Trading Signals: EBS Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Wed. Dec. 24, 2008

Trading Signals: EBS Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Wed. Nov. 15, 2006 - Fri. May. 26, 2023)

(Emergent BioSolutions Inc.)
EBS latest price $23.1300 (-1.74%) ($22.7600 - $23.6100) on Wed. Dec. 24, 2008.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   6% (three month average)
RSI   63
Latest Price   $23.1300(-1.74%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   EBS advances 0.4% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   EBS advances 3% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support EBS advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
IWM(43%)    QQQ(40%)    SPY(40%)    XLK(37%)    XLY(35%)
Factors Impacting EBS price   EBS will decline at least -3% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-13%)    SHY(-7%)    TIP(-2%)    GLD(1%)    LQD(10%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -3% (StdDev 6%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend -0.8%

5 Day Moving Average   $23.58(-1.91%)
10 Day Moving Average   $22.86(1.18%)
20 Day Moving Average   $22.43(3.12%)
To recent high   -3.4%
To recent low   97.7%
Market Cap   $1.224b

Emergent BioSolutions Inc. engages in the development, manufacture, and commercialization of medical countermeasures. It offers specialty products for civilian and military populations that address accidental, intentional and naturally occurring public health threats. The firm's products include ACAM2000, BioThrax, Raxibacuma, Vaxchora, and VIGIV. Its business units include Vaccines and Anti-Infectives; Antibody Therapeutics; Devices; and Contract Development and Manufacturing. The company was founded by Fuad El-Hibri in May 1998 and is headquartered in Gaithersburg, MD.

$. EBS price fluctuates within 4.81% (three month std-dev: 6%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 1 Average positive next day return: 5.2%(100%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 1 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: -2.54%(100%) Sample size 1 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: -7.4%(100%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20090124

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Dec_24_2008	15.76	22.43	22.86	23.58	23.69	23.33	23.13(-1.74%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.4	6	-90	-2	29	0.33	62%	0.64	125.8	6%	0	0.6	63	0
2	Dec_23_2008	15.66	22.28	22.9	23.49	23.79	23.67	23.54(0.68%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0	12	0	4	36	0.54	62%	0.64	117.7	5.99%	0	1.1	55	0
3	Dec_22_2008	15.56	22.05	22.79	23.08	23.47	24.05	23.38(-2.38%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	14	220	10	27	0.79	62%	0.71	98.1	6%	0	1	52	0
4	Dec_19_2008	15.45	21.73	22.74	22.64	22.89	23.92	23.95(0.25%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	18	350	15	26	0.78	62%	0.72	66.3	5.98%	0	1.3	61	0
5	Dec_18_2008	15.34	21.4	22.51	22.41	22.39	22.89	23.89(5.2%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	18	150	16	22	0.78	64%	0.79	53.3	5.99%	0	1.3	59	0

6	Dec_17_2008	15.22	21.15	22.19	22.06	21.88	21.86	22.71(5.87%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.3	-1	-30	-4	7	0.69	61%	0.73	49.4	6.01%	0	0.8	61	0
7	Dec_16_2008	15.11	20.97	22.14	22.26	22.08	21.86	21.45(1.08%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.4	2	-80	-5	22	0.55	61%	0.67	54.4	6.09%	0	0.3	58	0
8	Dec_15_2008	15.01	20.79	22.29	22.46	22.55	21.89	21.22(-6.81%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.6	3	-190	-10	43	0.53	61%	0.6	50.7	6.1%	0	0.2	63	0
9	Dec_12_2008	14.92	20.62	22.3	22.82	22.8	22.27	22.77(2.8%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0	15	-170	-6	78	0.83	63%	0.74	49.3	6.03%	0	1	75	0
10	Dec_11_2008	14.81	20.41	22.16	22.59	23.13	23.22	22.15(-6.62%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.2	29	100	6	98	0.67	63%	0.68	53.7	6.02%	0	0.8	70	0

11	Dec_10_2008	14.71	20.25	21.99	22.3	22.6	23.32	23.72(5.66%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	32	260	9	102	0.63	65%	0.82	57.4	5.95%	0	1.7	65	0
12	Dec_9_2008	14.59	19.98	21.62	22.02	22.13	23.05	22.45(-2.52%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	32	310	9	102	0.81	63%	0.69	62.7	5.92%	0	1.3	62	0
13	Dec_8_2008	14.49	19.81	21.27	22.11	22.06	21.87	23.03(6.67%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	38	-70	12	116	0.85	63%	0.84	72.9	5.96%	0	1.7	68	0
14	Dec_5_2008	14.37	19.6	20.64	21.73	21.87	21.2	21.59(4.3%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.1	18	-200	-9	97	1.06	62%	0.7	80.4	5.92%	0	1.2	67	0
15	Dec_4_2008	14.27	19.33	20.22	21.68	22.08	22.26	20.7(-7.26%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.5	24	110	-0	95	1.16	62%	0.63	75.1	5.92%	0	0.8	58	0

16	Dec_3_2008	14.18	19.11	20.05	21.59	21.91	22.54	22.32(-2.49%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.4	39	250	17	103	1.16	65%	0.78	70.6	5.83%	0	1.7	62	0
17	Dec_2_2008	14.07	18.83	19.71	21.14	21.19	21.9	22.89(8.33%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1	42	240	23	97	1.23	65%	0.79	73.2	5.82%	0	2.3	64	0
18	Dec_1_2008	13.96	18.54	19.16	20.31	20.5	21.29	21.13(-1.08%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.5	39	300	29	67	0.89	63%	0.72	82.3	5.75%	0	1.7	57	0
19	Nov_28_2008	13.86	18.33	18.78	19.38	19.48	20.48	21.36(5.38%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.4	27	370	27	27	0.67	64%	1.02	76	5.77%	0	2.1	58	0
20	Nov_26_2008	13.72	18.08	18.49	18.54	18.53	19.71	20.27(1.15%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.3	16	440	18	11	1.14	66%	0.66	71.2	5.81%	0	1.6	68	0

21	Nov_25_2008	13.63	17.86	18.32	18.27	17.99	18.49	20.04(6.82%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.3	14	150	13	16	0.72	66%	0.66	64.1	5.81%	0	1.6	68	0
22	Nov_24_2008	13.54	17.61	18.17	18.11	17.91	17.35	18.76(13.9%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	6	-250	2	16	0.73	64%	0.37	50.2	5.77%	0	0.8	60	0
23	Nov_21_2008	13.49	17.37	18.2	17.87	18.13	17.48	16.47(-3.91%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.9	-7	-210	-13	13	0.86	62%	0.52	33.1	5.54%	0	-0.6	50	0
24	Nov_20_2008	13.42	17.3	18.48	18.05	18.23	18.47	17.14(-9.55%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.5	1	120	-10	32	0.67	62%	0.52	31.9	5.51%	0	-0.1	54	0
25	Nov_19_2008	13.35	17.18	18.42	18.38	18.33	18.78	18.95(-1.35%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	20	160	9	52	0.65	65%		34	5.36%	0	1	64	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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