Trading Signals: DIA Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Wed. Jul. 20, 2016

Trading Signals: DIA Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Fri. Dec. 20, 2013 - Tue. May. 21, 2024)

(SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF)
DIA latest price $176.3603 (0.19%) ($175.9900 - $176.6451) on Wed. Jul. 20, 2016.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   0.81% (three month average)
RSI   88
Latest Price   $176.3603(0.19%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   DIA advances 0.3% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   DIA advances 1.9% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Growth stock rally for large cap. Growth stock rally for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support DIA advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
XHB(74%)    GDXJ(22%)    VCIT(10%)    SIL(9%)    TAN(9%)
Factors Impacting DIA price   DIA will decline at least -0.405% in a week (0% probabilities).
EMHY(-13%)    INDA(-10%)    SHY(-9%)    UUP(-7%)    XLU(-6%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.405% (StdDev 0.81%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend -0.1%

5 Day Moving Average   $175.78(0.33%)
10 Day Moving Average   $174.26(1.21%)
20 Day Moving Average   $171.16(3.04%)
To recent high   0%
To recent low   8.6%
Market Cap   $N/A

Average Volume    million
BBV (position on Bollinger band)   1.3
One Month Target Price   > $176.36
(if BBV positive, VIX trend negative.)
Correction Price   < $169.22

Fed Fund Rate   % ()
Yield Curve    (0)
Credit Spread    (0)

$. The price is 0% to new high. In the past, the price will move at least 10% above the recent low once it hits new high. Now it's -0.5% away from the target price of 176.36.
$. DIA price fluctuates within 2.32% (three month std-dev: 0.81%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 23 Average positive next day return: 0.81%(61%) Average negative next day return: -0.8%(39%) Sample size 23 Average positive next three day return: 1%(57%) Average negative next three day return: -2.4%(43%) Sample size 23 Average positive next weekly return: 1.54%(57%) Average negative next weekly return: -3.06%(43%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20160820

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Jul_20_2016	167.46	171.16	174.26	175.78	175.86	176.07	176.36(0.19%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.1	68	10	38	157	2.16	53%	0.11	52.2	0.81%	0	1.3	88	0
2	Jul_19_2016	167.28	170.77	173.62	175.34	175.62	175.7	176.02(0.18%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.2	60	10	25	163	2.05	53%	0.13	53.6	0.81%	0	1.4	91	0
3	Jul_18_2016	167.06	170.38	172.93	174.93	175.2	175.64	175.7(0.11%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.2	71	20	32	187	2.13	53%	0.11	55	0.81%	0	1.5	92	0
4	Jul_15_2016	166.87	169.95	172.36	174.34	174.74	175.54	175.51(0.11%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.3	119	40	85	219	3.84	53%	0.11	51.2	0.81%	0	1.6	78	0
5	Jul_14_2016	166.68	169.55	171.78	173.64	174.02	174.76	175.32(0.66%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	131	40	104	210	3.35	53%	0.13	46.2	0.81%	0	1.8	57	0

6	Jul_13_2016	166.47	169.12	171	172.49	173.02	173.94	174.16(0.11%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	116	50	95	179	2.39	54%	0.12	34.5	0.81%	0	1.7	60	0
7	Jul_12_2016	166.27	168.76	170.09	171.62	171.92	173.27	173.96(0.7%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	137	60	130	157	3.13	54%	0.11	24.8	0.82%	0	2	58	0
8	Jul_11_2016	166.09	168.43	168.96	170.63	170.73	172.09	172.76(0.45%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	128	60	133	112	2.36	54%	0.12	12.9	0.82%	0	1.8	57	0
9	Jul_8_2016	165.89	168.22	168.16	170.1	169.82	170.58	171.98(1.4%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	88	30	93	74	5.18	54%	0.11	8.7	0.82%	0	1.8	59	0
10	Jul_7_2016	165.71	168.1	167.94	169.67	169.45	169.37	169.6(-0.11%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0	38	-10	34	51	2.34	52%	0.09	6.7	0.8%	0	0.7	53	0

11	Jul_6_2016	165.56	168.12	167.8	169.26	169.23	169.06	169.78(0.43%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	12	-10	4	34	5.4	52%	0.11	5.7	0.81%	0	0.8	56	0
12	Jul_5_2016	165.38	168.11	167.68	168.28	168.7	169.54	169.05(-0.61%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.4	65	40	72	44	3.23	52%	0.12	-4.1	0.82%	0	0.5	54	0
13	Jul_1_2016	165.18	168.12	167.61	166.95	167.49	169.4	170.09(0.17%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.5	147	90	177	57	4	52%	0.14	-20.7	0.81%	0	1	54	0
14	Jun_30_2016	164.95	168.03	167.32	165.9	165.7	167.86	169.8(1.34%)	UT	OpenLong	75	2	132	90	169	20	5.07	52%	0.13	-36.4	0.81%	0	0.9	50	0
15	Jun_29_2016	164.74	167.97	167.1	166.05	164.89	165.57	167.56(1.62%)	RB	SmallLong	20	0.8	65	10	93	-18	5.58	49%	0.11	-35	0.8%	0	-0.2	43	0

16	Jun_28_2016	164.56	168.01	167.06	166.23	165.7	163.55	164.89(1.53%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.7	-103	-100	-101	-107	5.64	46%	0.09	-31	0.77%	0	-1.6	35	0
17	Jun_27_2016	164.41	168.19	167.33	167.03	166.86	164.21	162.4(-1.47%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-2.5	-290	-110	-324	-189	7.69	42%	0.07	-14.4	0.75%	0	-3.1	30	0
18	Jun_24_2016	164.3	168.55	167.94	168.28	168.39	167.86	164.83(-3.36%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-2.7	-142	-20	-157	-98	11.38	45%	0.07	18.2	0.73%	0	-2.9	35	0
19	Jun_23_2016	164.19	168.76	168.4	168.81	169.27	169.5	170.57(1.26%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.8	71	20	90	13	2.95	54%	0.11	61.4	0.6%	0	1.9	58	0
20	Jun_22_2016	164.01	168.66	168.32	168.29	168.64	168.92	168.44(-0.28%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.2	8	20	19	-27	2.97	50%	0.1	67.3	0.58%	0	-0.2	48	0

21	Jun_21_2016	163.84	168.62	168.5	168.04	168.17	169.04	168.91(0.15%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	64	40	84	2	1.85	50%	0.1	65.5	0.58%	0	0.3	54	0
22	Jun_20_2016	163.68	168.46	168.58	167.73	167.82	168.35	168.66(0.73%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	91	20	117	13	2.96	50%	0.09	38.2	0.58%	0	0.2	54	0
23	Jun_17_2016	163.53	168.31	168.66	167.58	167.38	168.35	167.45(-0.33%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-25	-10	-19	-44	2.75	48%	0.1	30.8	0.58%	0	-0.7	42	0
24	Jun_16_2016	163.36	168.18	168.79	167.93	167.6	167.29	168(0.5%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0	-51	-20	-53	-46	5.57	48%	0.12	23.4	0.59%	0	-0.1	47	0
25	Jun_15_2016	163.17	168.07	168.88	168.39	168.14	167.48	167.16(-0.14%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.7	-72	-30	-82	-42	2.47	48%		25.3	0.59%	0	-0.5	41	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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