Trading Signals: EBS Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

^ EBS: Intraday Hourly Forecast Similar Waves GapOpen Research Timing Gains Losses Strategies Practice

Mon. Oct. 28, 2013

Trading Signals: EBS Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Wed. Nov. 15, 2006 - Fri. May. 26, 2023)

(Emergent BioSolutions Inc.)
EBS latest price $18.8000 (2.01%) ($18.4400 - $18.8300) on Mon. Oct. 28, 2013.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   1.79% (three month average)
RSI   81
Latest Price   $18.8000(2.01%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   EBS advances 0.7% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   EBS advances 4% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support EBS advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
IWM(44%)    QQQ(41%)    SPY(41%)    XLK(37%)    XLY(35%)
Factors Impacting EBS price   EBS will decline at least -0.895% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-10%)    SHY(-6%)    IGOV(-4%)    GLD(0%)    TIP(1%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.895% (StdDev 1.79%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 2%

5 Day Moving Average   $18.64(0.86%)
10 Day Moving Average   $18.29(2.79%)
20 Day Moving Average   $17.88(5.15%)
To recent high   0%
To recent low   16%
Market Cap   $995m

Emergent BioSolutions Inc. engages in the development, manufacture, and commercialization of medical countermeasures. It offers specialty products for civilian and military populations that address accidental, intentional and naturally occurring public health threats. The firm's products include ACAM2000, BioThrax, Raxibacuma, Vaxchora, and VIGIV. Its business units include Vaccines and Anti-Infectives; Antibody Therapeutics; Devices; and Contract Development and Manufacturing. The company was founded by Fuad El-Hibri in May 1998 and is headquartered in Gaithersburg, MD.

$. EBS price fluctuates within 3.41% (three month std-dev: 1.79%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 4 Average positive next day return: 1.29%(75%) Average negative next day return: -5.18%(25%) Sample size 4 Average positive next three day return: 1.63%(50%) Average negative next three day return: -2.79%(50%) Sample size 4 Average positive next weekly return: 5.97%(25%) Average negative next weekly return: -3.3%(75%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20131128

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Oct_28_2013	16.61	17.88	18.29	18.64	18.65	18.61	18.8(2.01%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.3	38	-10	6	135	0.1	58%	0.3	32.3	1.79%	0	1.5	81	0
2	Oct_25_2013	16.56	17.84	18.16	18.52	18.59	18.68	18.43(-1.6%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.2	37	50	4	135	0.08	58%	0.24	26.3	1.78%	0	1	72	0
3	Oct_24_2013	16.52	17.81	18.09	18.47	18.5	18.7	18.73(-0.05%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.5	47	80	16	141	0.13	56%	0.36	23.6	1.79%	0	1.6	66	0
4	Oct_23_2013	16.46	17.77	17.96	18.34	18.33	18.5	18.74(1.24%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	48	60	21	129	0.26	56%	0.3	16.7	1.82%	0	1.9	65	0
5	Oct_22_2013	16.41	17.72	17.77	18.13	18.14	18.3	18.51(1.65%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	39	60	22	90	0.1	56%	0.31	-0.4	1.82%	0	1.6	54	0

6	Oct_21_2013	16.36	17.72	17.59	17.89	17.94	18.16	18.21(0.28%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	22	90	17	37	0.12	56%	0.31	-14.7	1.81%	0	1.1	46	0
7	Oct_18_2013	16.31	17.69	17.47	17.75	17.73	17.98	18.16(0.5%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	13	100	16	5	0.11	54%	0.31	-19.2	1.84%	0	1	50	0
8	Oct_17_2013	16.26	17.68	17.39	17.65	17.59	17.72	18.07(2.09%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.9	8	40	15	-14	0.13	56%	0.31	-22.2	1.94%	0	0.8	49	0
9	Oct_16_2013	16.21	17.69	17.32	17.53	17.5	17.47	17.7(2.31%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.4	-0	-20	12	-37	0.07	55%	0.25	-19.2	1.98%	0	0	43	0
10	Oct_15_2013	16.17	17.72	17.34	17.36	17.42	17.45	17.3(-1.26%)	DT	HoldShort	-50	-0.1	-7	20	8	-51	0.08	55%	0.06	-20.2	1.97%	0	-0.9	46	0

11	Oct_14_2013	16.16	17.76	17.44	17.24	17.26	17.52	17.52(-0.85%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.6	-5	110	12	-57	0.08	55%	0.25	-18.5	1.98%	0	-0.5	43	0
12	Oct_11_2013	16.12	17.78	17.48	17.14	17.1	17.39	17.67(1.14%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	1.1	-8	110	13	-71	0.1	58%	0.31	-19.3	2.02%	0	-0.2	41	0
13	Oct_10_2013	16.07	17.79	17.51	17.14	17.02	17	17.47(3.8%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.8	-17	-20	4	-81	0.09	60%	0.25	-15.3	2.04%	0	-0.7	43	0
14	Oct_9_2013	16.03	17.78	17.57	17.1	17.07	16.81	16.83(0.6%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-42	-110	-23	-97	0.11	58%	0.19	-17	2.01%	0	-1.9	32	0
15	Oct_8_2013	16	17.82	17.66	17.33	17.32	17.04	16.73(-1.65%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.3	-45	-110	-30	-90	0.09	58%	0.25	-4.7	2.01%	0	-2.4	30	0

16	Oct_7_2013	15.96	17.85	17.8	17.66	17.62	17.33	17.01(-2.52%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.6	-31	-120	-21	-59	0.11	58%	0.19	21.7	2%	0	-2	36	0
17	Oct_4_2013	15.93	17.87	17.94	17.85	17.87	17.6	17.45(-0.23%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1	-20	-100	-16	-33	0.12	60%	0.25	43.7	1.97%	0	-1	46	0
18	Oct_3_2013	15.89	17.87	18.01	17.97	17.97	17.92	17.49(-2.78%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.2	-14	-20	-13	-17	0.1	60%	0.25	54.9	1.98%	0	-0.9	48	0
19	Oct_2_2013	15.85	17.86	18.1	18.09	18.04	18.14	17.99(-1.96%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.2	10	30	7	18	0.13	63%	0.25	70	1.95%	0	0.3	63	0
20	Oct_1_2013	15.81	17.84	18.13	18.03	18.01	18.03	18.35(2%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	11	0	6	27	0.23	67%	0.32	70.5	1.94%	0	1.1	66	0

21	Sep_30_2013	15.76	17.76	18.11	17.98	17.93	17.95	17.99(-0.11%)	UD	OpenLong	65	0	4	-0	-6	32	0.19	66%	0.32	64.9	1.96%	0	0.5	65	0
22	Sep_27_2013	15.71	17.7	18.1	18.05	18.02	17.99	18.01(-0.66%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	13	-20	0	52	0.12	66%	0.26	60.4	1.96%	0	0.6	63	0
23	Sep_26_2013	15.67	17.64	18.08	18.07	18.07	17.91	18.13(2.66%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.1	11	-60	-7	63	0.13	66%	0.32	58	1.96%	0	0.9	67	0
24	Sep_25_2013	15.62	17.58	18.01	18.11	18.14	18.05	17.66(-2.48%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.8	6	-30	-13	64	0.17	64%	0.32	61.9	1.95%	0	0.1	54	0
25	Sep_24_2013	15.57	17.52	17.99	18.24	18.24	18.23	18.11(-1.31%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.2	20	-0	-1	84	0.09	67%		58.9	1.91%	0	1	62	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

Click to see actual return for next trading day.