Trading Signals: DIA Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Tue. Feb. 21, 2017

Trading Signals: DIA Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Fri. Dec. 20, 2013 - Fri. May. 24, 2024)

(SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF)
DIA latest price $199.5745 (0.58%) ($198.9480 - $199.7962) on Tue. Feb. 21, 2017.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   0.39% (three month average)
RSI   98
Latest Price   $199.5745(0.58%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   DIA advances 0.3% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   DIA advances 1.8% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Broad based rally for large cap. Broad based rally for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support DIA advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
XHB(74%)    GDXJ(24%)    VCIT(10%)    SIL(9%)    VCSH(9%)
Factors Impacting DIA price   DIA will decline at least -0.195% in a week (0% probabilities).
EMHY(-14%)    INDA(-12%)    SHY(-9%)    SPLV(-8%)    XLU(-7%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.195% (StdDev 0.39%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 0.2%

5 Day Moving Average   $198.41(0.59%)
10 Day Moving Average   $196.41(1.61%)
20 Day Moving Average   $194.23(2.75%)
To recent high   0%
To recent low   10%
Market Cap   $N/A

Average Volume    million
BBV (position on Bollinger band)   1.9
One Month Target Price   > $199.57
(if BBV positive, VIX trend negative.)
Correction Price   < $195.68

Fed Fund Rate   % ()
Yield Curve    (0)
Credit Spread    (0)

$. The price is 0% to new high. In the past, the price will move at least 10% above the recent low once it hits new high. Now it's -6.1% away from the target price of 199.57.
$. DIA price fluctuates within 1.46% (three month std-dev: 0.39%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 15 Average positive next day return: 0.9%(33%) Average negative next day return: -1.06%(67%) Sample size 15 Average positive next three day return: 0.64%(53%) Average negative next three day return: -1.08%(47%) Sample size 15 Average positive next weekly return: 1.16%(60%) Average negative next weekly return: -1.14%(40%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20170321

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Feb_21_2017	184.82	194.23	196.41	198.41	198.42	198.69	199.57(0.58%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.4	181	10	131	331	3.08	84%	0.2	77.4	0.39%	0	1.9	98	0
2	Feb_17_2017	184.45	193.74	195.7	197.75	197.74	198.21	198.43(-0.02%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	123	20	68	289	5.75	83%	0.15	74.1	0.39%	0	1.7	85	0
3	Feb_16_2017	184.18	193.32	195.11	197.04	197.21	198.14	198.47(0.05%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	235	40	207	317	4.59	83%	0.13	69.2	0.39%	0	2	74	0
4	Feb_15_2017	183.94	192.86	194.35	196.12	196.28	197.27	198.37(0.59%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1	251	40	241	279	3.65	83%	0.14	62.3	0.39%	0	2.3	73	0
5	Feb_14_2017	183.68	192.43	193.59	194.99	195.19	196.28	197.21(0.47%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.1	223	40	226	215	3.59	82%	0.14	56.7	0.39%	0	2.4	71	0

6	Feb_13_2017	183.43	192.06	192.92	194.11	194.2	195.29	196.27(0.72%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.3	216	40	229	176	2.64	81%	0.13	50	0.39%	0	2.4	74	0
7	Feb_10_2017	183.2	191.77	192.42	193.36	193.47	194.1	194.87(0.51%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.1	175	20	187	140	2.88	82%	0.11	44.6	0.38%	0	2.2	74	0
8	Feb_9_2017	183	191.55	192.19	192.9	192.91	193.11	193.89(0.6%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	78	10	73	91	3.49	84%	0.11	42.2	0.4%	0	1.9	70	0
9	Feb_8_2017	182.8	191.42	192.06	192.31	192.59	192.84	192.73(-0.03%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.4	63	10	57	79	2.29	83%	0.12	31.6	0.43%	0	1.2	70	0
10	Feb_7_2017	182.59	191.3	192.04	191.94	192.1	192.72	192.79(0.15%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	90	30	88	95	2.61	86%	0.11	23.2	0.43%	0	1.4	65	0

11	Feb_6_2017	182.39	191.2	191.87	191.52	191.63	192.33	192.51(-0.05%)	UD	OpenLong	75	1	111	30	117	91	2.77	86%	0.12	18.9	0.49%	0	1.3	63	0
12	Feb_3_2017	182.18	191.14	191.64	191.35	191.19	191.48	192.6(0.89%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.3	63	10	64	60	4.86	86%	0.1	21.6	0.49%	0	1.5	59	0
13	Feb_2_2017	181.99	191.05	191.41	191.39	191.05	190.93	190.9(-0.01%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.5	-24	-10	-38	18	2.64	85%	0.11	27.1	0.49%	0	-0.2	51	0
14	Feb_1_2017	181.79	191.06	191.29	191.8	191.58	190.9	190.92(0.14%)	N/A	N/A	0	-1	-42	-30	-61	14	3.68	80%	0.1	39.6	0.49%	0	-0.2	47	0
15	Jan_31_2017	181.6	191.05	191.22	192.14	192.02	191.16	190.66(-0.51%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.6	-105	-30	-138	-7	4.63	80%	0.09	47.9	0.5%	0	-0.4	52	0

16	Jan_30_2017	181.43	191.01	191.19	192.24	192.45	192.26	191.64(-0.62%)	CR	SmallShort	-20	-0.6	-24	-0	-42	32	4.72	84%	0.11	42.9	0.49%	0	0.7	54	0
17	Jan_27_2017	181.23	190.93	191.11	191.93	192.21	192.88	192.84(-0.04%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.9	77	30	80	67	3.58	89%	0.09	29.4	0.48%	0	2	55	0
18	Jan_26_2017	181.06	190.79	190.89	191.41	191.5	192.65	192.93(0.15%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.7	149	40	171	84	4	89%	0.09	8.7	0.49%	0	2.4	60	0
19	Jan_25_2017	180.89	190.69	190.7	190.72	190.79	191.54	192.64(0.79%)	UT	OpenLong	75	2.6	146	30	174	62	4.88	89%	0.09	-13.2	0.49%	0	2.7	56	0
20	Jan_24_2017	180.73	190.69	190.47	190.2	190.11	190.35	191.12(0.54%)	N/A	N/A	0	1.6	32	10	45	-8	5.21	88%	0.06	-33.3	0.48%	0	0.9	53	0

21	Jan_23_2017	180.62	190.6	190.43	190.02	189.95	190.05	190.1(-0.09%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.1	3	0	11	-22	3.25	87%	0.08	-36.7	0.48%	0	-0.9	54	0
22	Jan_20_2017	180.47	190.65	190.57	190.16	190.01	189.88	190.28(0.44%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.2	-15	-10	-13	-19	7	87%	0.08	-19.4	0.48%	0	-0.6	52	0
23	Jan_19_2017	180.32	190.71	190.63	190.28	190.22	189.85	189.44(-0.34%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.4	-48	-10	-55	-28	3.05	87%	0.08	-9.7	0.48%	0	-2.2	46	0
24	Jan_18_2017	180.17	190.78	190.82	190.67	190.46	190.15	190.08(-0.07%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.1	-52	-10	-64	-17	4.63	87%	0.08	18.5	0.48%	0	-1.3	42	0
25	Jan_17_2017	180.02	190.8	190.88	190.76	190.71	190.59	190.22(-0.31%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1	-23	-10	-29	-4	3.33	87%		29.6	0.48%	0	-1.1	44	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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