃ©e Lauder Companies, Inc. engages in the manufacturing of skin care, makeup, fragrance and hair care products. It sells products under the following brand names: EstÃ©e Lauder, Clinique, Origins, MÅ¾AÅ¾C, Bobbi Brown, La Mer, Jo Malone London, Aveda, and Too Faced. Its channels primarily consist of department stores, specialty multi-brand retailers, upscale perfumeries and pharmacies, and prestige salons and spas. The company was founded by EstÃ©e Lauder and Joseph Lauder in 1946 and is headquartered in New York, NY.

$. EL price fluctuates within 1.17% (three month std-dev: 1.04%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 6 Average positive next day return: 0.71%(33%) Average negative next day return: -1.23%(67%) Sample size 6 Average positive next three day return: 1.04%(50%) Average negative next three day return: -1.85%(50%) Sample size 6 Average positive next weekly return: 1.99%(67%) Average negative next weekly return: -2.11%(33%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20150816

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Jul_16_2015	85.49	87.76	88.02	88.91	89.21	89.5	89.31(-0.12%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.4	54	30	44	84	1.93	65%	0.08	41	1.04%	0	1.5	60	0
2	Jul_15_2015	85.42	87.69	87.84	88.29	88.61	89.22	89.42(0.25%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.2	51	60	46	64	1.5	65%	0.09	23.4	1.04%	0	1.8	57	0
3	Jul_14_2015	85.34	87.59	87.56	87.64	87.99	88.93	89.2(0.02%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.8	60	90	65	43	1.28	68%	0.08	4.9	1.05%	0	1.8	55	0
4	Jul_13_2015	85.27	87.45	87.23	87.45	87.41	88.01	89.18(2.01%)	UT	OpenLong	75	2.1	52	50	62	21	1.27	68%	0.09	-6.3	1.07%	0	2.1	52	0
5	Jul_10_2015	85.19	87.34	87.09	87	87.14	87.06	87.42(1.39%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.6	7	-0	15	-17	0.95	65%	0.07	-26.7	1.04%	0	0.1	46	0

6	Jul_9_2015	85.13	87.35	87.02	87.02	87.05	86.8	86.22(0.02%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-1.1	-37	-20	-34	-45	1.3	63%	0.06	-24.4	1.04%	0	-1.5	40	0
7	Jul_8_2015	85.08	87.46	87.15	87.31	87.3	87.22	86.2(-2.31%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.5	-15	-10	-10	-28	2.29	63%	0.06	-8.4	1.04%	0	-1.7	43	0
8	Jul_7_2015	85.03	87.55	87.31	87.4	87.44	87.3	88.24(1.51%)	N/A	N/A	0	1.2	5	-10	13	-18	1.64	70%	0.04	-1.3	1%	0	1	52	0
9	Jul_6_2015	85	87.51	87.29	86.97	87.17	87.39	86.93(-0.67%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-18	20	-13	-34	1.38	67%	0.11	-21.3	0.99%	0	-0.9	55	0
10	Jul_2_2015	84.91	87.54	87.43	87.18	87.11	87.58	87.52(-0.17%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.5	28	40	37	1	1.06	67%	0.08	-12.5	0.99%	0	-0	54	0

11	Jul_1_2015	84.84	87.53	87.5	87.03	87.04	86.95	87.67(1.17%)	N/A	N/A	0	1	11	-10	17	-8	0.99	67%	0.09	-26.4	1%	0	0.2	50	0
12	Jun_30_2015	84.76	87.52	87.52	86.99	87	86.65	86.66(0.71%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-36	-30	-36	-34	1.56	65%	0.08	-38.9	1%	0	-1.4	41	0
13	Jun_29_2015	84.69	87.56	87.64	87.2	87.26	87.12	86.05(-2.22%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.9	-30	-10	-31	-25	1.61	65%	0.08	-40.6	1.01%	0	-2.5	41	0
14	Jun_26_2015	84.62	87.65	87.71	87.65	87.59	87.35	88(1.44%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.7	-12	-20	-14	-7	2	68%	0.12	-45.6	0.97%	0	0.7	53	0
15	Jun_25_2015	84.52	87.62	87.62	87.72	87.88	87.41	86.75(-0.83%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.8	-32	-30	-37	-17	1.75	65%	0.17	-56.7	0.98%	0	-1.6	46	0

16	Jun_24_2015	84.38	87.7	87.72	88.04	88.15	87.82	87.48(-0.26%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1	-28	-20	-36	-3	1.18	65%	0.18	-45.2	0.97%	0	-0.4	52	0
17	Jun_23_2015	84.23	87.76	87.8	88.12	88.37	88.35	87.71(-0.7%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.7	1	10	-5	20	0.87	65%	0.19	-45.3	0.97%	0	-0.1	54	0
18	Jun_22_2015	84.07	87.8	87.83	88.15	88.3	88.48	88.33(0.01%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	27	20	23	37	0.76	65%	0.21	-50.8	0.97%	0	0.9	61	0
19	Jun_19_2015	83.89	87.88	87.74	87.77	87.97	88.4	88.32(-0.02%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.7	31	40	33	24	0.97	69%	0.2	-43.2	1.01%	0	0.6	54	0
20	Jun_18_2015	83.72	87.92	87.65	87.5	87.5	88.13	88.34(0.49%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1	35	50	41	18	1.36	69%	0.22	-50	1.01%	0	0.5	57	0

21	Jun_17_2015	83.54	87.95	87.55	87.37	87.21	87.54	87.91(0.09%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	22	20	28	2	1.13	69%	0.2	-44.9	1.02%	0	-0	44	0
22	Jun_16_2015	83.37	88.02	87.5	87.46	87.28	87.54	87.83(1.6%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.4	-11	-40	-9	-18	1.45	69%	0.18	-30.2	1.02%	0	-0.2	41	0
23	Jun_15_2015	83.22	88.09	87.44	87.49	87.56	86.88	86.45(-0.62%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.1	-53	-50	-56	-45	1.15	66%	0.16	-22.9	1%	0	-1.7	32	0
24	Jun_12_2015	83.09	88.22	87.57	87.7	87.9	87.69	86.99(-0.8%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.8	-34	-10	-31	-42	1.03	66%	0.14	-15.8	1.01%	0	-1.4	24	0
25	Jun_11_2015	82.97	88.34	87.63	87.8	87.96	88.24	87.69(-0.75%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.1	2	30	13	-33	1.19	66%		-8.2	1.01%	0	-0.7	37	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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