Trading Signals: CAT Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Tue. Sep. 2, 2014

Trading Signals: CAT Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Fri. Mar. 14, 2014 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Caterpillar)
CAT latest price $94.4030 (-0.14%) ($94.3250 - $95.1050) on Tue. Sep. 2, 2014.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   0.93% (three month average)
RSI   78
Latest Price   $94.4030(-0.14%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   CAT advances 0.2% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   CAT advances 1.3% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support CAT advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
XLI(69%)    XLB(67%)    IWM(63%)    XLF(63%)    SPY(62%)
Factors Impacting CAT price   CAT will decline at least -0.465% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-30%)    VIXM(-28%)    UUP(-10%)    SHY(-8%)    BNDX(-8%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.465% (StdDev 0.93%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend -0.1%

5 Day Moving Average   $94.17(0.25%)
10 Day Moving Average   $93.77(0.68%)
20 Day Moving Average   $92.15(2.44%)
To recent high   -1.6%
To recent low   8.4%
Market Cap   $51.12b

Caterpillar, Inc. engages in the manufacture of construction and mining equipment, diesel and natural gas engines, industrial gas turbines, and diesel-electric locomotives. It operates through the following segments: Construction Industries, Resource Industries, Energy and Transportation, Financial Products, and All Other. The Construction Industries segment supports customers using machinery in infrastructure and building construction applications. The Resource Industries segment is responsible for supporting customers using machinery in mining and quarrying applications and it includes business strategy, product design, product management and development, manufacturing, marketing and sales and product support. The Energy and Transportation segment supports customers in oil and gas, power generation, marine, rail, and industrial applications. The Financial Products segment offers a range of financing alternatives to customers and dealers for Caterpillar machinery and engines, solar gas turbines, as well as other equipment and marine vessels. The All Other segments include activities such as; the business strategy, product management and development, and manufacturing of filters and fluids, undercarriage, tires and rims, engaging tools, and fluid transfers. The company was founded on April 15, 1925 and is headquartered in Deerfield, IL.

$. CAT price fluctuates within 2.28% (three month std-dev: 0.93%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 20 Average positive next day return: 0.9%(45%) Average negative next day return: -0.76%(55%) Sample size 20 Average positive next three day return: 1.83%(60%) Average negative next three day return: -1.66%(40%) Sample size 20 Average positive next weekly return: 1.76%(65%) Average negative next weekly return: -1.95%(35%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20141002

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Sep_2_2014	91.65	92.15	93.77	94.17	94.19	94.45	94.4(-0.14%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	46	20	29	95	4.04	61%	0.12	67.5	0.93%	0	1.1	78	0
2	Aug_29_2014	91.54	91.85	93.6	94	93.99	94.11	94.53(0.39%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.2	42	10	22	100	4.44	58%	0.08	55.3	0.95%	0	1.1	83	0
3	Aug_28_2014	91.47	91.48	93.32	93.7	93.81	93.93	94.17(0.09%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.2	35	10	13	99	3.23	58%	0.08	43.9	0.96%	0	1.1	86	0
4	Aug_27_2014	91.4	91.14	93.06	93.58	93.59	93.87	94.08(0.45%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.2	42	20	16	118	3.28	58%	0.07	36.9	0.96%	0	1.3	88	0
5	Aug_26_2014	91.34	90.91	92.78	93.43	93.51	93.68	93.66(0.08%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.1	54	20	26	139	2.87	58%	0.08	28.4	0.96%	0	1.2	88	0

6	Aug_25_2014	91.27	90.75	92.57	93.3	93.39	93.31	93.58(0.62%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.1	44	-0	8	151	3.02	58%	0.08	18.4	0.97%	0	1.3	88	0
7	Aug_22_2014	91.2	90.57	92.27	93.13	93.23	93.33	93.01(-0.61%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	43	10	3	161	4.61	58%	0.05	5	0.97%	0	1.2	83	0
8	Aug_21_2014	91.15	90.44	91.94	92.86	93.11	93.46	93.58(0.25%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.4	77	30	41	185	4.12	60%	0.07	-9.3	0.97%	0	1.6	91	0
9	Aug_20_2014	91.09	90.44	91.43	92.46	92.63	93.13	93.35(0.37%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.5	77	40	42	180	5.34	53%	0.09	-24.8	0.98%	0	1.6	88	0
10	Aug_19_2014	91.01	90.29	90.9	92.02	92.18	92.76	93(0.3%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	74	50	50	147	3.64	53%	0.09	-32.8	1.08%	0	1.3	64	0

11	Aug_18_2014	90.93	90.36	90.4	91.73	91.65	92.13	92.72(1.17%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	60	30	40	119	3.48	53%	0.09	-32.3	1.09%	0	1	56	0
12	Aug_15_2014	90.85	90.46	89.95	91.3	91.38	91.6	91.65(0.08%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.1	51	20	36	94	4.1	51%	0.08	-33.8	1.08%	0	0.5	55	0
13	Aug_14_2014	90.78	90.62	89.5	90.88	91.09	91.6	91.58(0.48%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	37	10	30	56	4.18	51%	0.09	-35	1.1%	0	0.4	51	0
14	Aug_13_2014	90.7	90.79	89.07	90.23	90.46	91.17	91.14(-0.47%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	30	60	34	16	4.66	52%	0.08	-37	1.1%	0	0.1	48	0
15	Aug_12_2014	90.63	91	88.88	89.6	89.95	91.01	91.58(1.11%)	RB	SmallLong	20	0.7	73	90	98	-4	4.18	53%	0.1	-40.4	1.1%	0	0.2	37	0

16	Aug_11_2014	90.54	91.13	88.75	88.88	89	89.75	90.57(1.18%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.5	33	60	66	-68	5.2	52%	0.08	-45.5	1.1%	0	-0.2	29	0
17	Aug_8_2014	90.47	91.33	88.68	88.41	88.36	88.89	89.51(1.31%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.3	6	40	48	-122	4.69	50%	0.08	-49.3	1.09%	0	-0.6	24	0
18	Aug_7_2014	90.4	91.58	88.78	87.93	88.03	88.26	88.35(0.44%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.1	-14	20	38	-170	5.75	48%	0.08	-54.8	1.08%	0	-1	17	0
19	Aug_6_2014	90.33	91.88	89.04	87.72	87.54	87.83	87.96(-0.01%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	0.1	-62	20	-8	-223	5.53	48%	0.06	-58.2	1.08%	0	-1.2	15	0
20	Aug_5_2014	90.28	92.24	89.6	88.05	87.63	87.79	87.97(-0.3%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0	-58	-0	-3	-221	5.69	48%	0.07	-57.2	1.09%	0	-1.4	14	0

21	Aug_4_2014	90.22	92.57	90.31	88.6	88.22	87.25	88.24(1.28%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-87	-90	-43	-219	5.18	48%	0.08	-54.3	1.09%	0	-1.5	25	0
22	Aug_1_2014	90.15	92.91	91.01	89.01	89.11	87.48	87.12(-0.23%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.7	-149	-120	-119	-238	6.01	46%	-0.03	-51.2	1.08%	0	-2.1	18	0
23	Jul_31_2014	90.18	93.36	91.86	89.76	89.98	89.19	87.32(-2.54%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-1	-130	-50	-105	-206	6.71	46%	-0.03	-46.2	1.08%	0	-2.5	19	0
24	Jul_30_2014	90.21	93.74	92.69	90.5	90.63	90.75	89.6(-1.25%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-58	10	-26	-152	5.86	50%	-0.01	-44.9	1.04%	0	-2.1	28	0
25	Jul_29_2014	90.22	93.99	93.34	91.37	90.85	90.77	90.74(0.52%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-55	-20	-32	-123	7.95	54%		-34.8	1.02%	0	-1.8	29	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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