Trading Signals: EBS Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Mon. Oct. 20, 2008

Trading Signals: EBS Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Wed. Nov. 15, 2006 - Fri. May. 26, 2023)

(Emergent BioSolutions Inc.)
EBS latest price $17.2800 (10.34%) ($15.4400 - $17.2900) on Mon. Oct. 20, 2008.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   4.96% (three month average)
RSI   73
Latest Price   $17.2800(10.34%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   EBS advances 6% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   EBS advances 12.8% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support EBS advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
IWM(43%)    QQQ(40%)    SPY(40%)    XLK(37%)    XLY(35%)
Factors Impacting EBS price   EBS will decline at least -2.48% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-14%)    SHY(-8%)    TIP(-3%)    GLD(2%)    LQD(10%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -2.48% (StdDev 4.96%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 7.1%

5 Day Moving Average   $15.46(11.77%)
10 Day Moving Average   $14.07(22.81%)
20 Day Moving Average   $13.5(28%)
To recent high   0%
To recent low   73.5%
Market Cap   $914m

Emergent BioSolutions Inc. engages in the development, manufacture, and commercialization of medical countermeasures. It offers specialty products for civilian and military populations that address accidental, intentional and naturally occurring public health threats. The firm's products include ACAM2000, BioThrax, Raxibacuma, Vaxchora, and VIGIV. Its business units include Vaccines and Anti-Infectives; Antibody Therapeutics; Devices; and Contract Development and Manufacturing. The company was founded by Fuad El-Hibri in May 1998 and is headquartered in Gaithersburg, MD.

$. EBS price fluctuates within 10% (three month std-dev: 4.96%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 1 Average positive next day return: 0.52%(100%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 1 Average positive next three day return: 7.17%(100%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 1 Average positive next weekly return: 12.41%(100%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

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i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Oct_20_2008	11.75	13.5	14.07	15.46	15.5	16.27	17.28(10.34%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.3	70	360	36	170	0.93	54%	0.6	52	4.96%	0	2.8	73	0
2	Oct_17_2008	11.68	13.28	13.58	14.58	14.8	15.52	15.66(-0.45%)	UD	OpenLong	75	1	52	390	30	119	1.35	50%	0.52	43.6	4.82%	0	2.3	60	0
3	Oct_16_2008	11.62	13.13	13.2	13.99	14.06	14.74	15.73(8.93%)	UT	OpenLong	75	2	46	350	37	73	0.83	52%	0.52	31.6	4.81%	0	2.9	57	0
4	Oct_15_2008	11.56	12.99	12.82	13.18	13.25	14.08	14.44(1.91%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.9	21	450	23	13	0.82	48%	0.43	10.9	4.72%	0	2.1	55	0
5	Oct_14_2008	11.51	12.88	12.66	12.81	12.73	13.38	14.17(9.67%)	N/A	N/A	0	2.2	15	340	24	-11	1.19	48%	0.26	-5.5	4.73%	0	2.1	54	0

6	Oct_13_2008	11.48	12.88	12.46	12.47	12.38	12.42	12.92(1.97%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.8	-8	0	5	-45	0.39	44%	0.35	-13.1	4.59%	0	0.1	50	0
7	Oct_10_2008	11.44	12.84	12.51	12.44	12.34	12.08	12.67(8.29%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.4	-9	-170	3	-45	0.48	47%	0.35	-14.5	4.58%	0	-0.3	48	0
8	Oct_9_2008	11.4	12.86	12.61	12.28	12.36	12.33	11.7(-7%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.1	-17	0	-6	-51	0.25	41%	0.26	-20.5	4.56%	0	-2.1	42	0
9	Oct_8_2008	11.37	12.86	12.79	12.38	12.35	12.6	12.58(0.64%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.4	-12	130	-2	-42	0.37	48%	0.44	-19.5	4.54%	0	-0.7	46	0
10	Oct_7_2008	11.32	12.86	12.87	12.48	12.43	12.39	12.5(-1.96%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0	-3	-30	4	-25	0.29	50%	0.35	-18.6	4.64%	0	-0.8	54	0

11	Oct_6_2008	11.28	12.91	12.92	12.45	12.5	12.09	12.75(7.23%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.6	-18	-220	-11	-37	0.4	50%	0.36	-28.4	4.66%	0	-0.3	46	0
12	Oct_3_2008	11.24	12.92	12.96	12.6	12.74	12.48	11.89(-2.54%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.4	-23	-110	-20	-32	0.21	47%	0.36	-21.4	4.62%	0	-2.1	45	0
13	Oct_2_2008	11.2	12.97	13.09	12.99	13.14	12.91	12.2(-6.58%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.8	-10	-90	-11	-7	0.26	48%	0.36	-8.6	4.61%	0	-1.8	47	0
14	Oct_1_2008	11.16	12.97	13.2	13.25	13.39	13	13.06(5.66%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.5	-2	-170	-7	13	0.39	52%	0.45	12.7	4.54%	0	0.1	55	0
15	Sep_30_2008	11.11	13.01	13.14	13.32	13.49	13.37	12.36(-8.44%)	N/A	N/A	0	-2.3	-4	-20	-10	15	0.53	50%	0.36	30.8	4.51%	0	-1.6	52	0

16	Sep_29_2008	11.07	13.05	13.26	13.45	13.6	13.78	13.5(-2.46%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	15	130	6	43	0.53	54%	0.54	59.5	4.39%	0	1.2	65	0
17	Sep_26_2008	11.01	13.03	13.21	13.38	13.38	13.6	13.84(2.75%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.2	17	120	9	41	0.55	54%	0.46	79.6	4.38%	0	2.2	58	0
18	Sep_25_2008	10.96	13.01	13.12	13.21	13.24	13.42	13.47(0.37%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	13	100	6	33	0.23	56%	0.46	104.8	4.38%	0	1.3	58	0
19	Sep_24_2008	10.91	12.96	13.04	13.15	13.11	13.16	13.42(3.15%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	14	20	9	29	0.51	56%	0.37	123.3	4.42%	0	1.4	54	0
20	Sep_23_2008	10.87	12.88	12.95	12.94	13.11	13.16	13.01(-0.99%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.2	-1	40	-4	7	0.19	54%	0.37	97.5	4.41%	0	0.3	51	0

21	Sep_22_2008	10.83	12.82	12.88	13.05	12.99	13.05	13.14(1.15%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	3	20	2	7	0.23	54%	0.37	96.9	4.44%	0	0.7	51	0
22	Sep_19_2008	10.79	12.74	12.86	13.05	13	12.94	12.99(-1.52%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	1	-40	0	4	0.44	51%	0.28	88.4	4.58%	0	0.4	50	0
23	Sep_18_2008	10.76	12.65	12.83	13.02	12.97	12.93	13.19(6.46%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.3	1	-30	2	-4	0.41	53%	0.47	79.2	4.57%	0	0.8	46	0
24	Sep_17_2008	10.71	12.56	12.8	12.92	12.96	13.06	12.39(-8.36%)	DT	HoldShort	-50	-0.7	-1	60	1	-6	0.36	50%	0.37	77.1	4.54%	0	-0.2	51	0
25	Sep_16_2008	10.67	12.5	12.87	12.94	12.84	13.01	13.52(4.08%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	12	70	12	11	0.31	54%		76.7	4.41%	0	1.3	69	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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