Trading Signals: DLTR Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Thu. Mar. 5, 2015

Trading Signals: DLTR Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Fri. Mar. 14, 2014 - Wed. Sep. 27, 2023)

(Dollar Tree)
DLTR latest price $79.4300 (0.75%) ($78.8800 - $79.7100) on Thu. Mar. 5, 2015.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   1.32% (three month average)
RSI   75
Latest Price   $79.4300(0.75%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   DLTR advances 0.1% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   DLTR advances 1.8% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support DLTR advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
IVE(41%)    SPY(41%)    XLY(41%)    XRT(41%)    VYM(39%)
Factors Impacting DLTR price   DLTR will decline at least -0.66% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-19%)    TLT(-9%)    UUP(-5%)    IGOV(-4%)    GDXJ(-3%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.66% (StdDev 1.32%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 0.4%

5 Day Moving Average   $79.41(0.03%)
10 Day Moving Average   $78.86(0.72%)
20 Day Moving Average   $77.57(2.4%)
To recent high   -0.6%
To recent low   19.6%
Market Cap   $18.841b

Dollar Tree, Inc. owns and operates discount variety stores offering merchandise at the fixed prices. It operates through Dollar Tree and Family Dollar segments. The company offers selection of everyday basic products and its supplement these basic, everyday items with seasonal, closeout and promotional merchandise. The merchandise mix consists of three types: Consumable, Variety categories and Seasonal merchandise. The Consumable merchandise includes candy and food, health and beauty care, and household consumables such as paper, plastics and household chemicals and in select stores, frozen and refrigerated food. The Variety categories merchandise includes toys, durable house wares, gifts, party goods, greeting cards, soft lines and other items. The Seasonal goods include Easter, Halloween and Christmas merchandise. Dollar Tree was founded by J. Douglas Perry and Macon F. Brock, Jr. in 1986 and is headquartered in Chesapeake, VA.

$. DLTR price fluctuates within 2% (three month std-dev: 1.32%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 5 Average positive next day return: 0.38%(40%) Average negative next day return: -0.3%(60%) Sample size 5 Average positive next three day return: 2.56%(40%) Average negative next three day return: -2.38%(60%) Sample size 5 Average positive next weekly return: 1.77%(60%) Average negative next weekly return: -3.79%(40%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20150405

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Mar_5_2015	68.5	77.57	78.86	79.41	79.4	79.15	79.43(0.75%)	UD	OpenLong	65	0	17	-20	-4	79	1.88	57%	0.37	109.5	1.32%	0	1.2	75	INF
2	Mar_4_2015	68.25	77.35	78.6	79.33	79.39	79.29	78.84(-0.4%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.3	7	-10	-15	73	2.46	57%	0.35	123.2	1.33%	0	0.9	65	INF
3	Mar_3_2015	68.01	77.13	78.43	79.39	79.38	79.65	79.16(-0.95%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	37	20	17	97	3.45	57%	0.35	129.1	1.33%	0	1.2	71	INF
4	Mar_2_2015	67.77	76.8	78.19	79.05	79.18	79.5	79.92(0.3%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.5	53	30	35	106	3.48	59%	0.37	114.4	1.32%	0	1.7	80	INF
5	Feb_27_2015	67.52	76.37	77.87	78.63	78.67	79.1	79.68(0.81%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.5	44	40	25	100	4.15	60%	0.36	94.9	1.32%	0	1.6	77	INF

6	Feb_26_2015	67.28	75.91	77.49	78.23	78.31	78.86	79.04(-0.15%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	56	50	43	95	2.76	60%	0.34	81.4	1.33%	0	1.3	67	INF
7	Feb_25_2015	67.05	75.47	77.24	77.76	77.85	78.24	79.16(2.18%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	49	40	36	87	5.62	60%	0.34	74.8	1.33%	0	1.5	71	INF
8	Feb_24_2015	66.82	75.07	76.88	77.34	77.43	77.76	77.47(-0.42%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	33	30	19	76	2.22	59%	0.33	78.7	1.31%	0	1	69	INF
9	Feb_23_2015	66.6	74.72	76.64	77.19	77.22	77.46	77.8(0.14%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.2	41	20	24	90	3.39	59%	0.33	81.1	1.31%	0	1.2	79	INF
10	Feb_20_2015	66.38	74.43	76.36	76.99	76.95	77.11	77.69(1.29%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.3	39	10	17	104	2.61	64%	0.35	91.9	1.31%	0	1.3	81	INF

11	Feb_19_2015	66.15	74.06	76.17	76.99	76.72	76.99	76.7(-0.42%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0	36	30	11	112	2.25	65%	0.33	93.7	1.45%	0	1	82	INF
12	Feb_18_2015	65.93	73.63	76.01	76.62	76.53	76.78	77.02(0.38%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.1	51	20	20	145	2.34	65%	0.33	86.1	1.45%	0	1.2	84	INF
13	Feb_17_2015	65.71	73.16	75.75	76.35	76.34	76.46	76.73(-0.12%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	54	10	20	156	2.3	65%	0.49	75.8	1.45%	0	1.2	73	INF
14	Feb_13_2015	65.39	72.67	75.32	75.99	76.01	76.27	76.82(1.28%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	51	20	15	157	2.51	65%	0.34	65.1	1.45%	0	1.3	75	INF
15	Feb_12_2015	65.17	72.15	74.77	75.64	75.67	76.22	75.85(-1.06%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	52	50	20	147	4.29	65%	0.31	54	1.44%	0	1.1	63	INF

16	Feb_11_2015	64.97	71.73	74.23	75.65	75.51	75.75	76.66(1.25%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	62	20	30	157	4.37	65%	0.32	49.6	1.43%	0	1.5	71	INF
17	Feb_10_2015	64.76	71.29	73.57	75.32	75.41	75.13	75.71(1.08%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.1	41	-20	4	151	2.83	65%	0.31	48	1.43%	0	1.4	75	INF
18	Feb_9_2015	64.56	70.95	73.13	75.06	75.24	75.27	74.9(-0.23%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	45	10	4	169	2.76	65%	0.28	48.4	1.43%	0	1.3	75	INF
19	Feb_6_2015	64.38	70.67	72.68	74.52	74.85	75.69	75.07(-1.12%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	89	90	53	195	2.37	66%	0.3	44.5	1.43%	0	1.6	77	INF
20	Feb_5_2015	64.19	70.44	72.35	73.73	73.82	75.21	75.92(1.23%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.8	122	140	90	219	4.84	66%	0.31	40.8	1.43%	0	2.1	80	INF

21	Feb_4_2015	63.99	70.15	71.76	72.58	72.58	74.01	75(0.82%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.1	125	140	99	204	5.4	66%	0.31	33.2	1.43%	0	2.1	74	INF
22	Feb_3_2015	63.79	69.81	71.04	71.57	71.43	72.42	74.39(2.99%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.4	92	90	69	161	4.68	66%	0.3	19.7	1.43%	0	2.3	69	INF
23	Feb_2_2015	63.6	69.55	70.32	70.96	70.81	71.16	72.23(1.59%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	60	30	39	123	5.05	64%	0.27	13.4	1.38%	0	1.6	58	INF
24	Jan_30_2015	63.43	69.43	69.78	70.58	70.59	70.44	71.1(1.31%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.3	15	-10	-6	78	6.24	65%	0.25	9.5	1.39%	0	1	55	INF
25	Jan_29_2015	63.27	69.38	69.33	70.78	70.67	70.46	70.18(0.31%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.4	1	-30	-17	55	3.85	65%		13.8	1.39%	0	0.5	46	INF
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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