Trading Signals: DIA Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Fri. Nov. 6, 2015

Trading Signals: DIA Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Fri. Dec. 20, 2013 - Wed. Jun. 5, 2024)

(SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF)
DIA latest price $166.8652 (0.28%) ($165.5332 - $166.8931) on Fri. Nov. 6, 2015.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   1.3% (three month average)
RSI   77
Latest Price   $166.8652(0.28%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   DIA advances 0.3% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   DIA advances 1.5% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Broad based rally for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support DIA advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
XHB(74%)    GDXJ(20%)    XBI(13%)    XLI(13%)    XLY(13%)
Factors Impacting DIA price   DIA will decline at least -0.65% in a week (0% probabilities).
SHY(-11%)    EMHY(-10%)    UUP(-6%)    INDA(-5%)    BND(-5%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.65% (StdDev 1.3%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 0.4%

5 Day Moving Average   $166.48(0.23%)
10 Day Moving Average   $165.57(0.78%)
20 Day Moving Average   $163.07(2.33%)
To recent high   0%
To recent low   14.8%
Market Cap   $N/A

Average Volume    million
BBV (position on Bollinger band)   1.2
One Month Target Price   > $166.87
(if BBV positive, VIX trend negative.)
Correction Price   < $156.02

Fed Fund Rate   % ()
Yield Curve    (0)
Credit Spread    (0)

$. The price is 0% to new high. In the past, the price will move at least 10% above the recent low once it hits new high. Now it's -1.8% away from the target price of 166.87.
$. DIA price fluctuates within 1.89% (three month std-dev: 1.3%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 13 Average positive next day return: 0.9%(62%) Average negative next day return: -1.22%(38%) Sample size 13 Average positive next three day return: 2.39%(62%) Average negative next three day return: -1.39%(38%) Sample size 13 Average positive next weekly return: 2.63%(54%) Average negative next weekly return: -2.67%(46%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20151206

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Nov_6_2015	159.64	163.07	165.57	166.48	166.46	166.37	166.87(0.28%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.1	21	-0	4	71	7.64	49%	-0.01	74.6	1.3%	0	1.2	77	INF
2	Nov_5_2015	159.65	162.68	165.31	165.98	166.2	166.37	166.4(-0.01%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	27	20	10	78	5.01	49%	0.01	80.7	1.3%	0	1.2	77	INF
3	Nov_4_2015	159.64	162.28	164.96	165.75	165.85	166.55	166.41(-0.23%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	53	30	38	96	6.87	49%	0.01	89.5	1.3%	0	1.3	79	INF
4	Nov_3_2015	159.63	161.83	164.33	165.57	165.43	165.85	166.8(0.53%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.4	58	20	43	103	4.28	49%	0.02	95.9	1.3%	0	1.6	84	INF
5	Nov_2_2015	159.6	161.29	163.68	164.94	164.99	165.15	165.92(0.92%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	37	10	19	89	4.18	49%	0	102.6	1.3%	0	1.5	74	INF

6	Oct_30_2015	159.6	160.8	163.12	164.54	164.54	165.01	164.4(-0.5%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0	31	20	13	85	6.53	49%	-0.01	104.9	1.29%	0	1.1	68	INF
7	Oct_29_2015	159.62	160.26	162.71	164.52	164.32	164.82	165.23(-0.17%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	54	20	39	100	4.73	49%	-0.01	96.9	1.29%	0	1.4	73	INF
8	Oct_28_2015	159.63	159.58	162.13	164.04	164.06	164.08	165.51(1.14%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	52	0	37	96	7.35	51%	0.01	90.5	1.29%	0	1.5	75	INF
9	Oct_27_2015	159.62	158.88	161.33	162.89	163.37	163.83	163.63(-0.2%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	31	30	17	71	4.7	50%	0	77.8	1.29%	0	1.2	75	INF
10	Oct_26_2015	159.62	158.18	160.84	162.2	162.54	164.05	163.96(-0.2%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.4	78	70	74	91	3.8	50%	-0.01	66.3	1.3%	0	1.3	79	INF

11	Oct_23_2015	159.63	157.43	160.36	161.48	161.53	162.91	164.29(0.9%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.7	104	60	105	102	7.64	49%	-0.01	58.5	1.3%	0	1.6	81	INF
12	Oct_22_2015	159.64	156.79	159.79	160.64	160.49	161.02	162.82(1.94%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.5	59	20	51	84	8.55	49%	-0.03	54.5	1.3%	0	1.5	83	INF
13	Oct_21_2015	159.68	156.17	159.35	159.98	159.99	160.15	159.73(-0.31%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	37	10	22	83	5.8	46%	-0.04	47.8	1.28%	0	0.9	83	INF
14	Oct_20_2015	159.75	155.76	159.12	159.51	159.56	159.96	160.22(-0.06%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	37	20	19	92	4.14	46%	-0.04	40	1.28%	0	1.1	85	INF
15	Oct_19_2015	159.81	155.33	158.72	159.24	159.08	159.83	160.33(0.14%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.3	54	30	34	115	4.86	46%	-0.04	36.8	1.28%	0	1.3	88	INF

16	Oct_16_2015	159.87	154.97	158.3	159.05	158.83	159.17	160.1(0.37%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.3	64	10	39	137	8.35	46%	-0.04	39.1	1.28%	0	1.4	88	INF
17	Oct_15_2015	159.94	154.56	157.64	158.83	158.67	158.33	159.51(1.33%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.2	26	-20	-6	122	9.64	46%	-0.05	39.1	1.28%	0	1.4	71	INF
18	Oct_14_2015	160.02	154.3	156.86	158.65	158.74	158.49	157.41(-0.92%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.4	17	-10	-18	121	5.42	44%	-0.06	44.2	1.27%	0	0.9	70	INF
19	Oct_13_2015	160.12	154.18	156.3	158.63	158.67	159	158.87(-0.31%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	47	20	17	138	5.91	45%	-0.01	52.6	1.27%	0	1.5	72	INF
20	Oct_12_2015	160.13	153.93	155.37	158.08	158.2	158.98	159.37(0.24%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	70	40	48	135	2.84	45%	-0.06	52.3	1.28%	0	1.8	72	INF

21	Oct_9_2015	160.22	153.54	154.32	157.41	157.47	158.35	158.99(0.23%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	82	40	69	121	5.01	47%	-0.06	55.5	1.29%	0	1.9	63	INF
22	Oct_8_2015	160.32	153.21	153.55	156.26	156.55	157.42	158.62(0.84%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	91	40	85	108	8.16	45%	-0.06	50.6	1.29%	0	2.1	65	INF
23	Oct_7_2015	160.42	152.84	152.72	154.79	154.88	156.6	157.3(0.75%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.1	79	80	81	71	8.83	45%	-0.07	38.8	1.29%	0	2	53	INF
24	Oct_6_2015	160.54	152.51	152.08	153.62	153.42	155.68	156.13(0.07%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.3	122	100	142	63	6.66	45%	-0.07	31.5	1.29%	0	1.8	48	INF
25	Oct_5_2015	160.66	152.34	151.6	152.23	152.1	153.16	156.02(1.82%)	UT	OpenLong	75	2	103	50	128	27	6.34	45%		12.2	1.29%	0	2	52	INF
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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