Trading Signals: DLTR Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Mon. May. 12, 2014

Trading Signals: DLTR Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Fri. Mar. 14, 2014 - Wed. Sep. 27, 2023)

(Dollar Tree)
DLTR latest price $53.3100 (1.02%) ($52.7300 - $53.3500) on Mon. May. 12, 2014.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   0.98% (three month average)
RSI   66
Latest Price   $53.3100(1.02%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   DLTR advances 0.5% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   DLTR advances 0.8% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support DLTR advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
XLY(42%)    XRT(42%)    SPY(41%)    IWM(38%)    VT(38%)
Factors Impacting DLTR price   DLTR will decline at least -0.49% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-10%)    UUP(-4%)    IGOV(-4%)    VIXM(-3%)    GDXJ(-3%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.49% (StdDev 0.98%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 1%

5 Day Moving Average   $52.33(1.87%)
10 Day Moving Average   $52.16(2.2%)
20 Day Moving Average   $51.69(3.13%)
To recent high   -1.1%
To recent low   5.2%
Market Cap   $12.645b

Dollar Tree, Inc. owns and operates discount variety stores offering merchandise at the fixed prices. It operates through Dollar Tree and Family Dollar segments. The company offers selection of everyday basic products and its supplement these basic, everyday items with seasonal, closeout and promotional merchandise. The merchandise mix consists of three types: Consumable, Variety categories and Seasonal merchandise. The Consumable merchandise includes candy and food, health and beauty care, and household consumables such as paper, plastics and household chemicals and in select stores, frozen and refrigerated food. The Variety categories merchandise includes toys, durable house wares, gifts, party goods, greeting cards, soft lines and other items. The Seasonal goods include Easter, Halloween and Christmas merchandise. Dollar Tree was founded by J. Douglas Perry and Macon F. Brock, Jr. in 1986 and is headquartered in Chesapeake, VA.

$. DLTR price fluctuates within 1.32% (three month std-dev: 0.98%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 15 Average positive next day return: 0.41%(80%) Average negative next day return: -0.35%(20%) Sample size 15 Average positive next three day return: 1.6%(40%) Average negative next three day return: -1.04%(60%) Sample size 15 Average positive next weekly return: 1.58%(47%) Average negative next weekly return: -1.12%(53%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20140612

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	May_12_2014	51.99	51.69	52.16	52.33	52.3	52.66	53.31(1.02%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.4	48	50	42	66	1.52	55%	0.06	47	0.98%	0	2.4	66	INF
2	May_9_2014	51.96	51.56	52.01	52.07	52.01	52.22	52.77(1.4%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.2	28	20	19	54	1.36	52%	0.04	32.5	0.98%	0	2.1	69	NAN
3	May_8_2014	51.94	51.56	51.86	52.01	51.95	51.94	52.04(0.23%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.1	21	-0	10	52	1.76	49%	0	16.5	0.96%	0	1.1	59	NAN
4	May_7_2014	51.94	51.45	51.8	51.93	51.96	51.8	51.92(0.64%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0	3	-20	-12	46	1.64	49%	0	6.7	0.97%	0	0.9	62	NAN
5	May_6_2014	51.94	51.4	51.76	51.96	52.02	51.97	51.59(-0.81%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.7	11	-0	-5	60	1.26	49%	-0.02	-4.8	0.98%	0	0.4	59	NAN

6	May_5_2014	51.95	51.4	51.74	51.95	51.97	52.11	52.01(-0.93%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	21	20	5	69	1.01	49%	0.02	-16.2	0.98%	0	1.2	61	NAN
7	May_2_2014	51.94	51.37	51.62	51.92	51.9	52.08	52.5(1.67%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.1	38	20	25	75	1.43	49%	0.02	-17.8	0.99%	0	2.1	67	NAN
8	May_1_2014	51.93	51.36	51.47	51.69	51.8	51.83	51.64(-0.83%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	25	10	13	62	1.16	44%	-0.02	-20.4	0.95%	0	0.5	60	NAN
9	Apr_30_2014	51.94	51.41	51.38	51.65	51.64	51.71	52.07(1.09%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	12	10	2	40	1.34	44%	0.02	-14.8	0.96%	0	1	47	NAN
10	Apr_29_2014	51.93	51.42	51.24	51.54	51.61	51.78	51.51(-0.73%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0	19	30	13	36	1.19	40%	-0.04	-15.2	0.95%	0	0.1	56	NAN

11	Apr_28_2014	51.95	51.45	51.19	51.51	51.58	51.57	51.89(1.03%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	27	0	23	38	1.29	40%	0	-16.9	0.96%	0	0.6	58	NAN
12	Apr_25_2014	51.95	51.46	51.07	51.26	51.39	51.44	51.36(-0.12%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	0.1	-3	10	-2	-4	1.2	36%	-0.04	-30.4	0.95%	0	-0.1	43	NAN
13	Apr_24_2014	51.97	51.48	51.01	51.21	51.28	51.59	51.42(-0.17%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.3	14	50	25	-18	0.72	36%	-0.04	-42	0.97%	0	-0.1	39	NAN
14	Apr_23_2014	51.99	51.51	51.07	51.06	51.11	51.33	51.51(0.29%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.6	14	30	29	-33	1.18	36%	-0.04	-55	0.99%	0	0	39	NAN
15	Apr_22_2014	52.01	51.53	51	50.91	50.94	50.97	51.36(1.36%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.6	-10	10	9	-68	1.63	36%	-0.04	-71.1	1%	0	-0.2	41	NAN

16	Apr_21_2014	52.03	51.57	50.95	50.82	50.89	50.89	50.67(-0.82%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-26	0	-3	-96	1.33	30%	-0.1	-82.5	0.97%	0	-1.2	39	NAN
17	Apr_17_2014	52.08	51.68	51.09	50.84	50.9	50.92	51.09(0.79%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.3	-19	10	6	-92	1.39	30%	-0.1	-82.2	0.99%	0	-0.7	42	NAN
18	Apr_16_2014	52.13	51.78	51.24	50.78	50.84	50.88	50.69(-0.08%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-36	10	-15	-97	1.02	30%	-0.11	0	0.98%	0	-1.3	42	NAN
19	Apr_15_2014	52.19	51.91	51.45	51.07	50.96	50.87	50.73(-0.41%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-19	-20	-3	-65	1.98	30%	-0.11	0	1%	0	-1.3	41	NAN
20	Apr_14_2014	52.25	52.06	51.62	51.07	51.14	50.79	50.94(0.39%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-24	-50	-12	-61	2.05	30%	-0.13	0	1.03%	0	-1.2	43	NAN

21	Apr_11_2014	52.32	52.19	51.75	51.1	51.13	51.04	50.74(-0.14%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-47	-10	-38	-72	3.01	30%	-0.15	0	1.04%	0	-1.6	38	NAN
22	Apr_10_2014	52.4	52.35	51.9	51.38	51.33	51.49	50.81(-2.53%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-19	20	-9	-50	2.42	30%	-0.15	0	1.07%	0	-1.8	36	NAN
23	Apr_9_2014	52.48	52.35	52.01	51.77	51.6	51.21	52.13(2.44%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.4	-11	-60	-13	-5	2.78	37%	-0.04	0	0.96%	0	63.6	38	NAN
24	Apr_8_2014	52.5	52.35	52	51.9	51.92	51.16	50.89(-0.1%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.2	-77	-100	-91	-36	1.94	20%	-0.17	0	0.74%	0	60.6	25	NAN
25	Apr_7_2014	52.59	52.35	52.12	52.22	52.36	52	50.94(-2.25%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-1.7	-55	-40	-64	-26	2.77	20%		0	0.76%	0	66.2	23	NAN
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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