Trading Signals: DUST Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Tue. Dec. 13, 2011

Trading Signals: DUST Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Wed. Dec. 8, 2010 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bear 3X ETF)
DUST latest price $24250.0000 (3.83%) ($21056.3100 - $24493.7500) on Tue. Dec. 13, 2011.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   5.63% (three month average)
RSI   59
Latest Price   $24250.0000(3.83%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   DUST advances 4% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   DUST advances 0.2% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support DUST advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
PEJ(-10%)    SHY(-12%)    XAR(-12%)    XLY(-12%)    XLK(-13%)
Factors Impacting DUST price   DUST will decline at least -2.815% in a week (0% probabilities).
GLD(-75%)    EEM(-27%)    VWO(-25%)    REMX(-25%)    PCY(-25%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -2.815% (StdDev 5.63%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 10.5%

5 Day Moving Average   $22077.5(9.84%)
10 Day Moving Average   $21105.66(14.9%)
20 Day Moving Average   $21246.55(14.14%)
To recent high   -10.9%
To recent low   36.3%
Market Cap   $N/A

Average daily price decay: -0.03%

$. DUST is a 3x leveraged ETF. You'll lose 0.03% a day on average for holding it.$. DUST price fluctuates within 7.18% (three month std-dev: 5.63%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 16 Average positive next day return: 1.34%(50%) Average negative next day return: -3.29%(50%) Sample size 16 Average positive next three day return: 4.21%(31%) Average negative next three day return: -4.6%(69%) Sample size 16 Average positive next weekly return: 9.24%(19%) Average negative next weekly return: -4.63%(81%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20120113

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Dec_13_2011	21753.07	21246.55	21105.66	22077.5	22191.41	23058.6	24250(3.83%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.4	9309	290	10951	4383	0	58%	0.06	54.7	5.63%	0	2	59	0
2	Dec_12_2011	21738.99	20970.55	20818.28	21238.75	21474.94	22257.03	23356.25(10.76%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.5	9729	290	11453	4558	0	59%	0.04	44.7	5.62%	0	1.7	54	0
3	Dec_9_2011	21730.15	20712.62	20645.52	20812.5	20885.5	21324.22	21087.5(-2.93%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	5515	160	6498	2565	0	57%	-0.09	33.7	5.51%	0	0.3	50	0
4	Dec_8_2011	21749.78	20640.25	20832.36	20743.75	20744.48	20692.85	21725(8.79%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	3878	-20	4570	1802	0	57%	-0.05	35.1	5.5%	0	0.7	55	0
5	Dec_7_2011	21760.83	20517.2	20898.48	20176.25	20318.7	20446.78	19968.75(-0.44%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-1346	70	-1575	-658	0	55%	-0.16	21.8	5.42%	0	-0.4	56	0

6	Dec_6_2011	21794.67	20443.71	21059.33	19951.25	20021.81	20796.12	20056.25(-5.51%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	6308	280	7428	2949	0	55%	-0.12	8.8	5.42%	0	-0.2	59	0
7	Dec_5_2011	21820.43	20346.27	21283.6	20310	19687.81	20190.62	21225(2.32%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	6192	90	7283	2917	0	57%	-0.1	6.3	5.38%	0	0.5	63	0
8	Dec_2_2011	21841.96	20235.49	21310.81	20478.75	19953.04	19247.49	20743.75(9.83%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.2	-2232	-320	-2633	-1028	0	55%	-0.15	7.4	5.41%	0	0.3	64	0
9	Dec_1_2011	21874.78	20139.14	21340.47	20983.75	20530.39	19185	18887.5(0.23%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-1.2	-16720	-520	-19685	-7825	0	53%	-0.22	10.6	5.32%	0	-0.7	51	0
10	Nov_30_2011	21923.33	20201.21	21439.77	21740	21562.89	20658.59	18843.75(-13.76%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.7	-13320	-320	-15693	-6201	0	53%	-0.3	19.8	5.28%	0	-0.8	52	0

11	Nov_29_2011	21989.62	20307.71	21488.73	22273.75	22294.56	21875.78	21850(-0.99%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-4747	-130	-5616	-2141	0	57%	-0.24	26.9	5%	0	0.9	69	0
12	Nov_28_2011	22042.34	20242.85	21207.29	22361.25	22244.56	22467.19	22068.75(-5.16%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-2743	50	-3262	-1186	0	57%	-0.2	22.8	5.01%	0	1.1	72	0
13	Nov_25_2011	22087.03	20113.45	20836.7	22247.5	22379.33	22713.34	23268.75(2.65%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	8346	120	9785	4029	0	58%	-0.35	5.8	5%	0	2	68	0
14	Nov_23_2011	22164.35	19960.51	20447.53	21778.13	21902.32	22021.94	22668.75(5.37%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	2419	60	2814	1232	0	60%	-0.21	-19.4	5.01%	0	2	67	0
15	Nov_22_2011	22210.79	19876.79	20088.76	21120.63	21395.45	22045.32	21512.5(-3.48%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	5343	250	6262	2585	0	57%	-0.03	-46.8	5.04%	0	1.2	56	0

16	Nov_21_2011	22217.84	19875.4	19757.3	20569.38	20782.95	21782.7	22287.5(3.66%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.2	13074	370	15367	6193	0	57%	-0.31	-55.9	5.12%	0	1.7	54	0
17	Nov_18_2011	22287.41	19882.43	19295.24	19878.13	19891.15	20745.59	21500(2.76%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	11085	300	13039	5222	0	55%	-0.31	-57	5.14%	0	0.9	52	0
18	Nov_17_2011	22355.72	20022.48	19018.58	19215.63	19263.48	19783.2	20921.88(7.95%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	8306	200	9777	3891	0	55%	-0.34	-49.8	5.15%	0	0.4	55	0
19	Nov_16_2011	22432.08	20232.26	18778.66	18945	18830.12	19036.72	19381.25(3.33%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	2140	60	2530	971	0	53%	-0.46	-43.5	5.05%	0	-0.4	44	0
20	Nov_15_2011	22536.81	20512.53	18819.24	18918.75	18892.62	18743.75	18756.25(-0.4%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	1161	-60	1381	502	0	51%	-0.53	-38.7	5.04%	0	-0.7	38	0

21	Nov_14_2011	22656.82	20712.13	19014.56	18807.15	18861.37	18623.52	18831.25(3.54%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0	-2709	-80	-3170	-1327	0	51%	-0.52	-40.5	5.09%	0	-0.8	37	0
22	Nov_11_2011	22775.45	20919.82	19196.61	18599.65	18703.32	19041.48	18187.5(-7.06%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.2	39	140	68	-50	0	51%	-0.48	-43.9	5.08%	0	-1.2	30	0
23	Nov_10_2011	22885.49	21120.13	19350.96	18758.39	18595.07	19099.22	19568.75(1.66%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	6499	160	7675	2970	0	52%	-0.39	-48.4	5%	0	-0.7	28	0
24	Nov_9_2011	22974.19	21307.27	19443.8	18590.89	18539.99	18365.16	19250(5.78%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	1810	-70	2167	738	0	49%	-0.43	-51.6	5.06%	0	-0.9	24	0
25	Nov_8_2011	23073.24	21476.51	19649.64	18737.14	18631.11	18090.92	18198.25(2.27%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-7879	-220	-9227	-3833	0	48%		-55.6	5.1%	0	-1.5	20	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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