Trading Signals: CMI Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Fri. Jun. 20, 2014

Trading Signals: CMI Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Wed. Sep. 27, 2023)

(Cummins Inc.)
CMI latest price $158.5500 (0.99%) ($157.0300 - $158.8200) on Fri. Jun. 20, 2014.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   1.18% (three month average)
RSI   66
Latest Price   $158.5500(0.99%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   CMI advances 0.3% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   CMI advances 0.5% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support CMI advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
XLI(70%)    XLB(65%)    XLF(64%)    IWM(63%)    SPY(63%)
Factors Impacting CMI price   CMI will decline at least -0.59% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-26%)    TLT(-25%)    UUP(-8%)    SHY(-8%)    IGOV(-6%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.59% (StdDev 1.18%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 0.6%

5 Day Moving Average   $156.99(0.99%)
10 Day Moving Average   $157.46(0.69%)
20 Day Moving Average   $155.67(1.85%)
To recent high   -1.2%
To recent low   11.8%
Market Cap   $23.402b

Cummins, Inc. engages in the design, manufacture, sale and service of diesel and natural gas engines and powertrain-related technologies, including fuel systems, controls, air handing, filtration, emission, solutions and electrical power generation systems. It operates through the following segments: Engine, Distribution, Components and Power Generation. The Engine segment manufactures and markets a range of diesel and natural gas powered engines under the Cummins brand name, for the heavy- and medium-duty truck, bus, recreational vehicle, light-duty automotive, agricultural, construction, mining, marine, oil and gas, rail and governmental equipment markets. The Distribution segment consists of parts, engines, power generation and service, which service and distributes range of its products and services. The Components segment supplies products which complement its Engine and Power Systems segment, including after treatment systems, turbochargers, filtration products and fuel systems for commercial diesel applications. The Power Generation segment designs and manufactures most of the components that make up power generation systems, including controls, alternators, transfer switches and switchgear. The company was founded by Clessie Lyle Cummins and William Glanton Irwin on February 3, 1919 and is headquartered in Columbus, IN.

$. CMI price fluctuates within 1.84% (three month std-dev: 1.18%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 17 Average positive next day return: 0.8%(76%) Average negative next day return: -0.99%(24%) Sample size 17 Average positive next three day return: 1.63%(65%) Average negative next three day return: -0.77%(35%) Sample size 17 Average positive next weekly return: 1.49%(59%) Average negative next weekly return: -1.1%(41%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20140720

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Jun_20_2014	146.66	155.67	157.46	156.99	156.75	157.21	158.55(0.99%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	52	20	53	47	1.23	55%	0.2	67.9	1.18%	0	1	66	0
2	Jun_19_2014	146.36	155.19	157.48	156.49	156.3	156.36	157(0.12%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	19	-0	12	39	1.69	55%	0.2	55.9	1.18%	0	0.6	64	0
3	Jun_18_2014	146.07	154.81	157.42	156.04	156.3	156.3	156.81(0.56%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.2	8	10	-2	38	0.73	55%	0.2	45.7	1.18%	0	0.6	65	0
4	Jun_17_2014	145.78	154.37	157.17	156.38	156.11	156.25	155.94(-0.47%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.1	2	0	-13	45	0.72	59%	0.21	37.8	1.18%	0	0.4	64	0
5	Jun_16_2014	145.47	154.09	156.98	157.3	156.78	155.93	156.67(0.41%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.2	-10	-50	-33	58	0.77	59%	0.21	40.6	1.21%	0	0.7	67	0

6	Jun_13_2014	145.16	153.74	156.68	158.02	157.76	155.96	156.03(0.81%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.5	-61	-80	-99	55	1.13	56%	0.17	45.6	1.22%	0	0.6	71	0
7	Jun_12_2014	144.92	153.43	156.41	158.62	158.73	157.64	154.77(-2.35%)	CR	SmallShort	-20	-1	-46	-50	-90	85	1.41	56%	0.14	48.2	1.23%	0	0.3	72	0
8	Jun_11_2014	144.72	153.28	156.24	158.92	159.07	159.57	158.49(-1.28%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	57	20	24	154	0.88	60%	0.16	53.4	1.19%	0	1.4	84	0
9	Jun_10_2014	144.49	152.99	155.62	157.98	158.09	159.83	160.55(0.19%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.7	128	80	108	187	0.82	63%	0.12	55.6	1.19%	0	2.1	96	0
10	Jun_9_2014	144.32	152.58	154.75	156.57	156.48	158.58	160.25(0.75%)	UT	HoldLong	65	1.2	158	90	149	186	0.98	63%	0.16	56.5	1.2%	0	2.4	78	0

11	Jun_6_2014	144.09	152.03	153.71	155.18	154.82	156.36	159.06(1.8%)	UT	HoldLong	65	1.4	132	60	124	154	1.15	63%	0.15	51.1	1.2%	0	2.6	77	0
12	Jun_5_2014	143.87	151.6	152.63	153.96	153.67	154.38	156.25(1.61%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.1	81	30	71	111	1.04	60%	0.13	48.6	1.18%	0	2.2	74	0
13	Jun_4_2014	143.68	151.25	151.9	153.21	153.03	153.28	153.78(0.16%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	36	10	24	72	0.74	61%	0.12	41.1	1.17%	0	1.4	56	0
14	Jun_3_2014	143.51	150.98	151.29	152.9	152.73	152.97	153.53(0.16%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	20	10	12	44	0.84	57%	0.13	30.9	1.19%	0	1.4	48	0
15	Jun_2_2014	143.33	150.81	150.93	152.61	152.7	152.79	153.29(0.24%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	28	10	26	34	0.57	57%	0.1	41.9	1.22%	0	1.4	47	0

16	May_30_2014	143.18	150.67	150.55	151.96	152.43	152.5	152.93(0.27%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	24	10	25	21	0.84	57%	0.1	43.2	1.22%	0	1.4	58	0
17	May_29_2014	143.03	150.58	150.2	151.07	151.6	152.62	152.52(0.19%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	33	60	41	7	0.51	57%	0.1	36.8	1.23%	0	1.2	53	0
18	May_28_2014	142.89	150.48	150.08	150.37	150.68	152.36	152.23(0.1%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.2	90	80	110	28	0.74	57%	0.08	36.3	1.24%	0	1.1	57	0
19	May_27_2014	142.77	150.4	150.14	149.43	149.54	150.57	152.08(1.35%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.8	69	50	87	16	1.19	57%	0.13	32.3	1.24%	0	1.1	59	0
20	May_23_2014	142.59	150.08	150.21	149.04	148.73	149	150.05(1.05%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.5	11	10	18	-10	0.66	58%	0.08	16.8	1.24%	0	-0	50	0

21	May_22_2014	142.48	149.95	150.2	148.97	148.87	148.5	148.49(-0.34%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-9	-20	-4	-23	0.79	58%	0.05	18.3	1.24%	0	-0.8	44	0
22	May_21_2014	142.41	149.99	150.48	149.2	149.02	148.45	148.99(0.98%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-46	-30	-49	-38	0.73	58%	0.06	30	1.25%	0	-0.5	44	0
23	May_20_2014	142.33	149.93	150.57	149.74	149.51	149.23	147.55(-1.7%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.1	-47	-20	-51	-33	1.08	58%	0.06	48.9	1.25%	0	-1.2	42	0
24	May_19_2014	142.25	149.92	150.71	150.92	150.52	149.58	150.1(0.25%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-32	-50	-38	-14	0.71	57%	0.07	70.9	1.24%	0	0.1	48	0
25	May_16_2014	142.15	149.76	150.74	151.56	151.47	149.78	149.72(0.05%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.9	-63	-80	-82	-6	0.85	57%		88.9	1.26%	0	-0	64	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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