Trading Signals: DIA Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Fri. Sep. 5, 2014

Trading Signals: DIA Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Fri. Dec. 20, 2013 - Fri. Jun. 14, 2024)

(SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF)
DIA latest price $155.5109 (0.35%) ($154.3849 - $155.5472) on Fri. Sep. 5, 2014.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   0.49% (three month average)
RSI   88
Latest Price   $155.5109(0.35%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   DIA advances 0.1% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   DIA advances 0.6% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support DIA advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
XHB(74%)    GDXJ(19%)    XLB(19%)    XLI(19%)    XLY(19%)
Factors Impacting DIA price   DIA will decline at least -0.245% in a week (0% probabilities).
SHY(-11%)    VIXM(-10%)    EMHY(-6%)    UUP(-3%)    BNDX(-3%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.245% (StdDev 0.49%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 0.4%

5 Day Moving Average   $155.12(0.25%)
10 Day Moving Average   $155.05(0.3%)
20 Day Moving Average   $153.52(1.3%)
To recent high   0%
To recent low   4.9%
Market Cap   $N/A

Average Volume    million
BBV (position on Bollinger band)   1
One Month Target Price   > $155.51
(if BBV positive, VIX trend negative.)
Correction Price   < $151.7

Fed Fund Rate   % ()
Yield Curve    (0)
Credit Spread    (0)

$. The price is 0% to new high. In the past, the price will move at least 10% above the recent low once it hits new high. Now it's -0% away from the target price of 155.51.
$. DIA price fluctuates within 1.32% (three month std-dev: 0.49%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 6 Average positive next day return: 0.82%(67%) Average negative next day return: -0.45%(33%) Sample size 6 Average positive next three day return: 1.78%(17%) Average negative next three day return: -1.07%(83%) Sample size 6 Average positive next weekly return: 1.63%(33%) Average negative next weekly return: -1.8%(67%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20141005

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Sep_5_2014	151.63	153.52	155.05	155.12		155.1	155.51(0.35%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.2	10	-0	-10	71	3.4	0%	0.06	75	0.49%	0	1	88	INF
2	Sep_4_2014	151.54	153.17	154.95	155.03	155.12	155.22	154.98(-0.04%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0	32	10	10	99	3.76	0%	0.05	63.9	0.5%	0	0.8	84	INF
3	Sep_3_2014	151.47	152.88	154.86	155.1	155.12	155.14	155.03(0.08%)	UT	HoldLong	65	-0	40	0	11	128	2.85	0%	0.06	54.5	0.49%	0	0.9	86	INF
4	Sep_2_2014	151.38	152.56	154.71	155.13	155.05	155.02	154.9(-0.18%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	38	-0	1	150	3.46	0%	0.11	45.4	0.5%	0	0.9	88	INF
5	Aug_29_2014	151.21	152.31	154.5	155.14	155.12	154.96	155.17(0.06%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0	38	-10	-7	174	3.28	0%	0.07	39.3	0.49%	0	1.1	90	INF

6	Aug_28_2014	151.11	152.01	154.11	154.96	155.1	155.09	155.08(-0.14%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0	38	0	-9	178	2.78	0%	0.05	30.6	0.49%	0	1.3	90	INF
7	Aug_27_2014	151.04	151.74	153.74	154.85	154.98	155.28	155.29(0.05%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.2	82	20	37	217	5.16	0%	0.06	22.2	0.49%	0	1.5	94	INF
8	Aug_26_2014	150.95	151.58	153.31	154.59	154.76	155.12	155.22(0.18%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.3	118	20	78	238	3.58	0%	0.06	16.6	0.5%	0	1.7	87	INF
9	Aug_25_2014	150.86	151.44	152.8	154.22	154.36	154.68	154.94(0.44%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.3	108	20	67	232	2.59	0%	0.05	8.7	0.5%	0	1.7	87	INF
10	Aug_22_2014	150.78	151.34	152.31	153.76	153.91	154.4	154.26(-0.18%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	121	30	86	225	5.15	0%	0.03	0.8	0.5%	0	1.5	72	INF

11	Aug_21_2014	150.73	151.27	151.87	153.12	153.38	154.03	154.54(0.34%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.7	148	30	123	221	2.65	0%	0.03	-11.3	0.5%	0	1.6	76	INF
12	Aug_20_2014	150.68	151.27	151.24	152.45	152.62	153.43	154.01(0.42%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	136	40	121	180	3.11	0%	0.04	-17.9	0.51%	0	1.4	69	INF
13	Aug_19_2014	150.62	151.23	150.71	151.83	152	152.73	153.37(0.49%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	141	40	143	136	3.06	100%	0.03	-26.3	0.52%	0	1	49	INF
14	Aug_18_2014	150.57	151.27	150.22	151.16	151.36	151.8	152.61(1.03%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.7	0	20	0	0	2.98	100%	0.04	-34.3	1918.08%	0	0.6	45	INF
15	Aug_15_2014	150.51	151.33	149.92	150.65	150.78	151.26	151.06(-0.09%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.2	0	20	0	-0	7.03	99%	0.03	-39	1918.32%	0	-0.1	36	INF

16	Aug_14_2014	150.46	151.49	149.72	150.42	150.51	150.92	151.2(0.19%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.3	0	20	0	-0	2.75	99%	0.03	-39.2	1918.32%	0	-0.1	37	INF
17	Aug_13_2014	150.41	151.59	149.57	149.83	149.99	150.3	150.92(0.6%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.5	0	20	0	-0	2.84	99%	0.03	-44.2	1918.32%	0	-0.3	32	INF
18	Aug_12_2014	150.37	151.78	149.7	149.41	149.51	150.1	150.01(-0.04%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.3	0	30	0	-0	3.27	99%	0.02	-46.5	1918.32%	0	-0.7	27	INF
19	Aug_11_2014	150.34	151.99	149.96	149.13	149.18	149.68	150.07(0.13%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.4	0	20	0	-0	5.76	99%	0.03	-47.1	1918.32%	0	-0.8	26	INF
20	Aug_8_2014	150.3	152.2	150.28	149.09	148.85	148.92	149.88(1.09%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.3	0	-0	0	-0	5.41	99%	0.02	-48.7	1918.32%	0	-1	29	INF

21	Aug_7_2014	150.27	152.37	150.6	148.95	148.96	148.69	148.26(-0.4%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.3	-0	-10	-0	-0	4.96	99%	0.01	-54.4	1918.32%	0	-1.8	18	INF
22	Aug_6_2014	150.25	152.63	151.22	149.26	149.1	148.77	148.84(0.17%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.2	-0	-20	-0	-0	4.78	99%	0.01	-56.6	1918.32%	0	-1.8	30	INF
23	Aug_5_2014	150.23	152.89	151.79	150.04	149.64	149.24	148.59(-0.85%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.8	-0	-30	-0	-0	8.52	99%	0.02	-51.2	1918.32%	0	-2.3	24	INF
24	Aug_4_2014	150.2	153.13	152.42	150.92	150.65	149.43	149.87(0.46%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.7	-0	-60	-0	-0	4.4	99%	0.03	-43.3	1918.32%	0	-2	31	INF
25	Aug_1_2014	150.15	153.34	152.88	151.66	151.66	150.04	149.18(-0.44%)	N/A	N/A	0	-1.7	-0	-70	-0	-0	7.44	99%		-29.5	1918.32%	0	-2.9	28	INF
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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