Trading Signals: DUST Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Thu. Jan. 20, 2011

Trading Signals: DUST Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Wed. Dec. 8, 2010 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bear 3X ETF)
DUST latest price $31575.0000 (2.62%) ($31450.0000 - $32862.5000) on Thu. Jan. 20, 2011.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   2.8% (three month average)
RSI   76
Latest Price   $31575.0000(2.62%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   DUST advances 2.3% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   DUST advances 7.8% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support DUST advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
PEJ(-11%)    SHY(-12%)    TLT(-12%)    XLY(-13%)    XLK(-14%)
Factors Impacting DUST price   DUST will decline at least -1.4% in a week (0% probabilities).
GLD(-73%)    EEM(-27%)    VWO(-26%)    REMX(-26%)    PCY(-25%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -1.4% (StdDev 2.8%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend -1.4%

5 Day Moving Average   $30766.25(2.63%)
10 Day Moving Average   $29856.84(5.75%)
20 Day Moving Average   $28188.1(12.02%)
To recent high   0%
To recent low   25.8%
Market Cap   $N/A

Average daily price decay: -0.01%

$. DUST is a 3x leveraged ETF. You'll lose 0.01% a day on average for holding it.$. DUST price fluctuates within 7.25% (three month std-dev: 2.8%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 6 Average positive next day return: 2.4%(33%) Average negative next day return: -1.1%(67%) Sample size 6 Average positive next three day return: 3.73%(67%) Average negative next three day return: -2.09%(33%) Sample size 6 Average positive next weekly return: 2.56%(67%) Average negative next weekly return: -4.48%(33%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20110220

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Jan_20_2011	27385.02	28188.1	29856.84	30766.25	30876.17	31114.06	31575(2.62%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.4	19438	60	22819	9295	0	69%	0.53	57.5	2.8%	0	1.7	76	0
2	Jan_19_2011	27240.54	27920.66	29492.46	30080	30151.56	30271.88	30768.75(1.84%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.4	-810	40	-999	-241	0	69%	0.46	55.6	2.83%	0	1.5	76	0
3	Jan_18_2011	27114.53	27691.48	29147.43	29538.75	29636.32	30638.28	30212.5(-3.3%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.4	13435	250	15762	6455	0	69%	0.42	53.7	2.87%	0	1.4	73	0
4	Jan_14_2011	26999.79	27509.65	28726.39	29340	29140.62	30031.24	31243.75(4.04%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.1	24754	190	29081	11773	0	73%	0.61	58.3	2.82%	0	2.2	67	0
5	Jan_13_2011	26836.56	27269.51	28128.27	28973.75	28735.93	28634.37	30031.25(6.71%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	5252	-50	6143	2578	0	71%	0.48	65.3	2.8%	0	1.9	65	0

6	Jan_12_2011	26708.78	27059.06	27698.48	28847.5	28803.52	28250	28143.75(0.29%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-11010	-140	-12988	-5076	0	66%	0.22	70	2.56%	0	0.8	56	0
7	Jan_11_2011	26648.98	26910.04	27435.91	28811.25	28932.72	28837.5	28062.5(-3.96%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-7749	-10	-9149	-3550	0	66%	0.23	0	2.61%	0	0.9	59	0
8	Jan_10_2011	26587.53	26764.15	27191.02	28651.25	28863.19	29357.03	29218.75(-0.66%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.4	11661	140	13689	5578	0	73%	0.45	0	2.5%	0	1.8	66	0
9	Jan_7_2011	26467.93	26573.09	26940.42	27970	28272.55	29027.94	29412.5(0.04%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.2	21023	220	24712	9954	0	73%	0.53	0	2.54%	0	2.3	63	0
10	Jan_6_2011	26327.71	26376.19	26632.71	27135	27279.97	28369.34	29400(5.14%)	UT	OpenLong	75	2.2	22198	300	26108	10469	0	73%	0.59	0	2.6%	0	2.9	63	0

11	Jan_5_2011	26174.09	26191.37	26356.87	26403.75	26439.44	27517.16	27962.5(2.57%)	UT	OpenLong	75	2	29584	290	34805	13920	0	68%	0.36	0	2.45%	0	2.3	62	0
12	Jan_4_2011	26079.97	26191.37	26186.26	25882.5	25809.36	26190.59	27262.5(5.62%)	UT	OpenLong	75	2	18605	90	21888	8755	0	65%	0.25	0	2.46%	0	40.3	65	0
13	Jan_3_2011	26014.27	26191.37	26082.92	25533.88	25396.88	25361.72	25812.5(2.28%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.4	-2615	-30	-3076	-1230	0	56%	-0.05	0	2.16%	0	40.8	58	0
14	Dec_31_2010	26026.14	26191.37	26177.89	25762.63	25507.07	25428.13	25237.5(-1.97%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.8	-4700	-50	-5529	-2212	0	50%	-0.19	0	2.15%	0	38.8	50	0
15	Dec_30_2010	26075.43	26191.37	26341.73	26038.88	25896.13	25432.03	25743.75(1.53%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-6776	-140	-7972	-3189	0	50%	-0.08	0	2.16%	0	40.3	52	0

16	Dec_29_2010	26097.54	26191.37	26380.77	26295.13	26212.82	25586.02	25356.25(-0.64%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.4	-18961	-180	-22307	-8923	0	50%	-0.2	0	2.2%	0	38.8	46	0
17	Dec_28_2010	26150.49	26191.37	26379.95	26516.38	26557.74	26360.24	25519.38(-5.33%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.5	-10669	-50	-12552	-5021	0	50%	-0.19	0	2.27%	0	39.6	50	0
18	Dec_27_2010	26199.04	26191.37	26360.82	26687.5	26708.09	26839.62	26956.25(1.27%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	3527	40	4149	1660	0	71%	0.24	0	1.78%	0	41.9	50	0
19	Dec_23_2010	26135.94	26191.37	26221.96	26655	26602.62	26755.24	26618.75(-1.5%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	3978	30	4680	1872	0	71%	0.17	0	1.83%	0	42.3	50	0
20	Dec_22_2010	26092.05	26191.37	26131.96	26695	26614.84	26576.56	27025(2.13%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	3273	-20	3850	1540	0	71%	0.36	0	1.83%	0	42.2	50	0

21	Dec_21_2010	25998.75	26191.37	26021.5	26495	26591.41	26450	26462.5(0.33%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-2264	-30	-2663	-1065	0	65%	0.2	0	1.83%	0	44.4	50	0
22	Dec_20_2010	25947.22	26191.37	26021.5	26221.25	26416.02	26653.13	26375(-1.56%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	3053	90	3592	1437	0	65%	0.21	0	1.95%	0	43.5	50	0
23	Dec_17_2010	25893.75	26191.37	26021.5	25966.25	26050.39	26732.81	26793.75(-0.09%)	UD	OpenLong	75	1.3	18316	190	21548	8619	0	65%	0.5	0	1.96%	0	43	50	0
24	Dec_16_2010	25765.18	26191.37	26021.5	25721.25	25566.41	26178.91	26818.75(3.05%)	UT	OpenLong	75	2	18810	150	22129	8852	0	65%	0.69	0	2.1%	0	48.1	50	0
25	Dec_15_2010	25589.58	26191.37	26021.5	25502.5	25369.53	25367.97	26025(3.71%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.4	9235	-20	10865	4346	0	51%		0	1.94%	0	67.8	50	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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