Trading Signals: CTRP Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Thu. Dec. 3, 2015

Trading Signals: CTRP Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Fri. Mar. 14, 2014 - Mon. Nov. 4, 2019)

(Ctrip.Com)
CTRP latest price $53.3400 (-0.76%) ($52.9900 - $54.4900) on Thu. Dec. 3, 2015.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   4.28% (three month average)
RSI   60
Latest Price   $53.3400(-0.76%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   CTRP advances 0.3% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   CTRP advances 4.6% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Broad based sell-off for large cap. Broad based sell-off for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support CTRP advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
KWEB(67%)    MCHI(61%)    FXI(55%)    EEM(53%)    VWO(53%)
Factors Impacting CTRP price   CTRP will decline at least -2.14% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-33%)    SHY(-19%)    TLT(-16%)    GLD(-10%)    BND(-10%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -2.14% (StdDev 4.28%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend -2.1%

5 Day Moving Average   $53.27(0.13%)
10 Day Moving Average   $53.77(-0.8%)
20 Day Moving Average   $51.5(3.57%)
To recent high   -4.5%
To recent low   72.5%
Market Cap   $29.631b

Ctrip.com International Ltd. engages in the provision of travel-related services. It provides hotel accommodations, airline tickets, packaged tours, corporate travel management services, property management systems, and advertising services. The company was founded by Jian Zhang Liang, Min Fan, Nan Peng Shen, and Qi Ji in June 1999 and is headquartered in Shanghai, China.

$. CTRP price fluctuates within 5.34% (three month std-dev: 4.28%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20160103

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Dec_3_2015	38.92	51.5	53.77	53.27			53.34(-0.76%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0	17	-10000	1	65	4.65	77%	0.46	56.9	4.28%	0	0.7	60	0
2	Dec_2_2015	38.74	51.25	53.26	53.11			53.75(-1.24%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	16	-10000	1	59	3.64	77%	0.44	61.7	4.28%	0	0.9	61	0
3	Dec_1_2015	38.57	50.99	52.57	52.98			54.43(1.72%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.5	11	-10000	-2	51	7.05	74%	0.44	68.8	4.27%	0	1.2	64	0
4	Nov_30_2015	38.4	50.67	52.01	53.16			53.51(4.2%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.1	11	-10000	-4	54	27.72	71%	0.47	78	4.31%	0	1	63	0
5	Nov_27_2015	38.22	50.32	51.54	53.62			51.35(-2.18%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.8	9	-10000	-6	54	4.96	73%	0.5	99.5	4.3%	0	0.4	50	0

6	Nov_25_2015	38.03	49.98	51.4	54.34			52.5(-1.2%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.6	25	-10000	9	73	5.84	75%	0.45	105.7	4.37%	0	0.8	58	0
7	Nov_24_2015	37.86	49.58	51.11	53.35			53.14(-3.92%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	25	-10000	12	63	8.41	72%	0.45	106.1	4.4%	0	1.1	62	0
8	Nov_23_2015	37.69	49.14	50.7	51.98			55.3(-0.96%)	UD	OpenLong	75	1	20	-10000	12	44	6.95	72%	0.48	107	4.41%	0	1.9	66	0
9	Nov_20_2015	37.51	48.63	50.02	50.66			55.84(1.66%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.4	17	-10000	13	27	10.97	69%	0.54	95.2	4.42%	0	1.9	68	0
10	Nov_19_2015	37.31	47.71	49.52	49.21			54.93(15.55%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.4	11	-10000	9	16	24.22	69%	0.54	79.6	4.48%	0	1.7	70	0

11	Nov_18_2015	37.11	46.79	48.91	48.19			47.54(2.7%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.1	-1	-10000	-4	10	6.8	61%	0.3	70.6	4.09%	0	0.2	65	0
12	Nov_17_2015	37	46.27	49	48.6			46.29(-4.95%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.5	3	-10000	-6	28	8.44	61%	0.3	69.8	4.14%	0	0	61	0
13	Nov_16_2015	36.89	45.84	49.27	49.16			48.7(0.14%)	UT	OpenLong	75	-0.1	13	-10000	-0	53	6.16	64%	0.33	71.1	4.08%	0	0.5	69	0
14	Nov_13_2015	36.77	45.24	49.24	49.21			48.63(-2.34%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.1	11	-10000	-6	61	4.7	64%	0.33	70.5	4.09%	0	0.6	63	0
15	Nov_12_2015	36.65	44.61	49.06	49.83			49.79(0.42%)	UT	HoldLong	65	-0	27	-10000	1	106	3.8	64%	0.38	73.5	4.08%	0	0.9	83	0

16	Nov_11_2015	36.51	43.89	48.51	49.76			49.58(0.95%)	UT	HoldLong	65	-0	36	-10000	3	133	3.97	60%	0.33	72.6	4.1%	0	0.9	84	0
17	Nov_10_2015	36.39	43.13	48	49.49			49.12(0.32%)	UT	HoldLong	65	-0.1	39	-10000	1	154	5.06	60%	0.36	70.2	4.21%	0	1	84	0
18	Nov_9_2015	36.26	42.4	47.54	49.38			48.96(-5.29%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	47	-10000	1	183	8.56	60%	0.36	69.6	4.22%	0	1.1	81	0
19	Nov_6_2015	36.13	41.64	47.19	49.23			51.7(4.56%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.4	64	-10000	10	226	6.97	63%	0.39	69	4.17%	0	1.6	89	0
20	Nov_5_2015	35.99	40.72	45.78	48.18			49.44(2.52%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.2	64	-10000	11	222	5.52	61%	0.33	68.3	4.16%	0	1.5	88	0

21	Nov_4_2015	35.87	39.93	44.5	47.09			48.23(-0.74%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	59	-10000	8	212	7.16	64%	0.31	69.1	4.15%	0	1.5	88	0
22	Nov_3_2015	35.76	39.25	43.32	46.28			48.59(0.84%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.4	58	-10000	9	205	9.09	64%	0.28	72.1	4.31%	0	1.8	90	0
23	Nov_2_2015	35.66	38.5	42.12	45.43			48.18(3.65%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.6	56	-10000	6	204	9.99	64%	0.28	76.8	4.31%	0	2	90	0
24	Oct_30_2015	35.56	37.78	40.89	44.87			46.49(5.76%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.4	69	-10000	20	217	12.65	64%	0.23	86.6	4.3%	0	2	89	0
25	Oct_29_2015	35.48	37.1	39.77	43.01			43.96(-0.57%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	61	-10000	18	191	7.06	64%		80.4	4.24%	0	1.7	88	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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