Trading Signals: CMI Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Mon. Aug. 10, 2009

Trading Signals: CMI Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Wed. Sep. 27, 2023)

(Cummins Inc.)
CMI latest price $47.3200 (0.38%) ($46.3700 - $47.6800) on Mon. Aug. 10, 2009.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   3.3% (three month average)
RSI   80
Latest Price   $47.3200(0.38%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   CMI advances 1.2% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   CMI advances 6.5% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support CMI advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
IWM(68%)    SPY(68%)    EWG(62%)    PEJ(61%)    EEM(60%)
Factors Impacting CMI price   CMI will decline at least -1.65% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-33%)    SHY(-12%)    TIP(-10%)    LQD(3%)    GLD(4%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -1.65% (StdDev 3.3%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 1.3%

5 Day Moving Average   $45.85(3.21%)
10 Day Moving Average   $43.97(7.62%)
20 Day Moving Average   $41.26(14.69%)
To recent high   0%
To recent low   60.9%
Market Cap   $6.984b

Cummins, Inc. engages in the design, manufacture, sale and service of diesel and natural gas engines and powertrain-related technologies, including fuel systems, controls, air handing, filtration, emission, solutions and electrical power generation systems. It operates through the following segments: Engine, Distribution, Components and Power Generation. The Engine segment manufactures and markets a range of diesel and natural gas powered engines under the Cummins brand name, for the heavy- and medium-duty truck, bus, recreational vehicle, light-duty automotive, agricultural, construction, mining, marine, oil and gas, rail and governmental equipment markets. The Distribution segment consists of parts, engines, power generation and service, which service and distributes range of its products and services. The Components segment supplies products which complement its Engine and Power Systems segment, including after treatment systems, turbochargers, filtration products and fuel systems for commercial diesel applications. The Power Generation segment designs and manufactures most of the components that make up power generation systems, including controls, alternators, transfer switches and switchgear. The company was founded by Clessie Lyle Cummins and William Glanton Irwin on February 3, 1919 and is headquartered in Columbus, IN.

$. CMI price fluctuates within 10.03% (three month std-dev: 3.3%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 7 Average positive next day return: 0.73%(29%) Average negative next day return: -3.89%(71%) Sample size 7 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: -5.89%(100%) Sample size 7 Average positive next weekly return: 5.76%(43%) Average negative next weekly return: -9.5%(57%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20090910

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Aug_10_2009	33.68	41.26	43.97	45.85	45.92	46.81	47.32(0.38%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.4	53	140	27	129	2.55	70%	0.72	87.9	3.3%	0	1.5	80	0
2	Aug_7_2009	33.44	40.56	43.34	45.3	45.28	45.9	47.14(4.64%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.4	52	90	28	122	3.34	67%	0.72	81.7	3.56%	0	1.6	83	0
3	Aug_6_2009	33.2	39.81	42.75	44.48	44.68	45.03	45.05(0.29%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.1	44	70	20	117	3.74	65%	0.64	74.5	3.76%	0	1.3	84	0
4	Aug_5_2009	32.99	39.19	42.36	43.73	43.89	44.67	44.92(0.18%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.3	50	140	25	124	3.4	65%	0.67	64.7	3.76%	0	1.4	84	0
5	Aug_4_2009	32.77	38.55	41.81	42.69	42.97	44.34	44.84(0.61%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.5	60	240	38	125	2.94	65%	0.71	54.5	3.76%	0	1.5	86	0

6	Aug_3_2009	32.54	37.91	41.29	41.78	41.75	43.11	44.57(3.63%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.7	61	230	36	134	2.71	65%	0.68	46.3	3.76%	0	1.7	88	0
7	Jul_31_2009	32.32	37.37	40.67	41.09	40.8	41.61	43.01(4.12%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.5	50	120	21	137	3.24	65%	0.65	43.3	3.77%	0	1.5	84	0
8	Jul_30_2009	32.11	36.92	40.02	40.82	40.8	40.39	41.31(3.98%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.1	42	-60	6	149	3.85	63%	0.6	43.9	3.74%	0	1.2	84	0
9	Jul_29_2009	31.92	36.63	39.53	40.8	40.67	39.99	39.73(-1.39%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.3	30	-130	-14	163	2.93	65%	0.6	51.4	3.72%	0	0.9	79	0
10	Jul_28_2009	31.73	36.39	39.11	40.76	40.87	40.96	40.29(-2.04%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.1	44	20	-2	183	3.54	65%	0.67	58.2	3.81%	0	1.2	83	0

11	Jul_27_2009	31.52	36.16	38.4	40.66	40.66	41.36	41.13(-1.2%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	62	120	17	198	2.49	65%	0.7	69.2	3.81%	0	1.6	85	0
12	Jul_24_2009	31.3	35.82	37.62	40.13	40.4	40.78	41.63(0.95%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	71	90	31	191	1.91	67%	0.74	74.2	3.85%	0	2	73	0
13	Jul_23_2009	31.07	35.42	36.67	39.09	39.53	39.96	41.24(4.33%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	54	110	21	153	2.27	69%	0.62	76	3.91%	0	2.2	72	0
14	Jul_22_2009	30.88	34.97	35.79	38.08	38.48	40.01	39.53(-0.6%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.6	53	310	31	120	2.74	69%	0.65	73.6	3.94%	0	2	60	0
15	Jul_21_2009	30.68	34.56	35.03	37.21	37.49	39.09	39.77(3.33%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.2	68	320	58	97	5.55	69%	0.72	62.4	4%	0	2.4	63	0

16	Jul_20_2009	30.46	34.09	34.24	35.8	35.95	36.96	38.49(5.68%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.4	38	210	38	39	2.61	64%	0.59	40.1	4%	0	2.2	56	0
17	Jul_17_2009	30.28	33.76	33.76	34.73	34.75	35.9	36.42(0.69%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1	25	230	31	7	2.22	62%	0.53	20	4.11%	0	1.5	55	0
18	Jul_16_2009	30.12	33.53	33.51	33.88	33.83	34.94	36.17(2.7%)	N/A	N/A	0	1.4	22	230	33	-13	1.53	62%	0.53	-5.1	4.11%	0	1.6	57	0
19	Jul_15_2009	29.96	33.34	33.43	33.15	32.97	33.6	35.22(7.77%)	N/A	N/A	0	1.4	12	120	23	-21	3.25	62%	0.47	-27.9	4.14%	0	1.2	61	0
20	Jul_14_2009	29.82	33.25	33.39	32.53	32.53	32.72	32.68(-1.51%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.1	-1	40	8	-29	2.8	59%	0.4	-48	4.03%	0	-0.4	58	0

21	Jul_13_2009	29.7	33.31	33.71	32.44	32.32	32.33	33.18(3.24%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.5	-8	-10	-5	-15	2.05	59%	0.44	-55.8	4.07%	0	-0.1	63	0
22	Jul_10_2009	29.57	33.42	33.88	32.65	32.49	32.34	32.14(-1.26%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-7	-50	-9	-2	2.02	59%	0.37	-51.9	4.05%	0	-0.8	52	0
23	Jul_9_2009	29.46	33.62	34.11	33.07	32.97	32.31	32.55(1.47%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.3	-10	-150	-18	14	1.96	64%	0.34	-42.6	4.08%	0	-0.7	55	0
24	Jul_8_2009	29.36	33.77	34.14	33.75	33.47	32.64	32.08(-0.53%)	N/A	N/A	0	-1	-13	-200	-26	26	2.58	64%	0.34	-29.6	4.36%	0	-1	50	0
25	Jul_7_2009	29.26	33.97	34.13	34.37	34.43	33.63	32.25(-5.73%)	N/A	N/A	0	-1.2	-8	-160	-22	35	1.99	59%		-20.6	4.37%	0	-1	47	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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