Trading Signals: EBS Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Thu. Jun. 19, 2014

Trading Signals: EBS Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Wed. Nov. 15, 2006 - Fri. May. 26, 2023)

(Emergent BioSolutions Inc.)
EBS latest price $21.7000 (1.07%) ($21.2300 - $21.7300) on Thu. Jun. 19, 2014.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   2.65% (three month average)
RSI   65
Latest Price   $21.7000(1.07%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   EBS advances 0.4% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   EBS advances 2.1% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support EBS advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
XBI(45%)    IWM(44%)    SPY(42%)    QQQ(41%)    XLV(39%)
Factors Impacting EBS price   EBS will decline at least -1.325% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-12%)    TLT(-10%)    SHY(-6%)    IGOV(-3%)    UUP(-2%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -1.325% (StdDev 2.65%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 0.9%

5 Day Moving Average   $21.35(1.64%)
10 Day Moving Average   $21.3(1.88%)
20 Day Moving Average   $20.88(3.93%)
To recent high   -16.3%
To recent low   12.5%
Market Cap   $1.148b

Emergent BioSolutions Inc. engages in the development, manufacture, and commercialization of medical countermeasures. It offers specialty products for civilian and military populations that address accidental, intentional and naturally occurring public health threats. The firm's products include ACAM2000, BioThrax, Raxibacuma, Vaxchora, and VIGIV. Its business units include Vaccines and Anti-Infectives; Antibody Therapeutics; Devices; and Contract Development and Manufacturing. The company was founded by Fuad El-Hibri in May 1998 and is headquartered in Gaithersburg, MD.

$. EBS price fluctuates within 2.63% (three month std-dev: 2.65%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 26 Average positive next day return: 0.74%(46%) Average negative next day return: -0.99%(54%) Sample size 26 Average positive next three day return: 1.4%(38%) Average negative next three day return: -1.93%(62%) Sample size 26 Average positive next weekly return: 3.34%(42%) Average negative next weekly return: -2.39%(58%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20140719

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Jun_19_2014	22.95	20.88	21.3	21.35	21.27	21.36	21.7(1.07%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	19	20	8	51	0.21	44%	0	82.1	2.65%	0	1.5	65	INF
2	Jun_18_2014	22.95	20.77	21.23	21.27	21.16	21.17	21.47(2%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	14	-10	2	50	0.53	44%	-0.04	67	2.64%	0	1.1	64	INF
3	Jun_17_2014	22.96	20.66	21.11	21.2	21.15	21.18	21.05(-0.94%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.2	8	0	-4	42	0.25	44%	0	56.4	2.63%	0	0.6	57	INF
4	Jun_16_2014	22.96	20.6	21.03	21.31	21.17	21.15	21.25(-0.09%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.1	10	-30	-1	41	0.16	44%	-0.04	56.4	2.63%	0	1	51	INF
5	Jun_13_2014	22.97	20.52	20.94	21.33	21.22	21.13	21.27(-0.23%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	14	-50	2	48	0.37	44%	-0.04	44.6	2.63%	0	1.1	65	INF

6	Jun_12_2014	22.98	20.44	20.86	21.24	21.21	21.19	21.32(0.9%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.1	13	-10	1	49	0.34	44%	-0.13	15.3	2.63%	0	1.3	66	INF
7	Jun_11_2014	23.01	20.37	20.77	21.17	21.15	21.32	21.13(-2.18%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	23	50	10	62	0.16	42%	-0.17	-14.8	2.63%	0	1.2	69	INF
8	Jun_10_2014	23.05	20.3	20.72	21	20.99	21.23	21.6(1.17%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	32	80	19	69	0.17	42%	-0.09	-53.7	2.65%	0	2	75	INF
9	Jun_9_2014	23.07	20.3	20.66	20.7	20.67	20.99	21.35(2.74%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.2	27	100	15	63	0.29	42%	-0.13	-107.9	2.65%	0	2	65	INF
10	Jun_6_2014	23.1	20.22	20.51	20.49	20.44	20.74	20.78(-1.05%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.5	20	100	10	49	0.25	46%	-0.17	-138	2.85%	0	1	63	INF

11	Jun_5_2014	23.14	20.34	20.43	20.43	20.3	20.36	21(3.65%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	18	0	8	48	0.36	46%	-0.17	-92	2.85%	0	0.7	64	INF
12	Jun_4_2014	23.18	20.47	20.26	20.33	20.28	20.14	20.26(0.8%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.1	5	-60	-5	33	0.17	44%	-0.17	-76.2	2.81%	0	-0.2	56	INF
13	Jun_3_2014	23.22	20.64	20.17	20.4	20.38	20.23	20.1(-1.08%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.2	-2	-50	-13	30	0.31	44%	-0.17	-63.5	2.82%	0	-0.4	56	INF
14	Jun_2_2014	23.26	20.85	20.15	20.6	20.58	20.43	20.32(-0.83%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.2	12	-50	1	44	0.14	44%	-0.17	-51.1	2.82%	0	-0.3	50	INF
15	May_30_2014	23.3	21.05	20.08	20.52	20.64	20.52	20.49(0.05%)	UT	OpenLong	75	-0	7	-20	2	23	0.21	44%	-0.13	-44.9	2.84%	0	-0.3	39	INF

16	May_29_2014	23.33	21.24	20	20.4	20.5	20.73	20.48(-0.58%)	N/A	N/A	0	0	3	90	10	-18	0.15	44%	-0.09	-44.3	2.86%	0	-0.4	27	INF
17	May_28_2014	23.35	21.45	19.93	20.17	20.27	20.77	20.6(-2.46%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.2	0	190	22	-65	0.52	42%	-0.13	-45.1	2.88%	0	-0.4	26	INF
18	May_27_2014	23.38	21.62	19.84	19.91	19.87	20.27	21.12(5.97%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.6	-14	130	21	-118	0.47	42%	-0.09	-49	2.9%	0	-0.2	27	INF
19	May_23_2014	23.4	21.74	19.74	19.64	19.58	19.78	19.93(0.2%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.1	-40	60	9	-185	0.16	38%	-0.09	-54	2.72%	0	-0.8	14	INF
20	May_22_2014	23.42	21.92	19.87	19.58	19.58	19.47	19.89(3.06%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.1	-52	-30	3	-218	0.29	38%	-0.17	-55.3	2.75%	0	-0.9	13	INF

21	May_21_2014	23.46	22.16	20.21	19.55	19.53	19.38	19.3(0.05%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-66	-60	-10	-235	0.22	36%	-0.09	-54.1	2.73%	0	-1.3	7	INF
22	May_20_2014	23.48	22.45	20.66	19.66	19.68	19.6	19.29(-2.58%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.2	-63	-30	-6	-234	0.67	38%	-0.13	-49.3	2.74%	0	-1.4	7	INF
23	May_19_2014	23.51	22.76	21.13	19.75	19.77	19.69	19.8(0.92%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0	-62	-30	-6	-230	0.29	38%	-0.13	-44.7	2.74%	0	-1.4	17	INF
24	May_16_2014	23.54	23	21.59	19.85	19.85	19.76	19.62(-0.61%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.1	-70	-30	-19	-224	0.56	39%	-0.13	-40.2	2.74%	0	-1.7	23	INF
25	May_15_2014	23.57	23.23	22.09	20.22	20.16	19.86	19.74(-0.5%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-74	-110	-32	-201	0.56	39%		-35.2	2.77%	0	-1.9	26	INF
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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