Trading Signals: CMI Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Fri. May. 31, 2013

Trading Signals: CMI Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Wed. Sep. 27, 2023)

(Cummins Inc.)
CMI latest price $119.6300 (1.65%) ($116.8000 - $122.3200) on Fri. May. 31, 2013.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   1.78% (three month average)
RSI   69
Latest Price   $119.6300(1.65%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   CMI advances 0.5% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   CMI advances 1.4% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support CMI advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
IWM(63%)    SPY(63%)    XAR(58%)    EWG(57%)    PEJ(57%)
Factors Impacting CMI price   CMI will decline at least -0.89% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-24%)    SHY(-8%)    IGOV(-6%)    TIP(-5%)    GLD(-2%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.89% (StdDev 1.78%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 2%

5 Day Moving Average   $117.72(1.62%)
10 Day Moving Average   $117.67(1.67%)
20 Day Moving Average   $115.72(3.38%)
To recent high   0%
To recent low   15.4%
Market Cap   $17.657b

Cummins, Inc. engages in the design, manufacture, sale and service of diesel and natural gas engines and powertrain-related technologies, including fuel systems, controls, air handing, filtration, emission, solutions and electrical power generation systems. It operates through the following segments: Engine, Distribution, Components and Power Generation. The Engine segment manufactures and markets a range of diesel and natural gas powered engines under the Cummins brand name, for the heavy- and medium-duty truck, bus, recreational vehicle, light-duty automotive, agricultural, construction, mining, marine, oil and gas, rail and governmental equipment markets. The Distribution segment consists of parts, engines, power generation and service, which service and distributes range of its products and services. The Components segment supplies products which complement its Engine and Power Systems segment, including after treatment systems, turbochargers, filtration products and fuel systems for commercial diesel applications. The Power Generation segment designs and manufactures most of the components that make up power generation systems, including controls, alternators, transfer switches and switchgear. The company was founded by Clessie Lyle Cummins and William Glanton Irwin on February 3, 1919 and is headquartered in Columbus, IN.

$. CMI price fluctuates within 2.09% (three month std-dev: 1.78%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 20 Average positive next day return: 0.76%(60%) Average negative next day return: -0.55%(40%) Sample size 20 Average positive next three day return: 1.61%(60%) Average negative next three day return: -1.87%(40%) Sample size 20 Average positive next weekly return: 2.34%(55%) Average negative next weekly return: -3.06%(45%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20130701

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	May_31_2013	114.63	115.72	117.67	117.72	117.9	118.44	119.63(1.65%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	52	40	47	66	2.96	52%	0.06	98.1	1.78%	0	1.6	69	0
2	May_30_2013	114.56	115.09	117.15	117.19	117.16	117.38	117.69(-0.03%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	16	10	7	43	1.78	52%	0.04	66.3	1.78%	0	0.9	65	0
3	May_29_2013	114.51	114.43	116.86	117.15	116.81	117.37	117.72(0.38%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	14	20	5	41	1.28	52%	0.06	44.5	1.8%	0	0.9	61	0
4	May_28_2013	114.44	113.88	116.58	117.37	117.12	116.93	117.27(0.83%)	UT	OpenLong	75	-0	24	-20	14	54	1.28	52%	0.04	42.4	1.8%	0	0.8	67	0
5	May_24_2013	114.39	113.66	116.21	117.55	117.31	116.26	116.31(-0.54%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.3	-15	-70	-35	46	1.67	54%	0.02	52.5	1.8%	0	0.7	70	0

6	May_23_2013	114.37	113.4	116.04	117.57	117.63	117.32	116.94(-0.48%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.2	0	-20	-21	63	1.64	54%	0.03	58.8	1.81%	0	0.9	74	0
7	May_22_2013	114.33	113.15	115.77	117.05	117.44	118.36	117.5(-1.12%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	48	60	31	97	1.87	54%	0.03	63.8	1.82%	0	1.1	83	0
8	May_21_2013	114.3	112.77	115.51	116.48	116.56	117.95	118.83(0.58%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.6	82	90	64	134	1.66	52%	0.1	62.5	1.82%	0	1.6	90	0
9	May_20_2013	114.19	112.19	114.91	115.68	115.48	116.53	118.15(1.48%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.7	79	60	59	138	1.72	49%	0.11	55.1	1.84%	0	1.6	76	0
10	May_17_2013	114.06	111.65	114.17	114.73	114.68	115.17	116.43(1.84%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	51	30	32	107	1.05	49%	0.09	47.3	1.86%	0	1.4	54	0

11	May_16_2013	113.96	111.18	113.6	114.32	114.19	114.43	114.33(-0.31%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0	29	10	8	92	1.32	49%	0.06	31.4	1.86%	0	0.9	56	0
12	May_15_2013	113.89	110.77	112.87	114.3	114.09	114.19	114.68(-0.1%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	23	0	5	76	1.51	49%	0.01	15.8	1.88%	0	1.1	54	0
13	May_14_2013	113.88	110.43	111.83	114.37	114.14	113.96	114.8(1.23%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.1	18	-20	3	62	1.54	49%	0.07	3.7	1.88%	0	1.3	58	0
14	May_13_2013	113.8	110.22	111	114	114.08	114	113.4(-0.86%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.2	16	-0	3	55	1.51	49%	0.05	-4.9	1.87%	0	1	60	0
15	May_10_2013	113.74	110.02	110.93	113.49	113.66	114.31	114.38(0.12%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	37	40	25	72	1.85	49%	0.05	-12.5	1.84%	0	1.3	61	0

16	May_9_2013	113.68	110.1	110.57	112.74	112.85	114.16	114.24(-0.67%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.4	71	80	65	88	1.84	49%	0.06	-12.4	1.85%	0	1.1	62	0
17	May_8_2013	113.61	110.23	110.3	111.17	111.67	113.01	115.01(1.8%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1	95	100	96	91	1.78	49%	0.06	-18.2	1.87%	0	1.2	65	0
18	May_7_2013	113.54	110.31	109.75	108.9	109.51	111.53	112.98(1.92%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1	70	150	76	52	1.52	49%	0.06	-27.9	1.85%	0	0.7	58	0
19	May_6_2013	113.47	110.37	109.18	107.58	107.65	110.33	110.85(0.23%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	68	180	83	23	1.98	50%	0.04	-33.7	1.84%	0	0.1	49	0
20	May_3_2013	113.42	110.46	108.86	108.06	106.99	107.5	110.6(3.94%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	45	0	55	15	2.75	50%	0.04	-30.5	1.84%	0	0	51	0

21	May_2_2013	113.37	110.56	108.5	108.18	107.74	104.97	106.41(2.65%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-77	-190	-81	-66	2.36	46%	0.01	-32.5	1.79%	0	-1	35	0
22	May_1_2013	113.36	110.95	108.51	109.33	109.33	106.49	103.66(-2.57%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.4	-146	-180	-157	-111	4.18	44%	-0.02	-25.8	1.77%	0	-1.8	29	0
23	Apr_30_2013	113.38	111.43	109.01	110.62	111.14	110.51	106.39(-6.06%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.2	-60	-30	-54	-78	5.95	46%	0.03	-19.6	1.74%	0	-1.4	32	0
24	Apr_29_2013	113.35	111.73	109.51	110.84	111.36	112.16	113.25(1.84%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.7	23	60	48	-52	1.81	52%	0.11	-19.7	1.56%	0	0.4	46	0
25	Apr_26_2013	113.23	111.69	109.11	109.72	110.22	111.76	111.2(-0.86%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.4	33	110	70	-77	1.27	50%		-29.6	1.53%	0	-0.1	48	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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