Trading Signals: EBS Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Thu. Dec. 17, 2015

Trading Signals: EBS Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Wed. Nov. 15, 2006 - Fri. May. 26, 2023)

(Emergent BioSolutions Inc.)
EBS latest price $35.4500 (-1.5%) ($35.2500 - $36.4000) on Thu. Dec. 17, 2015.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   2.01% (three month average)
RSI   43
Latest Price   $35.4500(-1.5%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   EBS advances 0.5% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   EBS declines -0.6% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Broad based sell-off for large cap. Broad based sell-off for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support EBS advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
IBB(48%)    IWO(46%)    XBI(45%)    IWM(44%)    IVW(43%)
Factors Impacting EBS price   EBS will decline at least -1.005% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-10%)    TLT(-9%)    SHY(-5%)    UUP(-3%)    IGOV(-3%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -1.005% (StdDev 2.01%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend -1.9%

5 Day Moving Average   $35.09(1.03%)
10 Day Moving Average   $35.01(1.26%)
20 Day Moving Average   $35.31(0.4%)
To recent high   -2.8%
To recent low   32.9%
Market Cap   $1.875b

Emergent BioSolutions Inc. engages in the development, manufacture, and commercialization of medical countermeasures. It offers specialty products for civilian and military populations that address accidental, intentional and naturally occurring public health threats. The firm's products include ACAM2000, BioThrax, Raxibacuma, Vaxchora, and VIGIV. Its business units include Vaccines and Anti-Infectives; Antibody Therapeutics; Devices; and Contract Development and Manufacturing. The company was founded by Fuad El-Hibri in May 1998 and is headquartered in Gaithersburg, MD.

$. EBS price fluctuates within 1.98% (three month std-dev: 2.01%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 1 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: -0.65%(100%) Sample size 1 Average positive next three day return: 0.65%(100%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 1 Average positive next weekly return: 6.87%(100%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20160117

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Dec_17_2015	31.68	35.31	35.01	35.09	35.3	35.92	35.45(-1.5%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.5	12	140	19	-11	0.38	63%	0.16	21.2	2.01%	0	0.2	43	0
2	Dec_16_2015	31.63	35.29	34.93	34.93	34.88	35.58	35.99(0.62%)	RB	SmallLong	20	1.5	21	140	36	-24	0.45	63%	0.13	21.4	2.01%	0	1	47	0
3	Dec_15_2015	31.59	35.21	34.87	34.63	34.52	34.68	35.77(4.41%)	N/A	N/A	0	1.6	1	20	19	-52	0.45	63%	0.16	13.2	2.02%	0	0.8	44	0
4	Dec_14_2015	31.54	35.12	34.86	34.44	34.43	34.19	34.26(0.76%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-28	-50	-12	-76	0.45	60%	0.1	6.5	1.95%	0	-1.1	42	0
5	Dec_11_2015	31.51	35.14	34.99	34.59	34.6	34.37	34(-1.85%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.8	-34	-50	-21	-71	0.31	60%	0.1	22.3	1.95%	0	-1.5	43	0

6	Dec_10_2015	31.48	35.17	35.23	34.91	34.89	34.66	34.64(0.49%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-14	-50	-6	-39	0.18	60%	0.06	50.7	1.94%	0	-0.7	50	0
7	Dec_9_2015	31.46	35.14	35.39	34.9	35.03	34.84	34.47(-1.03%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-21	-30	-16	-35	0.32	60%	0.1	58	1.94%	0	-0.9	49	0
8	Dec_8_2015	31.43	35.11	35.59	35.13	35.17	35.13	34.83(-0.46%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-10	-0	-12	-5	0.28	60%	0.1	76.2	1.95%	0	-0.3	56	0
9	Dec_7_2015	31.4	35.07	35.68	35.33	35.39	35.22	34.99(-1.82%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.4	1	-30	-5	20	0.28	60%	0.06	92.7	1.95%	0	-0.1	60	0
10	Dec_4_2015	31.38	34.98	35.72	35.45	35.51	35.21	35.64(3.07%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.2	-6	-50	-17	28	0.34	60%	0.13	99.3	1.95%	0	0.7	59	0

11	Dec_3_2015	31.34	34.8	35.65	35.62	35.74	35.56	34.58(-2.92%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.9	-5	-30	-20	42	0.46	56%	0.1	93.7	1.92%	0	-0.2	56	0
12	Dec_2_2015	31.31	34.7	35.71	35.94	36.01	35.81	35.62(-0.61%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.2	11	-30	-9	72	0.42	60%	0.1	96.2	1.92%	0	0.7	67	0
13	Dec_1_2015	31.28	34.51	35.59	36.11	36.13	35.91	35.84(0.73%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.2	16	-40	-8	87	0.46	60%	0.16	96.8	1.94%	0	0.9	70	0
14	Nov_30_2015	31.23	34.29	35.42	36.07	36.23	36.22	35.58(-2.44%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.3	22	10	-0	89	0.35	57%	0.1	96	2.01%	0	0.8	68	0
15	Nov_27_2015	31.2	34.04	35.32	36.01	36.13	36.35	36.47(0.8%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.3	40	50	17	110	0.32	59%	0.19	91.2	1.98%	0	1.4	83	0

16	Nov_25_2015	31.14	33.75	35.09	35.69	35.82	36.23	36.18(-0.8%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	44	90	20	116	0.21	61%	0.16	88.7	1.99%	0	1.4	86	0
17	Nov_24_2015	31.09	33.5	34.86	35.44	35.49	35.9	36.47(2.33%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.6	53	90	29	125	0.29	59%	0.19	90.6	1.99%	0	1.6	85	0
18	Nov_23_2015	31.03	33.19	34.58	35.02	35.15	35.41	35.64(0.99%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.3	48	60	23	121	0.33	57%	0.13	85.3	2.01%	0	1.3	85	0
19	Nov_20_2015	30.99	32.88	34.39	34.68	34.8	35.08	35.29(1.2%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.3	40	70	12	122	0.27	56%	0.16	75	2.02%	0	1.2	85	0
20	Nov_19_2015	30.94	32.55	34.16	34.53	34.57	34.89	34.87(-0.23%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	46	70	15	138	0.48	56%	0.13	68.1	2.06%	0	1.1	88	0

21	Nov_18_2015	30.9	32.23	33.88	34.4	34.4	34.51	34.95(1.81%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.3	48	20	15	147	0.56	54%	0.13	63.9	2.06%	0	1.3	85	0
22	Nov_17_2015	30.86	31.94	33.6	34.19	34.2	34.26	34.33(1.06%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.1	39	10	4	143	0.9	54%	0.13	65	2.07%	0	1.2	75	0
23	Nov_16_2015	30.82	31.7	33.34	34.08	34.09	34.29	33.97(-1.59%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	43	40	6	154	0.44	54%	0.06	69.1	2.08%	0	1.2	77	0
24	Nov_13_2015	30.8	31.48	33.09	34.05	33.94	34.15	34.52(0.82%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.2	59	30	19	178	0.32	54%	0.1	72.4	2.08%	0	1.6	85	0
25	Nov_12_2015	30.77	31.21	32.68	33.73	33.69	33.9	34.24(1.03%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.3	63	40	23	184	0.27	54%		73.5	2.09%	0	1.7	87	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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