Trading Signals: COST Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Tue. Nov. 4, 2014

Trading Signals: COST Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Fri. Mar. 14, 2014 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Costco Wholesale)
COST latest price $120.9198 (1.7%) ($118.6529 - $121.0704) on Tue. Nov. 4, 2014.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   0.95% (three month average)
RSI   89
Latest Price   $120.9198(1.7%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   COST advances 0.8% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   COST advances 3% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support COST advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
XLP(60%)    SPY(59%)    QQQ(58%)    XLK(55%)    XLY(54%)
Factors Impacting COST price   COST will decline at least -0.475% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-18%)    TLT(-10%)    IGOV(-6%)    UUP(-5%)    GDXJ(-4%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.475% (StdDev 0.95%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 1.4%

5 Day Moving Average   $118.51(2.03%)
10 Day Moving Average   $117.23(3.15%)
20 Day Moving Average   $114.94(5.2%)
To recent high   0%
To recent low   15.9%
Market Cap   $53.389b

Costco Wholesale Corp. engages in the operation of membership warehouses. Its product categories include food and sundries, hardlines, fresh foods, softlines, and ancillary. It operates through the following segments: Unites States Operations, Canadian Operations, and Other International Operations. The company was founded by James D. Sinegal and Jeffrey H. Brotman in 1983 and is headquartered in Issaquah, WA.

$. COST price fluctuates within 2.64% (three month std-dev: 0.95%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 20 Average positive next day return: 0.54%(40%) Average negative next day return: -1.05%(60%) Sample size 20 Average positive next three day return: 1.19%(50%) Average negative next three day return: -1.25%(50%) Sample size 20 Average positive next weekly return: 1.37%(55%) Average negative next weekly return: -0.91%(45%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20141204

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Nov_4_2014	108.31	114.94	117.23	118.51	118.54	119.28	120.92(1.7%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.8	118	40	84	220	2.8	76%	0.18	61.4	0.95%	0	2	89	0
2	Nov_3_2014	108.12	114.42	116.64	117.53	117.67	118.53	118.9(0.67%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	107	50	72	211	1.95	74%	0.17	58.6	0.93%	0	1.6	75	0
3	Oct_31_2014	107.94	114.05	116.12	116.94	117	117.8	118.1(0.28%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	119	50	88	210	2.37	74%	0.15	58.6	0.93%	0	1.6	69	0
4	Oct_30_2014	107.78	113.76	115.38	116.42	116.21	116.81	117.78(0.81%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	87	30	60	167	1.3	74%	0.14	59.2	0.93%	0	1.7	60	0
5	Oct_29_2014	107.63	113.43	114.53	115.99	115.6	116.21	116.83(0.66%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	63	30	42	125	1.71	76%	0.13	57.4	0.93%	0	1.5	59	0

6	Oct_28_2014	107.49	113.1	113.86	115.75	115.45	115.6	116.06(0.11%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.1	51	0	36	95	1.44	76%	0.11	52.3	0.95%	0	1.4	56	0
7	Oct_27_2014	107.37	112.84	113.43	115.61	115.41	114.98	115.93(0.37%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.2	17	-30	-4	81	1.63	76%	0.11	52.7	0.95%	0	1.5	65	0
8	Oct_24_2014	107.25	112.59	113.06	115.17	115.26	115.29	115.51(-0.11%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	27	0	10	78	2.49	76%	0.1	48.6	0.95%	0	1.5	60	0
9	Oct_23_2014	107.14	112.36	112.88	114.14	114.64	115.83	115.64(0.04%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	99	90	102	91	1.76	76%	0.13	34.7	0.95%	0	1.7	58	0
10	Oct_22_2014	107	112.13	112.64	112.79	113.19	115.24	115.6(0.2%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.6	151	140	171	89	1.88	76%	0.12	14.2	0.95%	0	2	61	0

11	Oct_21_2014	106.87	111.97	112.43	111.68	111.45	113.44	115.37(1.45%)	UT	OpenLong	75	2.4	144	120	168	71	2.11	76%	0.13	0	0.95%	0	2.2	63	0
12	Oct_20_2014	106.73	111.74	111.97	110.97	110.36	111.15	113.72(3.02%)	UT	OpenLong	75	2	75	30	94	19	3.51	75%	0.1	-17.2	0.94%	0	1.5	58	0
13	Oct_17_2014	106.62	111.62	111.75	110.71	110.37	109.46	110.38(1.38%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-48	-70	-49	-44	3.2	70%	0.09	-23.3	0.88%	0	-1	49	0
14	Oct_16_2014	106.52	111.71	111.98	111.47	111.15	109.58	108.88(-1.09%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-2.1	-139	-110	-166	-58	3.54	68%	0.08	-3.5	0.87%	0	-2.2	44	0
15	Oct_15_2014	106.44	111.88	112.27	112.43	112.55	111.29	110.07(-1.54%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-2.2	-102	-80	-133	-10	3.78	71%	0.09	22.7	0.86%	0	-1.7	47	0

16	Oct_14_2014	106.34	111.88	112.36	113.22	113.5	112.72	111.8(-0.57%)	N/A	N/A	0	-1.4	-47	-40	-72	30	4	76%	0.05	45.6	0.84%	0	-0.2	45	0
17	Oct_13_2014	106.29	111.97	112.3	113.04	113.83	113.8	112.44(-1.5%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.6	8	20	-6	50	2.45	76%	0.1	41.8	0.84%	0	0.5	55	0
18	Oct_10_2014	106.18	111.92	112.16	112.91	113.27	114.28	114.15(0.38%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.2	56	70	52	69	3.35	82%	0.12	34.8	0.81%	0	2.2	60	0
19	Oct_9_2014	106.05	111.75	111.85	112.59	112.75	113.86	113.71(-0.25%)	UD	OpenLong	75	1.3	115	70	126	82	2.96	82%	0.12	23.8	0.81%	0	2.2	56	0
20	Oct_8_2014	105.92	111.63	111.59	112.12	112.27	112.27	113.99(2.76%)	UT	OpenLong	75	2.4	68	0	77	42	4.27	83%	0.12	14.5	0.81%	0	3.1	57	0

21	Oct_7_2014	105.79	111.51	111.44	111.42	111.65	111.64	110.93(-0.74%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.9	-37	10	-41	-24	2.34	81%	0.08	19.6	0.75%	0	-1	47	0
22	Oct_6_2014	105.71	111.55	111.47	111.43	111.59	112.28	111.76(-0.69%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.6	49	50	61	12	1.91	81%	0.09	52	0.74%	0	0.4	49	0
23	Oct_3_2014	105.61	111.56	111.44	111.27	111.21	111.66	112.54(1.03%)	UT	OpenLong	75	2.2	56	30	71	10	1.77	81%	0.11	79.2	0.74%	0	1.7	56	0
24	Oct_2_2014	105.49	111.55	111.37	111	110.87	110.91	111.39(0.83%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.7	4	-0	12	-19	1.55	80%	0.09	111.5	0.74%	0	-0.3	53	0
25	Oct_1_2014	105.39	111.52	111.42	110.98	110.83	110.77	110.48(-0.45%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-31	-10	-30	-34	1.41	79%		77.4	0.73%	0	-1	44	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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