Trading Signals: DLTR Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Thu. Feb. 2, 2017

Trading Signals: DLTR Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Fri. Mar. 14, 2014 - Wed. Sep. 27, 2023)

(Dollar Tree)
DLTR latest price $77.2000 (1.06%) ($76.4400 - $78.6200) on Thu. Feb. 2, 2017.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   1.8% (three month average)
RSI   49
Latest Price   $77.2000(1.06%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   DLTR advances 0.3% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   DLTR declines -0.9% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Growth stock sell-off for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support DLTR advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
IVE(42%)    IWD(42%)    SDY(41%)    SPY(40%)    XLY(40%)
Factors Impacting DLTR price   DLTR will decline at least -0.9% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-14%)    UUP(-9%)    TLT(-9%)    IGOV(-3%)    GDXJ(-3%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.9% (StdDev 1.8%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 0.6%

1 - 5 Day Possible Target   $73.64(-4.61%)
5 Day Moving Average   $76.02(1.55%)
10 Day Moving Average   $76.22(1.29%)
20 Day Moving Average   $76.86(0.44%)
To recent high   -13.9%
To recent low   4.9%
Market Cap   $18.312b

Dollar Tree, Inc. owns and operates discount variety stores offering merchandise at the fixed prices. It operates through Dollar Tree and Family Dollar segments. The company offers selection of everyday basic products and its supplement these basic, everyday items with seasonal, closeout and promotional merchandise. The merchandise mix consists of three types: Consumable, Variety categories and Seasonal merchandise. The Consumable merchandise includes candy and food, health and beauty care, and household consumables such as paper, plastics and household chemicals and in select stores, frozen and refrigerated food. The Variety categories merchandise includes toys, durable house wares, gifts, party goods, greeting cards, soft lines and other items. The Seasonal goods include Easter, Halloween and Christmas merchandise. Dollar Tree was founded by J. Douglas Perry and Macon F. Brock, Jr. in 1986 and is headquartered in Chesapeake, VA.

$. DLTR price fluctuates within 1.46% (three month std-dev: 1.8%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 2 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: -0.1%(100%) Sample size 2 Average positive next three day return: 0.54%(50%) Average negative next three day return: -0.16%(50%) Sample size 2 Average positive next weekly return: 0.23%(50%) Average negative next weekly return: -2.14%(50%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20170302

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Feb_2_2017	79.63	76.86	76.22	76.02	76.03	76.98	77.2(1.06%)	RB	SmallLong	20	1.1	19	90	31	-19	3.05	45%	-0.05	-40.4	1.8%	0	0.3	49	0
2	Feb_1_2017	79.67	76.96	76.11	75.81	75.52	76.3	76.39(-1.04%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.5	17	60	33	-30	1.85	45%	-0.05	-37	1.79%	0	-0.5	45	0
3	Jan_31_2017	79.71	76.96	76.19	75.91	75.47	75.08	77.19(2.58%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	1	-7	-50	5	-42	3.62	45%	-0.06	-39.8	1.79%	0	0.1	47	0
4	Jan_30_2017	79.76	77.01	76.38	75.85	75.79	74.74	75.25(1.62%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-45	-100	-41	-55	2.5	41%	-0.09	-47.6	1.76%	0	-1.4	44	0
5	Jan_27_2017	79.83	77.12	76.57	75.91	76.28	75.86	74.05(-2.78%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.6	-43	-20	-39	-53	2.91	38%	-0.1	-74.4	1.76%	0	-2.6	40	0

6	Jan_26_2017	79.91	77.32	76.94	76.41	76.49	76.85	76.17(-0.94%)	DT	HoldShort	-50	-0.3	-4	40	4	-26	1.88	41%	-0.08	-114.6	1.76%	0	-1.2	42	0
7	Jan_25_2017	79.97	77.42	77.11	76.43	76.48	76.71	76.89(0.01%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.5	6	20	17	-27	1.65	41%	-0.09	-147.9	1.77%	0	-0.6	39	0
8	Jan_24_2017	80.04	77.51	77.21	76.51	76.37	76.13	76.88(1.76%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.4	-23	-30	-18	-38	1.65	41%	-0.04	-173.1	1.77%	0	-0.7	49	0
9	Jan_23_2017	80.07	77.62	77.24	77.04	76.78	76.25	75.55(-1.32%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.6	-29	-60	-28	-30	1.69	41%	-0.1	-187.5	1.75%	0	-2.2	46	0
10	Jan_20_2017	80.15	78.03	77.42	77.35	77.54	76.62	76.56(0.39%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.9	-25	-80	-26	-23	2.03	41%	-0.09	-202.8	1.75%	0	-1.8	48	0

11	Jan_19_2017	80.22	78.42	77.57	77.55	77.75	77.3	76.26(-1.36%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.5	-37	-30	-41	-23	2.03	41%	-0.09	-198.2	1.75%	0	-2.5	46	0
12	Jan_18_2017	80.29	78.81	77.89	77.86	77.75	78.47	77.31(-2.77%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.3	7	50	6	9	4.28	41%	-0.09	-108.3	1.74%	0	-0.9	47	0
13	Jan_17_2017	80.36	79.13	77.92	77.99	77.94	78.21	79.51(3.09%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	33	20	37	20	5.08	44%	-0.14	-84.3	1.71%	0	0.2	52	0
14	Jan_13_2017	80.47	79.41	77.67	77.99	77.55	77.41	77.13(-0.52%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-10	-10	-7	-19	1.75	39%	-0.11	-75.7	1.66%	0	-0.8	37	0
15	Jan_12_2017	80.56	79.77	77.7	77.51	77.47	77.68	77.53(-0.36%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	0	-13	20	-2	-45	1.71	39%	-0.22	-73.2	1.67%	0	-0.7	23	0

16	Jan_11_2017	80.74	80.19	77.72	77.61	77.5	77.69	77.81(-0.19%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.1	-14	10	5	-70	1.49	39%	-0.22	-72.3	1.67%	0	-0.7	22	0
17	Jan_10_2017	80.92	80.59	77.74	77.94	77.65	77.26	77.96(1.06%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0	-27	-50	-5	-92	2.38	39%	-0.23	-68.3	1.67%	0	-0.8	27	0
18	Jan_9_2017	81.11	81.06	77.81	77.84	77.93	77.32	77.14(0.06%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-50	-50	-24	-126	2.07	39%	-0.23	-66.6	1.67%	0	-1.1	23	0
19	Jan_6_2017	81.3	81.55	78.02	77.85	78.04	78.04	77.09(-1.24%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.2	-48	10	-14	-149	3.1	45%	-0.23	-63.4	1.67%	0	-1.2	21	0
20	Jan_5_2017	81.49	82.08	78.67	77.9	77.93	78.55	78.06(-1.75%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0	-19	60	20	-134	2.83	43%	-0.22	-63.4	1.73%	0	-1.1	28	0

21	Jan_4_2017	81.67	82.57	79.31	77.82	77.69	78.04	79.45(2.58%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.4	-14	30	27	-138	3.26	41%	-0.2	-65	1.73%	0	-0.8	27	0
22	Jan_3_2017	81.83	83	79.75	77.55	77.57	77.31	77.45(0.35%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0	-46	-20	-7	-163	2.59	37%	-0.41	-67.1	1.77%	0	-1.4	17	0
23	Dec_30_2016	82.17	83.52	80.41	77.8	77.71	77.35	77.18(-0.21%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.2	-66	-40	-28	-180	1.69	40%	-0.25	-68.8	1.77%	0	-1.6	14	0
24	Dec_29_2016	82.38	84.02	81.25	78.23	78.2	77.83	77.34(-0.42%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.2	-78	-30	-43	-182	1.85	38%	-0.25	-73.9	1.79%	0	-1.8	18	0
25	Dec_28_2016	82.59	84.58	82.01	79.57	79.22	78.07	77.67(-0.58%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.6	-87	-110	-59	-170	1.68	38%		-70.5	1.82%	0	-2	18	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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