Trading Signals: CMI Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Thu. Feb. 7, 2013

Trading Signals: CMI Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Wed. Sep. 27, 2023)

(Cummins Inc.)
CMI latest price $118.9600 (-1.18%) ($117.4100 - $120.4800) on Thu. Feb. 7, 2013.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   1.4% (three month average)
RSI   69
Latest Price   $118.9600(-1.18%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   CMI advances 0.7% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   CMI advances 1.2% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support CMI advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
IWM(63%)    SPY(63%)    XAR(58%)    EWG(57%)    PEJ(57%)
Factors Impacting CMI price   CMI will decline at least -0.7% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-25%)    SHY(-8%)    IGOV(-6%)    TIP(-5%)    GLD(-0%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.7% (StdDev 1.4%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend -0.7%

5 Day Moving Average   $117.9(0.9%)
10 Day Moving Average   $116.94(1.73%)
20 Day Moving Average   $115.31(3.17%)
To recent high   -1.2%
To recent low   26.1%
Market Cap   $17.558b

Cummins, Inc. engages in the design, manufacture, sale and service of diesel and natural gas engines and powertrain-related technologies, including fuel systems, controls, air handing, filtration, emission, solutions and electrical power generation systems. It operates through the following segments: Engine, Distribution, Components and Power Generation. The Engine segment manufactures and markets a range of diesel and natural gas powered engines under the Cummins brand name, for the heavy- and medium-duty truck, bus, recreational vehicle, light-duty automotive, agricultural, construction, mining, marine, oil and gas, rail and governmental equipment markets. The Distribution segment consists of parts, engines, power generation and service, which service and distributes range of its products and services. The Components segment supplies products which complement its Engine and Power Systems segment, including after treatment systems, turbochargers, filtration products and fuel systems for commercial diesel applications. The Power Generation segment designs and manufactures most of the components that make up power generation systems, including controls, alternators, transfer switches and switchgear. The company was founded by Clessie Lyle Cummins and William Glanton Irwin on February 3, 1919 and is headquartered in Columbus, IN.

$. CMI price fluctuates within 2.11% (three month std-dev: 1.4%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 13 Average positive next day return: 0.75%(54%) Average negative next day return: -1.33%(46%) Sample size 13 Average positive next three day return: 0.87%(38%) Average negative next three day return: -1.66%(62%) Sample size 13 Average positive next weekly return: 1.98%(38%) Average negative next weekly return: -1.27%(62%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20130307

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Feb_7_2013	102.39	115.31	116.94	117.9	118.25	119.87	118.96(-1.18%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.4	67	100	64	77	1.94	78%	0.21	53.6	1.4%	0	1.5	69	0
2	Feb_6_2013	102.18	115.01	116.58	117.07	117.37	118.89	120.38(2.55%)	UT	HoldLong	65	1.4	110	100	116	90	4.06	78%	0.23	46.3	1.48%	0	2.3	80	0
3	Feb_5_2013	101.95	114.54	116.04	116.1	115.95	116.63	117.39(0.83%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.6	42	40	38	53	1.85	77%	0.18	45.3	1.45%	0	1.4	76	0
4	Feb_4_2013	101.77	114.29	115.86	115.83	115.57	115.85	116.42(0.07%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	31	10	22	56	1.91	77%	0.14	59.2	1.45%	0	1.1	75	0
5	Feb_1_2013	101.63	114.15	115.77	115.73	115.51	115.27	116.34(1.31%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.3	10	-20	-7	59	1.61	80%	0.17	76.9	1.46%	0	1.1	78	0

6	Jan_31_2013	101.46	114.02	115.57	115.86	115.72	115.3	114.83(-0.6%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.6	-2	-30	-22	57	1.41	80%	0.18	100.6	1.6%	0	0.4	61	0
7	Jan_30_2013	101.28	113.95	115.33	115.98	116.07	115.75	115.52(-0.46%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.2	10	-20	-8	64	1.58	80%	0.18	119.1	1.59%	0	0.8	60	0
8	Jan_29_2013	101.1	113.61	114.99	115.93	115.84	116.15	116.05(0.12%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.1	14	20	-4	68	1.5	80%	0.19	120.2	1.6%	0	1.3	69	0
9	Jan_28_2013	100.91	113.12	114.56	115.87	115.7	116.38	115.91(-0.91%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0	44	40	32	79	1.26	80%	0.17	101.1	1.62%	0	1.3	61	0
10	Jan_25_2013	100.74	112.68	114.05	115.81	115.4	115.53	116.98(1.32%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	39	-0	29	69	1.25	81%	0.19	79.8	1.61%	0	1.6	58	0

11	Jan_24_2013	100.55	112.2	113.58	115.25	115.01	115.02	115.46(0.16%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.1	16	-10	6	45	2.41	81%	0.21	68.4	1.62%	0	1.2	53	0
12	Jan_23_2013	100.34	111.79	113.32	114.57	114.63	115.28	115.27(-0.41%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	35	40	32	43	1.12	81%	0.21	61.4	1.63%	0	1.2	55	0
13	Jan_22_2013	100.13	111.42	112.91	113.88	113.75	115.01	115.75(0.14%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	57	70	59	50	0.96	81%	0.2	59	1.63%	0	1.5	70	0
14	Jan_18_2013	99.93	111.02	112.55	113.04	112.76	113.98	115.59(1.22%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	71	70	74	61	1.88	81%	0.21	54.7	1.64%	0	1.6	74	0
15	Jan_17_2013	99.72	110.62	112.33	112.04	111.81	112.48	114.2(1.91%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	47	40	45	52	1.47	81%	0.17	50.8	1.64%	0	1.3	69	0

16	Jan_16_2013	99.55	110.34	112.29	111.69	111.13	111.55	112.06(0.21%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.1	17	10	5	52	1	82%	0.16	54.5	1.63%	0	0.6	65	0
17	Jan_15_2013	99.39	110.03	112.41	111.9	111.44	111.14	111.82(0.24%)	UT	OpenLong	75	-0	27	-30	10	77	0.87	82%	0.14	62	1.65%	0	0.7	64	0
18	Jan_14_2013	99.25	109.76	112.11	111.77	111.66	110.72	111.55(0.87%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.1	-12	-60	-36	59	1.39	82%	0.12	66.1	1.66%	0	0.6	60	0
19	Jan_11_2013	99.13	109.47	111.61	111.97	111.83	111.74	110.59(-1.65%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.5	-18	-10	-43	56	1.87	82%	0.11	75.2	1.66%	0	0.4	59	0
20	Jan_10_2013	99.02	109.25	111.29	112.62	112.38	112.61	112.44(-0.6%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	31	10	12	89	1.97	75%	0.11	86.5	1.66%	0	1.1	64	0

21	Jan_9_2013	98.91	108.9	110.78	112.97	112.7	111.91	113.12(1.76%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.1	10	-60	-14	80	1.88	75%	0.11	104	1.72%	0	1.4	63	0
22	Jan_8_2013	98.8	108.41	110.19	113.02	113.07	112.14	111.16(-1.22%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.6	-9	-60	-37	77	1.4	74%	0.09	118.3	1.73%	0	0.9	67	0
23	Jan_7_2013	98.71	107.95	109.89	112.46	113.31	113.49	112.53(-1.17%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0	44	30	25	100	1.65	74%	0.1	113.8	1.72%	0	1.5	69	0
24	Jan_4_2013	98.61	107.36	109.4	111.11	111.84	114	113.86(-0.27%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.9	83	150	76	104	1.74	74%	0.12	98.7	1.71%	0	2	75	0
25	Jan_3_2013	98.49	106.72	108.76	109.7	109.79	113.13	114.17(0.71%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.4	139	220	147	115	2.16	74%		88.3	1.71%	0	2.3	74	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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