Trading Signals: DIA Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Tue. Dec. 30, 2014

Trading Signals: DIA Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Fri. Dec. 20, 2013 - Tue. Jun. 4, 2024)

(SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF)
DIA latest price $164.2705 (-0.36%) ($164.0691 - $164.6458) on Tue. Dec. 30, 2014.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   0.84% (three month average)
RSI   53
Latest Price   $164.2705(-0.36%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Weekly Trend   DIA advances 1.6% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Value stocks sell-off for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support DIA advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
XHB(74%)    GDXJ(19%)    XLB(18%)    XLI(18%)    XLY(18%)
Factors Impacting DIA price   DIA will decline at least -0.42% in a week (0% probabilities).
SHY(-11%)    VIXM(-9%)    EMHY(-8%)    BND(-7%)    UUP(-4%)

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.42% (StdDev 0.84%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend -0.1%

5 Day Moving Average   $164.73(-0.28%)
10 Day Moving Average   $162.9(0.84%)
20 Day Moving Average   $162.18(1.29%)
To recent high   -0.4%
To recent low   12.1%
Market Cap   $N/A

Average Volume    million
BBV (position on Bollinger band)   0.8
One Month Target Price   > $164.27
(if BBV positive, VIX trend negative.)
Correction Price   < $157.37

Fed Fund Rate   % ()
Yield Curve    (0)
Credit Spread    (0)

$. The price is -0.4% to new high. In the past, the price will move at least 10% above the recent low once it hits new high. Now it's -3.7% away from the target price of 164.27.
$. DIA price fluctuates within 1.67% (three month std-dev: 0.84%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 4 Average positive next day return: 0.15%(25%) Average negative next day return: -0.73%(75%) Sample size 4 Average positive next three day return: 1.07%(50%) Average negative next three day return: -0.73%(50%) Sample size 4 Average positive next weekly return: 3.08%(75%) Average negative next weekly return: -0.07%(25%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20150130

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Dec_30_2014	156.73	162.18	162.9	164.73	164.8	164.58	164.27(-0.36%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.2	6	-10	-27	106	2.95	59%	0.09	24.6	0.84%	0	0.8	53	INF
2	Dec_29_2014	156.59	162.06	162.2	164.71	164.9	164.97	164.87(-0.04%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	36	10	14	101	2.53	59%	0.1	24.8	0.84%	0	1.1	53	INF
3	Dec_26_2014	156.43	161.93	161.52	164.26	164.61	165.02	164.94(0.09%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	49	20	40	77	1.92	60%	0.15	22.5	0.84%	0	1.2	50	INF
4	Dec_24_2014	156.19	161.79	161.07	163.75	164.01	164.84	164.79(0%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.4	82	40	85	72	1.65	58%	0.11	20.6	0.86%	0	1.2	52	INF
5	Dec_23_2014	156.02	161.66	160.56	162.51	163.14	164.21	164.79(0.37%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	124	60	147	55	6.22	57%	0.1	9.3	0.87%	0	1.3	51	INF

6	Dec_22_2014	155.87	161.52	160.26	160.76	161.33	163.18	164.18(0.96%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.5	108	90	141	8	7.86	56%	0.1	-7.6	0.88%	0	1.1	51	INF
7	Dec_19_2014	155.72	161.41	160.07	159.3	159.65	162.07	162.61(0.14%)	N/A	N/A	0	1.5	153	110	204	0	11.45	55%	0.08	-23	0.87%	0	0.5	50	INF
8	Dec_18_2014	155.59	161.34	160.14	158.38	158.42	159.49	162.39(2.42%)	RB	SmallLong	20	1.8	107	50	155	-37	9.75	55%	0.06	-33.3	0.87%	0	0.5	48	INF
9	Dec_17_2014	155.49	161.28	160.18	158.06	157.81	157.24	158.55(1.6%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.2	-66	-30	-44	-130	12.9	52%	0.03	-36.2	0.82%	0	-1.2	36	INF
10	Dec_16_2014	155.44	161.43	160.66	158.37	158.69	157.35	156.05(-0.55%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-1.1	-132	-50	-124	-156	12.26	50%	0.02	-31.8	0.8%	0	-2.5	24	INF

11	Dec_15_2014	155.41	161.7	161.4	159.67	159.72	158.39	156.91(-0.7%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.6	-154	-60	-160	-136	8.87	50%	0.02	-17.6	0.8%	0	-2.8	27	INF
12	Dec_12_2014	155.38	161.92	161.98	160.91	160.75	160.03	158.02(-1.72%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-2.1	-114	-30	-122	-91	12.28	50%	0.03	4.7	0.8%	0	-2.8	31	INF
13	Dec_11_2014	155.34	161.92	162.49	162.1	161.82	161.05	160.78(0.42%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-1.2	-56	-40	-63	-33	6.87	53%	0.04	40.3	0.77%	0	-1.2	49	INF
14	Dec_10_2014	155.28	162.09	162.69	162.61	162.52	161.47	160.11(-1.5%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-2.3	-87	-50	-106	-30	7.62	53%	0.03	58.8	0.76%	0	-1.8	47	INF
15	Dec_9_2014	155.23	162.12	162.97	163.28	163.07	162.58	162.55(-0.32%)	CR	SmallShort	-20	-0.7	-61	-20	-83	5	7.95	55%	0.06	88.1	0.74%	0	0.4	65	INF

16	Dec_8_2014	155.14	162.01	162.96	163.39	163.42	163.57	163.08(-0.54%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.3	21	10	10	53	5.57	55%	0.05	97.1	0.74%	0	0.9	74	INF
17	Dec_5_2014	155.06	161.86	162.89	163.21	163.28	163.55	163.96(0.38%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.6	47	10	40	69	4.27	55%	0.07	97.3	0.74%	0	1.8	87	INF
18	Dec_4_2014	154.95	161.65	162.64	162.96	162.86	163.27	163.34(-0.07%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	34	20	25	60	4.79	55%	0.06	106.9	0.74%	0	1.5	84	INF
19	Dec_3_2014	154.86	161.43	162.43	162.81	162.74	163.01	163.46(0.22%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.5	55	10	49	71	11.01	55%	0.06	118.7	0.74%	0	1.7	87	INF
20	Dec_2_2014	154.77	161.17	162.21	162.62	162.55	162.45	163.09(0.54%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.4	16	-10	4	53	3.92	55%	0.06	119.8	0.74%	0	1.5	86	INF

21	Dec_1_2014	154.68	160.92	161.98	162.49	162.5	162.46	162.22(-0.28%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.2	-1	-0	-16	44	6.67	55%	0.06	127.9	0.74%	0	0.9	83	INF
22	Nov_28_2014	154.59	160.71	161.84	162.5	162.59	162.64	162.67(0.05%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.1	25	0	13	60	4.04	55%	0.07	137	0.74%	0	1.3	96	INF
23	Nov_26_2014	154.48	160.41	161.64	162.27	162.55	162.53	162.59(0.03%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.2	31	0	20	63	3.01	55%	0.06	106.2	0.73%	0	1.1	96	INF
24	Nov_25_2014	154.39	160.01	161.42	161.99	162.16	162.54	162.55(0.09%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.2	29	20	18	62	5.51	55%	0.06	102.8	0.73%	0	1.1	97	INF
25	Nov_24_2014	154.3	159.63	161.2	161.72	161.79	162.56	162.4(0.06%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.3	77	30	73	88	2.41	55%		95.1	0.73%	0	1.1	98	INF
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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