Trading Signals: DLTR Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Mon. Nov. 23, 2015

Trading Signals: DLTR Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Fri. Mar. 14, 2014 - Wed. Sep. 27, 2023)

(Dollar Tree)
DLTR latest price $69.5500 (1.65%) ($68.1100 - $69.8200) on Mon. Nov. 23, 2015.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   2.31% (three month average)
RSI   55
Latest Price   $69.5500(1.65%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   DLTR advances 2.1% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   DLTR declines -0.1% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Broad based rally for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support DLTR advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
IVE(41%)    IWD(41%)    SDY(41%)    SPY(40%)    XLY(40%)
Factors Impacting DLTR price   DLTR will decline at least -1.155% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-17%)    TLT(-8%)    UUP(-7%)    IGOV(-3%)    GDXJ(-3%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -1.155% (StdDev 2.31%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 0.9%

5 Day Moving Average   $67.2(3.5%)
10 Day Moving Average   $66.24(5%)
20 Day Moving Average   $66.21(5.04%)
To recent high   -10.1%
To recent low   13.3%
Market Cap   $16.497b

Dollar Tree, Inc. owns and operates discount variety stores offering merchandise at the fixed prices. It operates through Dollar Tree and Family Dollar segments. The company offers selection of everyday basic products and its supplement these basic, everyday items with seasonal, closeout and promotional merchandise. The merchandise mix consists of three types: Consumable, Variety categories and Seasonal merchandise. The Consumable merchandise includes candy and food, health and beauty care, and household consumables such as paper, plastics and household chemicals and in select stores, frozen and refrigerated food. The Variety categories merchandise includes toys, durable house wares, gifts, party goods, greeting cards, soft lines and other items. The Seasonal goods include Easter, Halloween and Christmas merchandise. Dollar Tree was founded by J. Douglas Perry and Macon F. Brock, Jr. in 1986 and is headquartered in Chesapeake, VA.

$. DLTR price fluctuates within 3.04% (three month std-dev: 2.31%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 12 Average positive next day return: 0.45%(33%) Average negative next day return: -1.13%(67%) Sample size 12 Average positive next three day return: 2.1%(42%) Average negative next three day return: -2.18%(58%) Sample size 12 Average positive next weekly return: 2.43%(50%) Average negative next weekly return: -3.08%(50%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20151223

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Nov_23_2015	71.22	66.21	66.24	67.2	67.43	68.62	69.55(1.65%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.2	47	130	56	20	6.28	29%	-0.03	41.4	2.31%	0	1.7	55	0
2	Nov_20_2015	71.24	65.91	65.99	65.85	66.19	67.6	68.42(1.88%)	N/A	N/A	0	1.3	47	160	63	-1	3.31	27%	-0.17	22.8	2.38%	0	1.3	57	0
3	Nov_19_2015	71.36	65.62	65.9	64.6	64.75	66.23	67.16(0.8%)	N/A	N/A	0	1.3	25	170	42	-28	2.81	29%	-0.18	3.4	2.36%	0	0.8	57	0
4	Nov_18_2015	71.49	65.5	65.92	64.49	64.02	64.77	66.63(3.74%)	N/A	N/A	0	1.1	15	60	29	-27	2.92	29%	-0.17	6.6	2.37%	0	0.6	58	0
5	Nov_17_2015	71.61	65.38	65.96	64.46	64.29	64.77	64.23(2.29%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-24	-120	-19	-37	3.76	25%	-0.21	13.2	2.33%	0	-0.6	54	0

6	Nov_16_2015	71.76	65.39	66.3	65.18	65.04	63.27	62.79(0.93%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-1.3	-63	-200	-74	-28	2.83	25%	-0.28	26	2.31%	0	-1.4	54	0
7	Nov_13_2015	71.96	65.46	66.68	66.15	66.38	65.31	62.21(-6.55%)	N/A	N/A	0	-2.1	-41	-100	-58	9	6.26	25%	-0.25	43.3	2.31%	0	-1.7	49	0
8	Nov_12_2015	72.14	65.55	67.08	67.3	67.18	66.82	66.57(0.11%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.4	-2	-40	-24	65	3.05	27%	-0.19	63.4	2.17%	0	0.6	74	0
9	Nov_11_2015	72.28	65.37	66.94	67.53	67.62	67.45	66.5(-1.99%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.5	16	-10	-5	80	3.36	27%	-0.19	63.7	2.17%	0	0.6	58	0
10	Nov_10_2015	72.42	65.13	66.72	67.66	67.68	67.55	67.85(0.35%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.1	19	-10	-3	85	3	27%	-0.18	62.8	2.16%	0	1.4	65	0

11	Nov_9_2015	72.55	64.9	66.25	67.6	67.58	67.78	67.61(-0.53%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0	23	20	3	84	1.77	27%	-0.17	61.1	2.17%	0	1.4	65	0
12	Nov_6_2015	72.67	64.67	65.87	67.32	67.6	67.81	67.97(0.38%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	41	30	25	87	2.77	27%	-0.18	47.5	2.17%	0	1.8	68	0
13	Nov_5_2015	72.8	64.42	65.33	66.83	66.96	67.38	67.71(0.82%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	29	50	15	70	1.17	27%	-0.16	33	2.17%	0	1.9	69	0
14	Nov_4_2015	72.92	64.13	65.01	66.26	66.42	67.4	67.16(-0.58%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.6	48	110	39	75	2.03	27%	-0.15	10.4	2.17%	0	2	70	0
15	Nov_3_2015	73.03	63.91	64.7	65.62	65.64	66.55	67.55(2.01%)	UT	HoldLong	65	1.4	58	100	52	77	3.74	27%	-0.15	-13.4	2.17%	0	2.6	76	0

16	Nov_2_2015	73.14	63.76	64.33	64.71	64.67	65.44	66.22(1.11%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1	38	80	33	51	2.54	27%	-0.16	-32.9	2.15%	0	1.7	60	0
17	Oct_30_2015	73.26	63.82	64.07	64.2	64.01	64.73	65.49(0.97%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	37	70	35	44	2.21	27%	-0.19	-42.9	2.15%	0	1.1	59	0
18	Oct_29_2015	73.4	63.87	63.86	63.61	63.5	63.89	64.86(1.41%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	18	40	16	23	2.02	27%	-0.18	-57.9	2.14%	0	0.6	56	0
19	Oct_28_2015	73.53	63.97	63.65	63.6	63.39	63.3	63.96(1.49%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	5	-20	-0	19	1.83	27%	-0.18	-60.2	2.14%	0	-0	58	0
20	Oct_27_2015	73.66	64.09	63.41	63.66	63.66	63.12	63.02(-1.04%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.4	-11	-60	-17	9	2.72	27%	-0.2	-66	2.13%	0	-0.6	51	0

21	Oct_26_2015	73.81	64.25	63.46	63.88	64	63.49	63.68(1.84%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.1	-14	-50	-20	6	2.58	27%	-0.19	-63.1	2.13%	0	-0.3	44	0
22	Oct_23_2015	73.95	64.48	63.4	63.91	64.18	64.2	62.53(-3.5%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-9	10	-9	-9	3.77	27%	-0.22	-53.2	2.11%	0	-0.8	32	0
23	Oct_22_2015	74.11	64.84	63.49	64.1	64.09	64.51	64.8(0.81%)	RB	SmallLong	20	0.3	13	50	20	-7	2.98	28%	-0.2	-43.1	2.08%	0	-0	42	0
24	Oct_21_2015	74.26	65.04	63.22	63.7	63.74	64.16	64.28(0.25%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.2	13	50	29	-36	1.86	27%	-0.17	-42	2.07%	0	-0.3	38	0
25	Oct_20_2015	74.39	65.3	63.07	63.12	63.17	63.67	64.12(0.45%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.4	-6	60	16	-71	2.02	27%		-43.2	2.08%	0	-0.4	41	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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