Trading Signals: EBS Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Mon. Aug. 25, 2008

Trading Signals: EBS Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Wed. Nov. 15, 2006 - Fri. May. 26, 2023)

(Emergent BioSolutions Inc.)
EBS latest price $11.6500 (2.55%) ($11.2000 - $11.6900) on Mon. Aug. 25, 2008.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   4.35% (three month average)
RSI   36
Latest Price   $11.6500(2.55%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   EBS advances 1.4% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   EBS advances 0.4% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support EBS advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
IWM(43%)    QQQ(39%)    SPY(39%)    XLK(36%)    XLY(35%)
Factors Impacting EBS price   EBS will decline at least -2.175% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-14%)    SHY(-8%)    TIP(-3%)    GLD(1%)    LQD(7%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -2.175% (StdDev 4.35%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 3%

5 Day Moving Average   $11.27(3.37%)
10 Day Moving Average   $10.93(6.59%)
20 Day Moving Average   $11.4(2.19%)
To recent high   -11.9%
To recent low   26.8%
Market Cap   $616m

Emergent BioSolutions Inc. engages in the development, manufacture, and commercialization of medical countermeasures. It offers specialty products for civilian and military populations that address accidental, intentional and naturally occurring public health threats. The firm's products include ACAM2000, BioThrax, Raxibacuma, Vaxchora, and VIGIV. Its business units include Vaccines and Anti-Infectives; Antibody Therapeutics; Devices; and Contract Development and Manufacturing. The company was founded by Fuad El-Hibri in May 1998 and is headquartered in Gaithersburg, MD.

$. EBS price fluctuates within 9.47% (three month std-dev: 4.35%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

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i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Aug_25_2008	10.01	11.4	10.93	11.27	11.23	11.33	11.65(2.55%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	9	50	9	10	0.24	58%	0.3	-16.1	4.35%	0	0.2	36	0
2	Aug_22_2008	9.98	11.39	10.76	11.11	11.09	11.17	11.36(2.53%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.2	-4	50	7	-38	0.21	60%	0.2	-21.2	4.36%	0	-0	35	0
3	Aug_21_2008	9.96	11.42	10.64	10.97	11	11.13	11.08(-1.42%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.1	-15	90	6	-79	0.18	60%	0.2	-23.5	4.37%	0	-0.3	34	0
4	Aug_20_2008	9.94	11.48	10.53	10.88	10.91	11.02	11.24(1.9%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.3	-20	80	11	-113	0.13	60%	0.3	-23.7	4.36%	0	-0.2	38	0
5	Aug_19_2008	9.91	11.52	10.69	10.69	10.73	10.86	11.03(1.94%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.3	-23	100	8	-117	0.16	60%	0.2	-26.8	4.36%	0	-0.4	41	0

6	Aug_18_2008	9.89	11.57	10.89	10.54	10.57	10.8	10.82(1.31%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.3	-20	160	11	-114	0.11	60%	0.3	-27.7	4.37%	0	-0.7	43	0
7	Aug_15_2008	9.86	11.63	11.09	10.37	10.4	10.6	10.68(0.47%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.3	-20	140	10	-110	0.2	60%	0.2	-31.4	4.37%	0	-0.9	47	0
8	Aug_14_2008	9.84	11.69	11.31	10.25	10.17	10.34	10.63(3.3%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.4	-23	90	6	-110	0.15	60%	0.41	-33.6	4.38%	0	-1	42	0
9	Aug_13_2008	9.8	11.75	11.51	10.14	10.18	10.2	10.29(0%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.1	-49	30	-24	-125	0.17	61%	0.31	-36.2	4.37%	0	-1.4	37	0
10	Aug_12_2008	9.77	11.83	11.72	10.72	10.4	10.01	10.29(3.31%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-47	-350	-31	-93	0.29	61%	0.31	-17.9	4.39%	0	-1.6	39	0

11	Aug_11_2008	9.74	11.89	11.91	11.31	11.18	10.16	9.96(-1.29%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.5	-43	-670	-37	-62	0.46	61%	0	-1.9	4.37%	0	-2.1	36	0
12	Aug_8_2008	9.74	11.98	12.09	11.94	12	10.79	10.09(0.4%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-2.2	-38	-690	-41	-28	0.61	56%	0.31	25.4	4.39%	0	-2.3	41	0
13	Aug_7_2008	9.71	12.06	12.32	12.5	12.64	12.21	10.05(-23.92%)	N/A	N/A	0	-3.3	-21	-200	-32	14	1.3	54%	0.31	61.1	4.5%	0	-2.7	40	0
14	Aug_6_2008	9.68	12.14	12.57	13.04	13.05	13.2	13.21(-0.08%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	32	80	12	92	0.21	64%	0.62	100.9	3.4%	0	1.6	74	0
15	Aug_5_2008	9.62	12.01	12.45	12.86	12.88	13.08	13.22(0.84%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	34	110	16	87	0.27	64%	0.73	105	3.4%	0	1.9	75	0

16	Aug_4_2008	9.55	11.9	12.33	12.61	12.7	12.91	13.11(1.39%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.8	36	140	21	82	0.25	64%	0.74	106.8	3.41%	0	1.8	78	0
17	Aug_1_2008	9.48	11.77	12.19	12.3	12.38	12.69	12.93(1.65%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1	24	190	13	57	0.25	65%	0.64	107.1	3.4%	0	1.9	70	0
18	Jul_31_2008	9.42	11.62	12.08	12.13	12.16	12.49	12.72(3.25%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	21	200	12	49	0.25	65%	0.64	91.5	3.43%	0	1.6	70	0
19	Jul_30_2008	9.36	11.49	11.97	12.03	12.07	12.08	12.32(2.75%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	16	20	6	45	0.23	65%	0.65	86.5	3.43%	0	1.2	67	0
20	Jul_29_2008	9.3	11.36	11.91	11.99	12.01	11.83	11.99(3.99%)	UD	OpenLong	65	0	11	-100	-4	55	0.21	64%	0.65	79.8	3.42%	0	0.8	74	0

21	Jul_28_2008	9.24	11.24	11.91	12.01	11.98	12.05	11.53(-4.55%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.6	12	30	-4	58	0.18	64%	0.54	73.9	3.43%	0	0.3	56	0
22	Jul_25_2008	9.19	11.15	11.84	12.06	11.95	12.2	12.08(-1.39%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0	27	120	8	85	0.25	66%	0.55	72.2	3.42%	0	1	73	0
23	Jul_24_2008	9.14	11.04	11.78	12	11.88	11.9	12.25(1.07%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.3	33	-20	9	105	0.23	66%	0.66	67.2	3.41%	0	1.3	78	0
24	Jul_23_2008	9.08	10.92	11.69	11.9	11.77	11.71	12.12(0.5%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	31	-70	2	116	0.13	66%	0.55	63.3	3.42%	0	1.3	75	0
25	Jul_22_2008	9.03	10.79	11.54	11.81	11.82	11.86	12.06(2.38%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.3	39	30	9	127	0.15	66%		58.3	3.42%	0	1.4	77	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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