Trading Signals: COST Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Mon. May. 12, 2014

Trading Signals: COST Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Fri. Mar. 14, 2014 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Costco Wholesale)
COST latest price $102.5479 (0.97%) ($101.7302 - $102.8999) on Mon. May. 12, 2014.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   0.75% (three month average)
RSI   64
Latest Price   $102.5479(0.97%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   COST advances 0.4% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   COST declines -0.2% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support COST advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
XLP(60%)    SPY(59%)    QQQ(58%)    XLK(55%)    XLY(54%)
Factors Impacting COST price   COST will decline at least -0.375% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-10%)    VIXM(-6%)    IGOV(-6%)    UUP(-4%)    GDXJ(-4%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.375% (StdDev 0.75%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 0.6%

5 Day Moving Average   $100.59(1.95%)
10 Day Moving Average   $101.01(1.52%)
20 Day Moving Average   $100.7(1.84%)
To recent high   0%
To recent low   5.3%
Market Cap   $45.277b

Costco Wholesale Corp. engages in the operation of membership warehouses. Its product categories include food and sundries, hardlines, fresh foods, softlines, and ancillary. It operates through the following segments: Unites States Operations, Canadian Operations, and Other International Operations. The company was founded by James D. Sinegal and Jeffrey H. Brotman in 1983 and is headquartered in Issaquah, WA.

$. COST price fluctuates within 1.1% (three month std-dev: 0.75%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 5 Average positive next day return: 1%(80%) Average negative next day return: -0.4%(20%) Sample size 5 Average positive next three day return: 2.24%(60%) Average negative next three day return: -1.38%(40%) Sample size 5 Average positive next weekly return: 1.97%(100%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20140612

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	May_12_2014	99.81	100.7	101.01	100.59	100.66	101.73	102.55(0.97%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.8	80	80	100	21	1.94	59%	0.06	39.1	0.75%	0	1.7	64	0
2	May_9_2014	99.75	100.5	100.9	100.24	100.08	100.72	101.56(0.58%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.2	62	40	80	6	1.95	56%	0.05	36.4	0.75%	0	1	57	0
3	May_8_2014	99.7	100.36	100.86	100.19	100.01	99.58	100.98(2.46%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.7	-13	-40	-10	-23	2.56	56%	0.03	35.7	0.75%	0	0.5	57	0
4	May_7_2014	99.67	100.29	100.88	100.34	100.39	99.44	98.56(-0.75%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.5	-111	-60	-129	-55	2.95	47%	-0.03	44.3	0.65%	0	-1.5	44	0
5	May_6_2014	99.7	100.33	101.16	100.99	101.09	100.44	99.31(-1.45%)	CR	SmallShort	-20	-1.5	-73	-40	-101	10	1.95	50%	-0.01	65.8	0.64%	0	-0.9	60	0

6	May_5_2014	99.71	100.26	101.26	101.44	101.46	101.33	100.77(-0.57%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.5	-21	-10	-50	68	1.4	58%	0.03	66.4	0.6%	0	0.4	66	0
7	May_2_2014	99.68	100.1	101.24	101.64	101.65	101.73	101.35(-0.35%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.2	41	10	13	123	1.32	58%	0.05	62.3	0.6%	0	0.9	74	0
8	May_1_2014	99.63	99.95	101.1	101.61	101.64	101.59	101.71(-0.1%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	43	-0	13	134	1.17	58%	0.07	61.2	0.61%	0	1.3	78	0
9	Apr_30_2014	99.56	99.77	100.92	101.52	101.49	101.56	101.82(0.24%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	32	0	-0	128	1.63	58%	0.07	58.4	0.62%	0	1.5	67	0
10	Apr_29_2014	99.49	99.6	100.62	101.36	101.39	101.69	101.57(-0.16%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	69	20	47	134	1.58	58%	0.06	51.5	0.63%	0	1.5	68	0

11	Apr_28_2014	99.43	99.43	100.37	101.04	101.09	101.41	101.74(0.5%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.6	72	20	52	133	3.02	58%	0.08	42.4	0.64%	0	1.9	77	0
12	Apr_25_2014	99.35	99.25	100.06	100.78	100.7	101.08	101.23(-0.02%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.4	65	20	43	130	1.72	58%	0.07	32.2	0.64%	0	1.7	76	0
13	Apr_24_2014	99.28	99.11	99.8	100.51	100.47	100.78	101.25(0.21%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	73	20	56	125	1.94	58%	0.07	24.8	0.65%	0	2.1	67	0
14	Apr_23_2014	99.21	98.99	99.61	100.24	100.18	100.33	101.03(1.08%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	57	10	38	114	2	58%	0.06	18.5	0.67%	0	2.2	66	0
15	Apr_22_2014	99.15	98.93	99.41	99.76	99.94	100.16	99.95(-0.47%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	47	20	30	96	2.32	53%	0.03	4.7	0.65%	0	1.2	60	0

16	Apr_21_2014	99.12	98.91	99.18	99.58	99.6	100.04	100.43(0.53%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1	60	30	50	90	1.83	53%	0.06	-2.4	0.65%	0	1.8	64	0
17	Apr_17_2014	99.06	98.88	98.87	99.23	99.29	99.72	99.9(0.01%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	67	30	66	71	1.66	53%	0.03	-12.3	0.66%	0	1.3	62	0
18	Apr_16_2014	99.03	98.86	98.71	98.98	98.94	99.16	99.89(1.28%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.2	27	10	23	40	2.46	53%	0.04	0	0.67%	0	1.3	58	0
19	Apr_15_2014	98.99	98.82	98.53	98.9	98.96	98.87	98.63(-0.44%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.3	8	-0	3	22	2.13	44%	-0.02	0	0.63%	0	-0.2	46	0
20	Apr_14_2014	99.01	98.9	98.51	99.01	99.07	98.72	99.07(0.43%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.1	-3	-20	-7	8	2.52	44%	0.01	0	0.64%	0	0.2	39	0

21	Apr_11_2014	99	98.93	98.43	98.69	98.89	99.05	98.65(0%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	-0	-11	20	-8	-21	3.1	44%	-0.02	0	0.64%	0	-0.3	41	0
22	Apr_10_2014	99.02	98.99	98.39	98.44	98.63	99.41	98.65(-0.86%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.2	50	60	72	-18	3.31	44%	-0.02	0	0.66%	0	-0.4	38	0
23	Apr_9_2014	99.04	98.99	98.38	98.38	98.23	98.73	99.5(0.35%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.3	74	30	87	35	2.9	50%	0.02	0	0.65%	0	113.1	48	0
24	Apr_8_2014	99.02	98.99	98.31	98.11	98.23	97.85	99.16(1.69%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.2	12	-10	14	6	3.86	50%	0.01	0	0.66%	0	110.2	48	0
25	Apr_7_2014	99.01	98.99	98.39	97.97	98	97.72	97.51(0.13%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-55	-20	-64	-26	3.12	32%		0	0.52%	0	106	29	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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