Trading Signals: CAT Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Tue. Jan. 26, 2016

Trading Signals: CAT Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Fri. Mar. 14, 2014 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Caterpillar)
CAT latest price $54.2694 (2.16%) ($53.2879 - $54.7281) on Tue. Jan. 26, 2016.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   1.82% (three month average)
RSI   28
Latest Price   $54.2694(2.16%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   CAT advances 0.1% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   CAT declines -3.4% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Broad based rally for large cap. Broad based rally for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support CAT advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
IVE(69%)    IWD(69%)    XLI(69%)    SDY(67%)    XLB(67%)
Factors Impacting CAT price   CAT will decline at least -0.91% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-30%)    VIXM(-25%)    UUP(-12%)    SHY(-7%)    BNDX(-7%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.91% (StdDev 1.82%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 1.3%

1 - 5 Day Possible Target   $45.17(-16.77%)
Resistance Level   $57.34
5 Day Moving Average   $54.41(-0.26%)
10 Day Moving Average   $54.82(-1%)
20 Day Moving Average   $57.34(-5.36%)
To recent high   -19.9%
To recent low   2.2%
Market Cap   $29.387b

Caterpillar, Inc. engages in the manufacture of construction and mining equipment, diesel and natural gas engines, industrial gas turbines, and diesel-electric locomotives. It operates through the following segments: Construction Industries, Resource Industries, Energy and Transportation, Financial Products, and All Other. The Construction Industries segment supports customers using machinery in infrastructure and building construction applications. The Resource Industries segment is responsible for supporting customers using machinery in mining and quarrying applications and it includes business strategy, product design, product management and development, manufacturing, marketing and sales and product support. The Energy and Transportation segment supports customers in oil and gas, power generation, marine, rail, and industrial applications. The Financial Products segment offers a range of financing alternatives to customers and dealers for Caterpillar machinery and engines, solar gas turbines, as well as other equipment and marine vessels. The All Other segments include activities such as; the business strategy, product management and development, and manufacturing of filters and fluids, undercarriage, tires and rims, engaging tools, and fluid transfers. The company was founded on April 15, 1925 and is headquartered in Deerfield, IL.

$. CAT price fluctuates within 5.41% (three month std-dev: 1.82%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 6 Average positive next day return: 0.15%(33%) Average negative next day return: -0.39%(67%) Sample size 6 Average positive next three day return: 3.02%(50%) Average negative next three day return: -0.83%(50%) Sample size 6 Average positive next weekly return: 4.42%(33%) Average negative next weekly return: -2.16%(67%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20160226

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Jan_26_2016	62.06	57.34	54.82	54.41	54.58	53.81	54.27(2.16%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0	-52	-90	-29	-122	8.14	36%	-0.13	-54.7	1.82%	0	-1	28	INF
2	Jan_25_2016	62.14	57.76	54.96	54.38	54.43	54.97	53.12(-5.03%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.4	-55	70	-22	-153	10.97	33%	-0.21	-48.4	1.8%	0	-1.5	22	INF
3	Jan_22_2016	62.27	58.27	55.38	54.74	54.68	55.35	55.94(2.16%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.4	-1	80	48	-146	7.82	41%	-0.18	-44.9	1.7%	0	-0.8	26	INF
4	Jan_21_2016	62.38	58.57	55.55	54.84	54.27	53.89	54.76(1.5%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0	-56	-80	-11	-190	8.8	38%	-0.22	-40.5	1.72%	0	-1.2	18	INF
5	Jan_20_2016	62.52	58.81	56.04	54.92	54.64	54	53.95(-0.37%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.3	-82	-100	-37	-215	10.86	38%	-0.22	-40.3	1.71%	0	-1.5	12	INF

6	Jan_19_2016	62.66	59.09	56.72	55.29	55.24	54.64	54.15(-1.4%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.4	-74	-80	-30	-207	8.5	38%	-0.32	-40	1.72%	0	-1.6	17	INF
7	Jan_15_2016	62.86	59.35	57.45	55.6	55.55	55.27	54.92(-2.65%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.2	-79	-40	-35	-209	12.67	38%	-0.22	-44.2	1.71%	0	-1.6	16	INF
8	Jan_14_2016	63	59.69	58.1	56.08	56.03	55.83	56.42(2.27%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.1	-61	-30	-15	-200	9.24	40%	-0.16	-40.4	1.68%	0	-1.2	18	INF
9	Jan_13_2016	63.1	59.91	58.67	56.39	56.5	55.84	55.17(-1.15%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.5	-85	-80	-45	-206	7.24	37%	-0.14	-38.9	1.66%	0	-1.9	21	INF
10	Jan_12_2016	63.19	60.18	59.43	57.35	57.19	56.24	55.81(0.21%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.7	-93	-120	-67	-169	8.59	37%	-0.16	-36.2	1.65%	0	-1.9	42	INF

11	Jan_11_2016	63.29	60.38	60.08	58.38	58.19	57.16	55.69(-2.88%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.3	-87	-130	-74	-124	9.67	37%	-0.19	-36	1.66%	0	-2.3	42	INF
12	Jan_8_2016	63.41	60.63	60.82	59.56	59.37	58.13	57.34(-1.02%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.3	-65	-160	-65	-63	8.28	43%	-0.17	-31.8	1.62%	0	-1.9	48	INF
13	Jan_7_2016	63.52	60.77	61.44	60.41	60.14	59.21	57.93(-3.44%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.6	-64	-120	-75	-29	8.6	43%	-0.19	-34	1.64%	0	-1.9	40	INF
14	Jan_6_2016	63.64	60.91	61.89	61.27	61	60.61	59.99(-1.58%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.9	-22	-60	-37	25	6.64	50%	-0.17	-35.2	1.59%	0	-0.7	50	INF
15	Jan_5_2016	63.75	61.01	61.85	61.81	61.62	61.06	60.96(-1.04%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.6	-4	-70	-21	46	6.14	57%	-0.16	-37.6	1.61%	0	-0	56	INF

16	Jan_4_2016	63.85	61.12	61.69	62.04	61.96	61.39	61.6(0.04%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.3	-14	-70	-34	45	8.59	57%	-0.23	-37	1.73%	0	0.3	61	INF
17	Dec_31_2015	64	61.18	61.44	62.3	62.32	62.17	61.57(-1.06%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.5	-3	-20	-21	52	4.36	59%	-0.14	-34.3	1.75%	0	0.3	56	INF
18	Dec_30_2015	64.09	61.3	61.42	62.65	62.58	62.53	62.23(-0.72%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.3	20	-10	-0	81	3.16	59%	-0.12	-26.8	1.76%	0	0.6	60	INF
19	Dec_29_2015	64.17	61.4	61.24	62.59	62.77	62.46	62.69(0.89%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.1	34	-30	15	89	3.54	59%	-0.14	-24.5	1.76%	0	0.7	59	INF
20	Dec_28_2015	64.26	61.53	60.95	61.88	62.37	62.63	62.13(-1.15%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	23	50	12	56	3.88	56%	-0.2	-28.8	1.76%	0	0.3	50	INF

21	Dec_24_2015	64.39	61.63	60.67	61.25	61.59	63.08	62.86(-0.73%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.7	54	190	60	35	2.32	50%	-0.09	-33.5	1.77%	0	0.6	46	INF
22	Dec_23_2015	64.45	61.7	60.37	60.44	60.54	62.12	63.32(2.16%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.3	55	190	72	2	7.59	48%	-0.08	-40.2	1.93%	0	0.7	48	INF
23	Dec_22_2015	64.5	61.75	59.98	60.05	59.72	60.09	61.98(4.86%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.8	16	30	36	-46	9.7	46%	-0.11	-40.9	1.93%	0	0.1	40	INF
24	Dec_21_2015	64.57	61.85	59.79	59.74	59.63	58.97	59.11(0.2%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-38	-80	-17	-102	5.31	40%	-0.19	-42.6	1.83%	0	-1.2	25	INF
25	Dec_18_2015	64.69	62.12	60.06	59.9	59.82	59.36	58.99(0.32%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-53	-60	-30	-122	13.49	38%		-39.2	1.83%	0	-1.3	23	INF
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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