Trading Signals: DIA Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Tue. Feb. 24, 2015

Trading Signals: DIA Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Fri. Dec. 20, 2013 - Mon. Jun. 17, 2024)

(SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF)
DIA latest price $167.1108 (0.55%) ($166.1738 - $167.2486) on Tue. Feb. 24, 2015.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   0.89% (three month average)
RSI   79
Latest Price   $167.1108(0.55%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   DIA advances 0.2% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   DIA advances 1.1% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Value stock rally for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support DIA advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
XHB(74%)    GDXJ(20%)    XLB(17%)    XLI(17%)    XLY(17%)
Factors Impacting DIA price   DIA will decline at least -0.445% in a week (0% probabilities).
SHY(-11%)    VIXM(-8%)    EMHY(-8%)    BND(-6%)    UUP(-4%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.445% (StdDev 0.89%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 0.5%

5 Day Moving Average   $166.01(0.66%)
10 Day Moving Average   $165.33(1.08%)
20 Day Moving Average   $163(2.52%)
To recent high   0%
To recent low   7.1%
Market Cap   $N/A

Average Volume    million
BBV (position on Bollinger band)   1.4
One Month Target Price   > $170.12
(if BBV positive, VIX trend negative.)
Correction Price   < $162.55

Fed Fund Rate   % ()
Yield Curve    (0)
Credit Spread    (0)

$. The price is 0% to new high. In the past, the price will move at least 10% above the recent low once it hits new high. Now it's 1.8% away from the target price of 170.12.
$. DIA price fluctuates within 1.85% (three month std-dev: 0.89%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 11 Average positive next day return: 1.17%(55%) Average negative next day return: -0.43%(45%) Sample size 11 Average positive next three day return: 4.07%(36%) Average negative next three day return: -0.57%(64%) Sample size 11 Average positive next weekly return: 2.71%(55%) Average negative next weekly return: -2.15%(45%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20150324

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Feb_24_2015	159.71	163	165.33	166.01	165.74	166.36	167.11(0.55%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.4	66	20	56	95	4.23	55%	0.09	41.1	0.89%	0	1.4	79	INF
2	Feb_23_2015	159.57	162.71	164.85	165.67	165.36	165.68	166.2(-0.12%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	56	10	42	97	2.74	55%	0.08	42.6	0.89%	0	1.2	83	INF
3	Feb_20_2015	159.45	162.47	164.55	165.47	165.14	165.11	166.4(0.86%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.3	35	-10	11	105	8.91	55%	0.09	48.5	0.89%	0	1.4	87	INF
4	Feb_19_2015	159.31	162.27	164.25	165.15	165.07	165.03	164.99(-0.21%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.1	27	-0	-1	112	2.66	55%	0.08	54.7	0.88%	0	1.1	70	INF
5	Feb_18_2015	159.18	162.04	163.94	164.89	164.96	165.17	165.34(-0.06%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	52	10	24	136	2.72	55%	0.07	53.5	0.88%	0	1.3	76	INF

6	Feb_17_2015	159.07	161.78	163.57	164.53	164.52	165.1	165.43(0.13%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	71	20	45	149	2.85	55%	0.09	49.7	0.88%	0	1.5	68	INF
7	Feb_13_2015	158.92	161.5	162.92	163.89	164.04	164.75	165.22(0.28%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	91	30	75	137	4	55%	0.07	41.1	0.88%	0	1.6	57	INF
8	Feb_12_2015	158.81	161.15	162.13	163.48	163.36	163.94	164.76(0.64%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	61	20	47	101	3.74	55%	0.06	27.2	0.88%	0	1.6	56	INF
9	Feb_11_2015	158.72	160.86	161.58	163.25	163.12	163.32	163.72(0.11%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	51	10	41	81	5.17	55%	0.06	22.8	0.87%	0	1.4	50	INF
10	Feb_10_2015	158.63	160.71	160.96	162.85	163	162.78	163.54(0.8%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	21	-10	11	49	3.57	55%	0.05	24.2	0.87%	0	1.5	56	INF

11	Feb_9_2015	158.55	160.58	160.49	162.45	162.61	162.92	162.24(-0.56%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	15	20	9	34	3.72	55%	0.03	23	0.87%	0	0.9	55	INF
12	Feb_6_2015	158.5	160.58	160.4	161.75	162.15	163.22	163.16(-0.26%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.8	108	50	121	69	7.21	55%	0.04	10.6	0.86%	0	1.4	57	INF
13	Feb_5_2015	158.43	160.56	160.2	160.53	160.72	162.3	163.58(1.14%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.6	108	70	126	54	6.04	55%	0.05	-6	0.86%	0	1.6	62	INF
14	Feb_4_2015	158.35	160.4	160.07	159.68	159.48	161.09	161.73(0.11%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.2	131	70	155	59	5.94	53%	0.04	-28.7	0.86%	0	0.8	56	INF
15	Feb_3_2015	158.29	160.25	159.94	158.8	158.65	159.15	161.54(1.77%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.6	77	20	98	13	7.54	53%	0.04	-58.7	0.86%	0	0.7	50	INF

16	Feb_2_2015	158.22	160.17	159.79	158.3	158.17	157.88	158.74(1.06%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.3	-43	-20	-37	-59	9.44	50%	0.03	-81.3	0.83%	0	-0.8	43	INF
17	Jan_30_2015	158.17	160.37	159.93	158.89	158.49	158.16	157.07(-1.41%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1	-63	-20	-62	-64	11.14	53%	0.01	-74.8	0.83%	0	-1.9	36	INF
18	Jan_29_2015	158.15	160.66	160.11	159.8	159.34	158.45	159.32(1.27%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-69	-50	-70	-67	9.62	56%	0.03	-71.6	0.82%	0	-0.8	37	INF
19	Jan_28_2015	158.11	160.9	160.13	160.53	160.32	158.83	157.32(-1.08%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.9	-115	-70	-127	-77	9.67	55%	0.02	-58.1	0.81%	0	-2.1	43	INF
20	Jan_27_2015	158.08	161.28	160.53	161.2	161.13	160.23	159.03(-1.65%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.3	-94	-40	-111	-44	11.57	58%	0.03	-43.1	0.81%	0	-1.4	53	INF

21	Jan_26_2015	158.04	161.57	160.77	161.44	161.39	161.82	161.7(0.05%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.1	8	20	6	14	3.73	62%	0.04	-30	0.78%	0	0.1	55	INF
22	Jan_23_2015	157.98	161.7	160.8	161.1	161.05	162.02	161.62(-0.85%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	93	40	109	44	4.8	65%	0.04	-18.5	0.78%	0	-0	46	INF
23	Jan_22_2015	157.91	161.85	160.96	160.46	160.25	160.96	163(1.47%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.3	76	30	93	23	9.57	65%	0.05	-8.1	0.78%	0	0.6	49	INF
24	Jan_21_2015	157.83	161.89	160.71	159.73	159.6	160.08	160.65(0.26%)	RB	SmallLong	20	0.4	25	20	44	-31	6.26	65%	0.04	-1.6	0.78%	0	-0.6	39	INF
25	Jan_20_2015	157.77	161.99	160.54	159.82	159.31	159.55	160.23(0.13%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.2	-12	0	7	-70	7.22	65%		8.9	0.79%	0	-0.8	37	INF
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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