Trading Signals: CMI Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Mon. Oct. 8, 2007

Trading Signals: CMI Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Wed. Sep. 27, 2023)

(Cummins Inc.)
CMI latest price $68.4100 (-1.4%) ($67.0700 - $69.4100) on Mon. Oct. 8, 2007.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   3.5% (three month average)
RSI   52
Latest Price   $68.4100(-1.4%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   CMI advances 0.6% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   CMI advances 1.9% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support CMI advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
SPY(71%)    IWM(69%)    EEM(66%)    EWG(65%)    VWO(65%)
Factors Impacting CMI price   CMI will decline at least -1.75% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-32%)    SHY(-23%)    TIP(-14%)    GLD(6%)    LQD(8%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -1.75% (StdDev 3.5%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend -0.3%

5 Day Moving Average   $68.01(0.59%)
10 Day Moving Average   $66.89(2.27%)
20 Day Moving Average   $64.87(5.46%)
To recent high   -1.4%
To recent low   30%
Market Cap   $10.097b

Cummins, Inc. engages in the design, manufacture, sale and service of diesel and natural gas engines and powertrain-related technologies, including fuel systems, controls, air handing, filtration, emission, solutions and electrical power generation systems. It operates through the following segments: Engine, Distribution, Components and Power Generation. The Engine segment manufactures and markets a range of diesel and natural gas powered engines under the Cummins brand name, for the heavy- and medium-duty truck, bus, recreational vehicle, light-duty automotive, agricultural, construction, mining, marine, oil and gas, rail and governmental equipment markets. The Distribution segment consists of parts, engines, power generation and service, which service and distributes range of its products and services. The Components segment supplies products which complement its Engine and Power Systems segment, including after treatment systems, turbochargers, filtration products and fuel systems for commercial diesel applications. The Power Generation segment designs and manufactures most of the components that make up power generation systems, including controls, alternators, transfer switches and switchgear. The company was founded by Clessie Lyle Cummins and William Glanton Irwin on February 3, 1919 and is headquartered in Columbus, IN.

$. CMI price fluctuates within 5.69% (three month std-dev: 3.5%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 2 Average positive next day return: 0.12%(50%) Average negative next day return: -3.52%(50%) Sample size 2 Average positive next three day return: 10.19%(50%) Average negative next three day return: -7.89%(50%) Sample size 2 Average positive next weekly return: 8.02%(50%) Average negative next weekly return: -11.58%(50%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

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i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Oct_8_2007	56.04	64.87	66.89	68.01	68.04	68.87	68.41(-1.4%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	19	90	13	38	2.42	65%	0.45	66.6	3.5%	0	1	52	0
2	Oct_5_2007	55.79	64.3	66.5	67.59	67.65	68.42	69.38(1.7%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	40	80	36	50	3.05	65%	0.45	57.6	3.49%	0	1.3	69	0
3	Oct_4_2007	55.54	63.7	66.11	66.51	66.6	67.21	68.22(2.54%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	22	70	16	41	3.66	65%	0.45	53	3.5%	0	1.2	70	0
4	Oct_3_2007	55.29	63.24	65.78	65.95	65.84	66.88	66.53(-1.48%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	24	110	17	46	3.65	65%	0.4	54.3	3.51%	0	0.9	68	0
5	Oct_2_2007	55.07	62.86	65.71	65.76	65.56	65.98	67.53(1.86%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	31	40	19	65	4	66%	0.42	60.3	3.51%	0	1.3	74	0

6	Oct_1_2007	54.84	62.5	65.64	65.64	65.39	64.8	66.3(3.67%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.2	18	-70	-2	78	3.38	66%	0.38	65.7	3.53%	0	1.1	69	0
7	Sep_28_2007	54.63	62.14	65.14	65.25	65.42	65.15	63.95(-2.26%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.4	7	-20	-17	80	3.57	65%	0.37	65.7	3.51%	0	0.5	71	0
8	Sep_27_2007	54.43	61.76	64.8	65.62	65.58	65.99	65.43(-0.21%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	30	40	5	105	2.67	66%	0.39	64.9	3.5%	0	1	72	0
9	Sep_26_2007	54.22	61.28	64.29	65.55	65.52	65.7	65.57(-2.03%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0	34	20	8	110	3.43	66%	0.41	61	3.51%	0	1.1	64	0
10	Sep_25_2007	54	60.75	63.56	65.62	65.36	65.16	66.93(3.94%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.3	21	-30	-8	106	3.66	66%	0.41	59.7	3.51%	0	1.6	68	0

11	Sep_24_2007	53.78	60.25	62.74	65.69	65.91	65.34	64.39(-2.1%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.4	32	-50	5	111	2.98	65%	0.37	69.8	3.5%	0	1.1	59	0
12	Sep_21_2007	53.58	59.93	61.99	64.99	65.66	65.56	65.77(1.06%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	31	20	9	97	2.71	65%	0.39	74	3.49%	0	1.7	65	0
13	Sep_20_2007	53.37	59.44	61.13	63.82	64.34	66.48	65.08(-1.32%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.4	48	260	33	93	2.59	66%	0.36	74.4	3.49%	0	1.7	70	0
14	Sep_19_2007	53.18	59.06	60.5	62.78	62.85	65.75	65.95(-1.95%)	UD	OpenLong	75	1	90	330	84	108	5.9	67%	0.4	77.9	3.49%	0	2.3	72	0
15	Sep_18_2007	52.97	58.51	59.76	61.17	60.75	62.21	67.26(10.48%)	UT	HoldLong	65	2.3	68	150	62	85	6.61	67%	0.4	70.5	3.52%	0	3.3	77	0

16	Sep_17_2007	52.76	57.81	59	59.44	59.23	59.95	60.88(1.57%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	32	70	25	54	2.25	64%	0.25	58.5	3.3%	0	1.6	58	0
17	Sep_14_2007	52.63	57.43	58.8	58.57	58.61	59.28	59.94(0.08%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	28	80	23	41	1.64	64%	0.34	34.8	3.3%	0	1.2	54	0
18	Sep_13_2007	52.45	57.07	58.41	58.01	57.95	58.52	59.89(3.51%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	17	70	14	27	3.11	64%	0.34	22	3.3%	0	1.3	59	0
19	Sep_12_2007	52.27	56.77	58.01	57.88	57.57	57.93	57.86(-1.3%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0	7	30	4	16	3.23	63%	0.29	9.1	3.27%	0	0.5	51	0
20	Sep_11_2007	52.12	56.68	57.72	58.11	57.82	57.38	58.62(3.72%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.2	0	-70	-5	15	3.41	63%	0.33	-1	3.27%	0	0.9	58	0

21	Sep_10_2007	51.95	56.7	57.6	58.52	58.19	57.2	56.52(-1.15%)	CR	SmallShort	-20	-0.9	-15	-140	-28	24	3.34	62%	0.35	-1.8	3.25%	0	-0.1	59	0
22	Sep_7_2007	51.77	56.72	57.78	59.06	58.92	58.25	57.18(-3.41%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.8	5	-90	-13	57	2.54	62%	0.41	-0.8	3.24%	0	0.2	62	0
23	Sep_6_2007	51.56	56.59	57.71	58.78	59.07	59.17	59.2(0.32%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	25	30	9	74	2.36	61%	0.43	-20.1	3.22%	0	1.1	68	0
24	Sep_5_2007	51.34	56.58	57.56	58.11	58.19	59.6	59.01(-2.77%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.4	41	170	28	80	3.09	63%	0.43	-28.9	3.3%	0	1.1	62	0
25	Sep_4_2007	51.12	56.7	57.21	57.24	57.17	58.96	60.69(2.5%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.3	53	220	47	71	4.21	63%		-30.3	3.37%	0	1.5	59	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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