Trading Signals: EBS Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Wed. Jan. 21, 2009

Trading Signals: EBS Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Wed. Nov. 15, 2006 - Fri. May. 26, 2023)

(Emergent BioSolutions Inc.)
EBS latest price $22.6700 (5.05%) ($21.5700 - $22.6700) on Wed. Jan. 21, 2009.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   5.79% (three month average)
RSI   41
Latest Price   $22.6700(5.05%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   EBS advances 1.1% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   EBS declines -4.9% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support EBS advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
IWM(43%)    SPY(41%)    QQQ(40%)    XLK(37%)    XLY(35%)
Factors Impacting EBS price   EBS will decline at least -2.895% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-14%)    SHY(-8%)    TIP(-2%)    GLD(2%)    LQD(10%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -2.895% (StdDev 5.79%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 4.4%

1 - 5 Day Possible Target   $11.95(-47.29%)
Resistance Level   $23.02
5 Day Moving Average   $21.94(3.33%)
10 Day Moving Average   $22.32(1.57%)
20 Day Moving Average   $23.02(-1.52%)
To recent high   -8.6%
To recent low   66.7%
Market Cap   $1.199b

Emergent BioSolutions Inc. engages in the development, manufacture, and commercialization of medical countermeasures. It offers specialty products for civilian and military populations that address accidental, intentional and naturally occurring public health threats. The firm's products include ACAM2000, BioThrax, Raxibacuma, Vaxchora, and VIGIV. Its business units include Vaccines and Anti-Infectives; Antibody Therapeutics; Devices; and Contract Development and Manufacturing. The company was founded by Fuad El-Hibri in May 1998 and is headquartered in Gaithersburg, MD.

$. EBS price fluctuates within 5.26% (three month std-dev: 5.79%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 1 Average positive next day return: 2.22%(100%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 1 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: -0.81%(100%) Sample size 1 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: -0.4%(100%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

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i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Jan_21_2009	17.89	23.02	22.32	21.94	21.85	21.96	22.67(5.05%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.6	-8	20	6	-49	0.75	56%	0.56	-18.6	5.79%	0	-0.3	41	0
2	Jan_20_2009	17.79	23.08	22.42	21.71	21.57	21.88	21.58(-2.4%)	DT	HoldShort	-50	-0.1	-10	80	3	-49	0.72	58%	0.51	-19.3	5.8%	0	-1.2	51	0
3	Jan_16_2009	17.7	23.2	22.73	21.67	21.41	21.74	22.11(0.36%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.4	-10	70	3	-47	1.18	60%	0.51	-15.1	5.88%	0	-0.9	44	0
4	Jan_15_2009	17.61	23.24	22.88	21.73	21.38	21.26	22.03(3.48%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.3	-16	-90	-5	-47	0.96	60%	0.51	-18	5.96%	0	-1.1	48	0
5	Jan_14_2009	17.52	23.23	23.14	22.19	21.33	21.08	21.29(-1.25%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.8	-21	-200	-16	-37	1.18	62%	0.57	-11.1	5.96%	0	-1.8	44	0

6	Jan_13_2009	17.42	23.25	23.47	22.77	22.11	21.49	21.56(0.94%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-1.1	-13	-280	-11	-18	1.11	62%	0.58	-3.9	6.05%	0	-1.6	46	0
7	Jan_12_2009	17.32	23.32	23.56	23.23	22.81	21.57	21.36(-4.64%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.7	-21	-430	-22	-19	0.9	62%	0.64	12.6	6.05%	0	-1.8	43	0
8	Jan_9_2009	17.21	23.37	23.85	23.92	23.42	22.72	22.4(-8.05%)	N/A	N/A	0	-1.5	-14	-270	-18	-0	2.69	62%	0.64	39.7	6.08%	0	-1	46	0
9	Jan_8_2009	17.1	23.44	23.95	24.18	24.1	24.05	24.36(0.74%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.2	2	-20	-2	14	0.61	64%	0.83	53.3	6.05%	0	0.9	59	0
10	Jan_7_2009	16.96	23.35	23.87	24.24	24.17	24.12	24.18(1.43%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.1	5	-20	-2	24	0.78	64%	0.77	54.5	6.05%	0	0.8	64	0

11	Jan_6_2009	16.83	23.29	23.79	24.3	24.32	24.16	23.84(-3.87%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.5	13	-40	5	37	1.09	65%	0.84	65.9	6.07%	0	0.5	64	0
12	Jan_5_2009	16.69	23.18	23.8	23.95	24.08	24.23	24.8(4.64%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	9	60	1	32	0.87	65%	0.85	58.2	6.08%	0	1.6	59	0
13	Jan_2_2009	16.55	22.98	23.69	23.79	23.88	24.49	23.7(-3.89%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	15	190	7	39	0.84	63%	1.22	56.8	6.08%	0	0.7	58	0
14	Dec_31_2008	16.35	22.91	23.6	23.68	23.71	23.92	24.66(0.69%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	16	70	10	34	0.8	64%	0.93	59	6.13%	0	1.6	54	0
15	Dec_30_2008	16.2	22.81	23.29	23.46	23.37	23.26	24.49(10.91%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1	6	-40	1	22	0.84	62%	0.93	77.4	6.15%	0	1.7	58	0

16	Dec_29_2008	16.05	22.64	22.97	23.23	23.41	23.49	22.08(-8.15%)	N/A	N/A	0	-1.2	-3	50	-6	7	0.85	60%	0.75	95.9	6.15%	0	-0.6	48	0
17	Dec_26_2008	15.93	22.61	23.05	23.61	23.57	23.48	24.04(3.93%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	7	-30	1	24	0.44	62%	1.08	125.9	6.05%	0	1.4	61	0
18	Dec_24_2008	15.76	22.43	22.86	23.58	23.69	23.33	23.13(-1.74%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.4	6	-90	-2	29	0.33	62%	0.64	125.8	6%	0	0.6	63	0
19	Dec_23_2008	15.66	22.28	22.9	23.49	23.79	23.67	23.54(0.68%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0	12	0	4	36	0.54	62%	0.64	117.7	5.99%	0	1.1	55	0
20	Dec_22_2008	15.56	22.05	22.79	23.08	23.47	24.05	23.38(-2.38%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	14	220	10	27	0.79	62%	0.71	98.1	6%	0	1	52	0

21	Dec_19_2008	15.45	21.73	22.74	22.64	22.89	23.92	23.95(0.25%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	18	350	15	26	0.78	62%	0.72	66.3	5.98%	0	1.3	61	0
22	Dec_18_2008	15.34	21.4	22.51	22.41	22.39	22.89	23.89(5.2%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	18	150	16	22	0.78	64%	0.79	53.3	5.99%	0	1.3	59	0
23	Dec_17_2008	15.22	21.15	22.19	22.06	21.88	21.86	22.71(5.87%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.3	-1	-30	-4	7	0.69	61%	0.73	49.4	6.01%	0	0.8	61	0
24	Dec_16_2008	15.11	20.97	22.14	22.26	22.08	21.86	21.45(1.08%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.4	2	-80	-5	22	0.55	61%	0.67	54.4	6.09%	0	0.3	58	0
25	Dec_15_2008	15.01	20.79	22.29	22.46	22.55	21.89	21.22(-6.81%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.6	3	-190	-10	43	0.53	61%		50.7	6.1%	0	0.2	63	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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