Trading Signals: CAT Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Thu. Feb. 18, 2016

Trading Signals: CAT Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Fri. Mar. 14, 2014 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Caterpillar)
CAT latest price $60.6541 (-1.69%) ($59.7551 - $62.0117) on Thu. Feb. 18, 2016.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   2.16% (three month average)
RSI   63
Latest Price   $60.6541(-1.69%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   CAT advances 1.3% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   CAT advances 2% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Growth stock sell-off for large cap. Growth stock sell-off for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support CAT advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
IVE(69%)    IWD(69%)    XLI(69%)    SDY(67%)    XLB(67%)
Factors Impacting CAT price   CAT will decline at least -1.08% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-30%)    VIXM(-24%)    UUP(-12%)    SHY(-7%)    BNDX(-7%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -1.08% (StdDev 2.16%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend -1.5%

5 Day Moving Average   $59.29(2.3%)
10 Day Moving Average   $59.26(2.35%)
20 Day Moving Average   $57.54(5.41%)
To recent high   -7.8%
To recent low   14.2%
Market Cap   $32.845b

Caterpillar, Inc. engages in the manufacture of construction and mining equipment, diesel and natural gas engines, industrial gas turbines, and diesel-electric locomotives. It operates through the following segments: Construction Industries, Resource Industries, Energy and Transportation, Financial Products, and All Other. The Construction Industries segment supports customers using machinery in infrastructure and building construction applications. The Resource Industries segment is responsible for supporting customers using machinery in mining and quarrying applications and it includes business strategy, product design, product management and development, manufacturing, marketing and sales and product support. The Energy and Transportation segment supports customers in oil and gas, power generation, marine, rail, and industrial applications. The Financial Products segment offers a range of financing alternatives to customers and dealers for Caterpillar machinery and engines, solar gas turbines, as well as other equipment and marine vessels. The All Other segments include activities such as; the business strategy, product management and development, and manufacturing of filters and fluids, undercarriage, tires and rims, engaging tools, and fluid transfers. The company was founded on April 15, 1925 and is headquartered in Deerfield, IL.

$. CAT price fluctuates within 4.26% (three month std-dev: 2.16%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 13 Average positive next day return: 1.11%(54%) Average negative next day return: -2.9%(46%) Sample size 13 Average positive next three day return: 2.48%(38%) Average negative next three day return: -4.49%(62%) Sample size 13 Average positive next weekly return: 4.76%(31%) Average negative next weekly return: -5.06%(69%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20160318

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Feb_18_2016	61.2	57.54	59.26	59.29	59.72	61.09	60.65(-1.69%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.6	55	180	48	75	6.18	53%	0.03	46.2	2.16%	0	1.3	63	0
2	Feb_17_2016	61.18	57.2	58.99	58.56	58.52	60.22	61.7(3.14%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.3	69	200	64	83	7.37	53%	0.07	34.9	2.15%	0	1.8	71	0
3	Feb_16_2016	61.14	56.82	58.39	57.95	57.72	58.35	59.82(3.26%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	47	60	40	66	4.82	51%	0.1	27	2.12%	0	1.3	65	0
4	Feb_12_2016	61.08	56.56	58.15	57.83	57.55	56.83	57.93(2.83%)	N/A	N/A	0	0	-2	-100	-23	60	4.3	46%	-0.02	22	2.08%	0	0.6	65	0
5	Feb_11_2016	61.09	56.48	58.08	58.38	58.06	57.1	56.33(-1.17%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.9	-25	-130	-56	69	7.06	43%	-0.11	26.4	2.11%	0	-0.1	52	0

6	Feb_10_2016	61.16	56.43	58.09	59.21	59.12	58.27	57(-2.8%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-1	8	-110	-27	113	5.96	43%	-0.11	27.2	2.11%	0	0.3	57	0
7	Feb_9_2016	61.23	56.37	57.8	59.42	59.54	59.01	58.65(-1.01%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.4	27	-60	-7	130	5.64	43%	-0.11	19.5	2.09%	0	1.1	63	0
8	Feb_8_2016	61.3	56.21	57.38	58.82	59.13	59.97	59.24(-2.33%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	43	120	16	125	6.32	43%	-0.08	-0.5	2.11%	0	1.4	64	0
9	Feb_5_2016	61.35	56.09	56.79	58.47	58.25	60.07	60.65(0.24%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.1	83	210	67	131	7.46	45%	-0.1	-14.8	2.09%	0	2.3	64	0
10	Feb_4_2016	61.41	55.91	56.27	57.76	57.41	58.28	60.51(4.25%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.6	80	90	70	111	12.6	45%	-0.11	-39	2.09%	0	2.6	58	0

11	Feb_3_2016	61.48	55.84	55.66	56.87	56.66	56.43	58.04(4.29%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	29	-40	17	66	8.33	41%	-0.15	-62.2	2.01%	0	1.3	57	0
12	Feb_2_2016	61.57	55.95	55.24	55.96	56.43	56.54	55.65(-3.24%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.2	10	40	5	26	6.28	36%	-0.16	-68.6	1.93%	0	-0.2	50	0
13	Feb_1_2016	61.67	56.22	55.09	55.68	55.86	56.89	57.52(0.74%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	39	140	44	25	5.96	39%	-0.13	-64.6	1.91%	0	0.6	55	0
14	Jan_29_2016	61.75	56.39	54.8	54.8	55.07	56.31	57.09(1.9%)	RB	SmallLong	20	1	39	170	55	-11	8.22	39%	-0.13	-77.1	1.92%	0	0.3	48	0
15	Jan_28_2016	61.83	56.61	54.69	54.57	54.32	54.83	56.03(4.73%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.6	13	50	30	-37	13.57	41%	-0.16	-71.9	1.9%	0	-0.2	43	0

16	Jan_27_2016	61.93	56.91	54.58	54.32	54.4	53.83	53.5(-1.42%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-25	-70	-4	-87	11.01	36%	-0.21	-62.3	1.82%	0	-1.2	29	0
17	Jan_26_2016	62.06	57.34	54.82	54.41	54.58	53.81	54.27(2.16%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0	-52	-90	-29	-122	8.14	36%	-0.13	-54.7	1.82%	0	-1	28	0
18	Jan_25_2016	62.14	57.76	54.96	54.38	54.43	54.97	53.12(-5.03%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.4	-55	70	-22	-153	10.97	33%	-0.21	-48.4	1.8%	0	-1.5	22	0
19	Jan_22_2016	62.27	58.27	55.38	54.74	54.68	55.35	55.94(2.16%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.4	-1	80	48	-146	7.82	41%	-0.18	-44.9	1.7%	0	-0.8	26	0
20	Jan_21_2016	62.38	58.57	55.55	54.84	54.27	53.89	54.76(1.5%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0	-56	-80	-11	-190	8.8	38%	-0.22	-40.5	1.72%	0	-1.2	18	0

21	Jan_20_2016	62.52	58.81	56.04	54.92	54.64	54	53.95(-0.37%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.3	-82	-100	-37	-215	10.86	38%	-0.22	-40.3	1.71%	0	-1.5	12	0
22	Jan_19_2016	62.66	59.09	56.72	55.29	55.24	54.64	54.15(-1.4%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.4	-74	-80	-30	-207	8.5	38%	-0.32	-40	1.72%	0	-1.6	17	0
23	Jan_15_2016	62.86	59.35	57.45	55.6	55.55	55.27	54.92(-2.65%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.2	-79	-40	-35	-209	12.67	38%	-0.22	-44.2	1.71%	0	-1.6	16	0
24	Jan_14_2016	63	59.69	58.1	56.08	56.03	55.83	56.42(2.27%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.1	-61	-30	-15	-200	9.24	40%	-0.16	-40.4	1.68%	0	-1.2	18	0
25	Jan_13_2016	63.1	59.91	58.67	56.39	56.5	55.84	55.17(-1.15%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.5	-85	-80	-45	-206	7.24	37%		-38.9	1.66%	0	-1.9	21	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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