Trading Signals: CMI Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Mon. Sep. 13, 2010

Trading Signals: CMI Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Wed. Sep. 27, 2023)

(Cummins Inc.)
CMI latest price $84.8100 (3.53%) ($83.3400 - $84.9300) on Mon. Sep. 13, 2010.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   2.57% (three month average)
RSI   64
Latest Price   $84.8100(3.53%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   CMI advances 0.4% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   CMI advances 4.9% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support CMI advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
IWM(67%)    SPY(66%)    EWG(61%)    PEJ(60%)    EEM(58%)
Factors Impacting CMI price   CMI will decline at least -1.285% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-32%)    TIP(-10%)    SHY(-9%)    GLD(2%)    IGOV(3%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -1.285% (StdDev 2.57%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 0.6%

5 Day Moving Average   $82.2(3.18%)
10 Day Moving Average   $80.58(5.25%)
20 Day Moving Average   $79.01(7.34%)
To recent high   0%
To recent low   33.4%
Market Cap   $12.518b

Cummins, Inc. engages in the design, manufacture, sale and service of diesel and natural gas engines and powertrain-related technologies, including fuel systems, controls, air handing, filtration, emission, solutions and electrical power generation systems. It operates through the following segments: Engine, Distribution, Components and Power Generation. The Engine segment manufactures and markets a range of diesel and natural gas powered engines under the Cummins brand name, for the heavy- and medium-duty truck, bus, recreational vehicle, light-duty automotive, agricultural, construction, mining, marine, oil and gas, rail and governmental equipment markets. The Distribution segment consists of parts, engines, power generation and service, which service and distributes range of its products and services. The Components segment supplies products which complement its Engine and Power Systems segment, including after treatment systems, turbochargers, filtration products and fuel systems for commercial diesel applications. The Power Generation segment designs and manufactures most of the components that make up power generation systems, including controls, alternators, transfer switches and switchgear. The company was founded by Clessie Lyle Cummins and William Glanton Irwin on February 3, 1919 and is headquartered in Columbus, IN.

$. CMI price fluctuates within 4.52% (three month std-dev: 2.57%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 3 Average positive next day return: 5.79%(33%) Average negative next day return: -1.74%(67%) Sample size 3 Average positive next three day return: 6.84%(33%) Average negative next three day return: -3.14%(67%) Sample size 3 Average positive next weekly return: 18.08%(33%) Average negative next weekly return: -7.07%(67%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20101013

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Sep_13_2010	73.48	79.01	80.58	82.2	82.5	83.15	84.81(3.53%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	55	70	31	127	2.5	60%	0.2	24.8	2.57%	0	1.6	64	NAN
2	Sep_10_2010	73.33	78.63	79.71	81.87	81.84	82.12	81.92(0.59%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0	28	20	2	104	1.73	61%	0.19	19.5	2.55%	0	1	53	NAN
3	Sep_9_2010	73.19	78.42	78.81	81.85	82.16	81.85	81.44(-0.63%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	31	-20	13	83	1.51	61%	0.21	14.8	2.68%	0	0.9	49	NAN
4	Sep_8_2010	73.04	78.22	78.03	81.54	81.75	81.57	81.96(1.34%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.1	17	-10	5	54	1.92	63%	0.22	7.2	2.68%	0	1.2	49	NAN
5	Sep_7_2010	72.88	78.16	77.29	80.03	81.09	82.47	80.88(-2.74%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	41	160	45	30	2.24	59%	0.3	-4.3	2.71%	0	0.9	50	NAN

6	Sep_3_2010	72.66	78.14	76.82	78.61	79.12	81.92	83.16(1.66%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.5	60	270	74	17	3.05	57%	0.22	-17.3	2.86%	0	1.6	58	NAN
7	Sep_2_2010	72.5	77.99	76.34	77.22	76.99	79.7	81.8(2.4%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.5	71	240	92	6	3.32	60%	0.19	-28.4	2.85%	0	1.3	57	NAN
8	Sep_1_2010	72.36	77.95	76.17	75.37	75.48	76.32	79.88(7.35%)	N/A	N/A	0	1.5	39	80	60	-26	5.08	58%	0.19	-42	2.91%	0	0.6	53	NAN
9	Aug_31_2010	72.22	78	76.27	74.09	74.22	74.27	74.41(0.8%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.1	-21	10	-6	-65	2.66	54%	0.14	-51.3	2.8%	0	-1.2	43	NAN
10	Aug_30_2010	72.12	78.29	76.87	74.17	74.07	74.65	73.82(-3.11%)	DT	HoldShort	-50	-0.1	-13	50	3	-62	1.96	54%	0.11	-51.3	2.82%	0	-1.5	34	NAN

11	Aug_27_2010	72.04	78.68	77.3	74.7	74.13	74.16	76.19(4.99%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.5	-20	-20	-4	-67	3.18	59%	0.15	-44.7	2.81%	0	-0.9	39	NAN
12	Aug_26_2010	71.93	78.86	77.46	75.37	75.04	73.5	72.57(-1.24%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1	-54	-160	-45	-82	3.19	57%	0.11	-35.1	2.82%	0	-2.3	27	NAN
13	Aug_25_2010	71.85	79.23	78.06	77.1	76.76	74.11	73.48(-1.73%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.6	-81	-250	-81	-81	4.16	57%	0.11	-14.9	2.82%	0	-2.5	27	NAN
14	Aug_24_2010	71.77	79.57	78.55	78.77	78.79	76.59	74.77(-2.26%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-2.1	-73	-190	-76	-64	3.4	57%	0.13	22.5	2.82%	0	-2.6	30	NAN
15	Aug_23_2010	71.68	79.84	79.24	79.93	80.3	79.41	76.5(-3.79%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-2.2	-32	-60	-34	-27	3.33	57%	0.07	67.3	2.82%	0	-2.1	41	NAN

16	Aug_20_2010	71.63	79.93	79.72	80.18	80.7	80.99	79.51(-2.13%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.4	4	40	8	-7	2.83	56%	0.25	95.9	2.8%	0	-0.3	44	NAN
17	Aug_19_2010	71.45	79.83	79.72	79.83	79.88	81.19	81.24(-0.72%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.8	21	120	28	-1	3.44	56%	0.28	100.5	2.93%	0	0.8	56	NAN
18	Aug_18_2010	71.25	79.57	79.87	79.18	78.97	80.42	81.83(1.56%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.2	38	120	49	4	2.48	56%	0.28	79.3	2.94%	0	1	60	NAN
19	Aug_17_2010	71.05	79.16	79.8	78.37	77.91	78.58	80.57(3.6%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.9	11	40	20	-15	2.45	56%	0.25	57.2	2.95%	0	0.6	53	NAN
20	Aug_16_2010	70.87	78.78	79.74	78.56	77.59	77.52	77.77(0.03%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-14	-40	-10	-24	1.51	54%	0.21	48.3	2.92%	0	-0.3	45	NAN

21	Aug_13_2010	70.72	78.47	80.11	79.23	78.45	77.24	77.75(-0.28%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-20	-140	-23	-12	2.06	52%	0.24	47.1	2.95%	0	-0.2	53	NAN
22	Aug_12_2010	70.55	78.11	80.33	79.9	79.42	77.67	77.97(0.21%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-40	-170	-51	-7	4.74	55%	0.23	48.3	2.96%	0	-0	58	NAN
23	Aug_11_2010	70.39	77.87	80.49	80.64	80.48	79.66	77.81(-4.5%)	CR	SmallShort	-20	-0.7	-24	-80	-37	16	4.58	55%	0.23	58.5	3.01%	0	-0	61	NAN
24	Aug_10_2010	70.23	77.73	80.72	81.37	81.13	81.16	81.48(0.44%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0	15	-10	0	59	3.05	62%	0.31	72.5	2.95%	0	1	83	NAN
25	Aug_9_2010	70.01	77.34	80.52	81.08	81.14	81.29	81.12(-0.01%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0	21	20	5	69	1.88	62%		81	3.21%	0	0.9	84	NAN
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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