Trading Signals: CMI Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Mon. Aug. 21, 2006

Trading Signals: CMI Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Wed. Sep. 27, 2023)

(Cummins Inc.)
CMI latest price $30.2900 (-0.79%) ($30.1200 - $30.5300) on Mon. Aug. 21, 2006.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   1.96% (three month average)
RSI   60
Latest Price   $30.2900(-0.79%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   CMI advances 0.9% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   CMI advances 1.1% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support CMI advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
SPY(69%)    IWM(68%)    EEM(65%)    VWO(64%)    EWG(63%)
Factors Impacting CMI price   CMI will decline at least -0.98% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-31%)    SHY(-22%)    TIP(-14%)    GLD(6%)    LQD(7%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.98% (StdDev 1.96%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend -0.8%

5 Day Moving Average   $30.34(-0.16%)
10 Day Moving Average   $29.85(1.47%)
20 Day Moving Average   $29.53(2.57%)
To recent high   -2.3%
To recent low   20.1%
Market Cap   $4.471b

Cummins, Inc. engages in the design, manufacture, sale and service of diesel and natural gas engines and powertrain-related technologies, including fuel systems, controls, air handing, filtration, emission, solutions and electrical power generation systems. It operates through the following segments: Engine, Distribution, Components and Power Generation. The Engine segment manufactures and markets a range of diesel and natural gas powered engines under the Cummins brand name, for the heavy- and medium-duty truck, bus, recreational vehicle, light-duty automotive, agricultural, construction, mining, marine, oil and gas, rail and governmental equipment markets. The Distribution segment consists of parts, engines, power generation and service, which service and distributes range of its products and services. The Components segment supplies products which complement its Engine and Power Systems segment, including after treatment systems, turbochargers, filtration products and fuel systems for commercial diesel applications. The Power Generation segment designs and manufactures most of the components that make up power generation systems, including controls, alternators, transfer switches and switchgear. The company was founded by Clessie Lyle Cummins and William Glanton Irwin on February 3, 1919 and is headquartered in Columbus, IN.

$. CMI price fluctuates within 2.74% (three month std-dev: 1.96%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 3 Average positive next day return: 1.32%(67%) Average negative next day return: -1.39%(33%) Sample size 3 Average positive next three day return: 1.44%(67%) Average negative next three day return: -0.1%(33%) Sample size 3 Average positive next weekly return: 2%(67%) Average negative next weekly return: -2.2%(33%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20060921

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Aug_21_2006	27.96	29.53	29.85	30.34	30.39	30.5	30.29(-0.79%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	17	30	10	38	2.91	61%	0.14	66.1	1.96%	0	0.9	60	NAN
2	Aug_18_2006	27.92	29.44	29.87	30.06	30.16	30.61	30.53(-1.48%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.5	29	110	25	40	4.53	62%	0.14	52.9	1.97%	0	1.2	60	NAN
3	Aug_17_2006	27.88	29.28	29.81	29.74	29.77	30.28	30.99(2.89%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.4	32	120	30	36	6.29	59%	0.18	37.5	1.96%	0	1.9	67	NAN
4	Aug_16_2006	27.83	29.13	29.68	29.45	29.42	29.72	30.12(1.11%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	23	70	20	33	6.56	58%	0.14	27.3	1.97%	0	1.2	69	NAN
5	Aug_15_2006	27.79	29.08	29.59	29.28	29.26	29.26	29.79(3.15%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	7	-0	1	24	2.81	58%	0.11	18.3	1.97%	0	0.9	63	NAN

6	Aug_14_2006	27.76	29	29.53	29.31	29.33	29.12	28.88(-0.17%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.6	-9	-50	-20	26	4.11	56%	0.11	11.2	1.94%	0	-0.2	57	NAN
7	Aug_11_2006	27.73	28.97	29.57	29.65	29.64	29.25	28.93(-2.03%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.9	-1	-90	-19	55	4.18	55%	0.11	14.9	1.96%	0	-0.1	56	NAN
8	Aug_10_2006	27.7	28.95	29.59	29.88	29.91	29.53	29.53(0.96%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.4	9	-90	-17	86	3.9	59%	0.11	18.6	1.95%	0	0.7	70	NAN
9	Aug_9_2006	27.67	28.92	29.44	29.93	30.09	30.03	29.25(-2.3%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.9	20	0	-5	93	5.96	60%	0.11	15	2.01%	0	0.4	60	NAN
10	Aug_8_2006	27.64	28.94	29.36	29.92	30.02	30.28	29.94(-2.12%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0	33	70	12	95	5.64	62%	0.11	13.9	2%	0	1.2	55	NAN

11	Aug_7_2006	27.61	28.92	29.21	29.77	29.74	30.16	30.59(1.73%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1	41	100	23	93	5.3	64%	0.11	5.1	1.98%	0	2.1	64	NAN
12	Aug_4_2006	27.58	28.85	28.99	29.5	29.47	29.77	30.07(0.84%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	38	70	23	83	7.14	65%	0.11	-11	1.99%	0	1.7	63	NAN
13	Aug_3_2006	27.55	28.81	28.71	29.26	29.22	29.32	29.82(2.12%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	29	20	20	57	4.25	65%	0.11	-23.3	1.99%	0	1.5	57	NAN
14	Aug_2_2006	27.52	28.8	28.53	28.88	28.99	29.18	29.2(0.17%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	13	60	10	23	2.74	62%	0.11	-28.3	1.97%	0	0.6	52	NAN
15	Aug_1_2006	27.49	28.82	28.51	28.7	28.87	29.11	29.15(-0.34%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.6	14	80	16	9	3.52	64%	0.11	-22	1.99%	0	0.5	45	NAN

16	Jul_31_2006	27.46	28.88	28.42	28.55	28.67	28.8	29.25(1.21%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.9	5	40	12	-15	3.86	64%	0.11	-11.9	2%	0	0.5	45	NAN
17	Jul_28_2006	27.43	28.93	28.3	28.4	28.5	28.63	28.9(3.51%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.6	2	40	15	-37	6.38	60%	0.11	-0.7	2.03%	0	-0	45	NAN
18	Jul_27_2006	27.4	28.97	28.25	28.09	28.36	28.54	27.92(-1.34%)	DT	HoldShort	-50	-0.2	-11	70	7	-65	9.01	56%	0.07	0.3	2.05%	0	-1.2	39	NAN
19	Jul_26_2006	27.38	29	28.35	28.12	28.13	28.36	28.3(-0.32%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	0.2	-20	60	-2	-75	5.34	57%	0.07	4	2.09%	0	-0.8	38	NAN
20	Jul_25_2006	27.36	28.98	28.48	28.27	28.22	28.19	28.39(-0.35%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.1	-12	-10	6	-66	3.95	57%	0.07	11.4	2.1%	0	-0.7	39	NAN

21	Jul_24_2006	27.34	28.97	28.61	28.26	28.36	27.89	28.49(4.21%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.3	-25	-110	-7	-78	4.29	57%	0.04	16.9	2.1%	0	-0.5	36	NAN
22	Jul_21_2006	27.33	28.94	28.71	28.19	28.41	28.26	27.34(-2.6%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.9	-43	-10	-24	-101	5.68	55%	0.04	19.2	2.04%	0	-1.7	23	NAN
23	Jul_20_2006	27.32	28.94	28.93	28.44	28.53	28.83	28.07(-3.47%)	DT	HoldShort	-50	-0.4	-20	80	1	-83	4.48	56%	0.04	31.8	2.01%	0	-1	37	NAN
24	Jul_19_2006	27.31	28.97	29.11	28.6	28.51	28.56	29.08(2.61%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.5	-13	0	3	-62	4.82	59%	0.07	44.8	1.97%	0	0.1	59	NAN
25	Jul_18_2006	27.29	28.88	29.17	28.73	28.57	28.24	28.34(0.85%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-28	-100	-22	-47	3.95	59%		54.9	1.96%	0	-0.5	59	NAN
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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