Trading Signals: BABA Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Tue. Oct. 13, 2020

Trading Signals: BABA Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Fri. Sep. 19, 2014 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

( Alibaba Group Holding Limited)
BABA latest price $308.7800 (0.8%) ($303.0300 - $310.0000) on Tue. Oct. 13, 2020.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   1.97% (three month average)
RSI   81
Latest Price   $308.7800(0.8%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   BABA advances 1.1% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   BABA advances 5.1% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Broad based sell-off for large cap. Value stock sell-off for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support BABA advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
KWEB(73%)    MCHI(70%)    FXI(67%)    EEM(59%)    VWO(59%)
Factors Impacting BABA price   BABA will decline at least -0.985% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-21%)    UUP(-19%)    VXX(-5%)    EDOC(-4%)    IGOV(-3%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.985% (StdDev 1.97%)
Hourly BBV 1.2 ()
Intraday Trend 0.8%

5 Day Moving Average   $302.38(2.12%)
10 Day Moving Average   $296.86(4.02%)
20 Day Moving Average   $286.04(7.95%)
To recent high   0%
To recent low   27.3%
Market Cap   $828.371b

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. engages in providing online and mobile marketplaces in retail and wholesale trade. It operates through the following business segments: Core Commerce; Cloud Computing; Digital Media and Entertainment; and Innovation Initiatives and Others. The Core Commerce segment comprises of platforms operating in retail and wholesale. The Cloud Computing segment consists of Alibaba Cloud, which offers elastic computing, database, storage and content delivery network, large scale computing, security, management and application, big data analytics, a machine learning platform, and other services provide for enterprises of different sizes across various industries. The Digital Media and Entertainment segment relates to the Youko Tudou and UC Browser business. The Innovation Initiatives and Others segment includes businesses such as AutoNavi, DingTalk, Tmall Genie, and others. The company was founded by Chung Tsai and Yun Ma on June 28, 1999 and is headquartered in Hangzhou, China.

$. BABA price fluctuates within 4.23% (three month std-dev: 1.97%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 50 Average positive next day return: 1.39%(50%) Average negative next day return: -1.5%(50%) Sample size 50 Average positive next three day return: 3.52%(50%) Average negative next three day return: -3.29%(50%) Sample size 50 Average positive next weekly return: 4.2%(46%) Average negative next weekly return: -4.13%(54%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20201113

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Oct_13_2020	254.23	286.04	296.86	302.38	302.76	306.15	308.78(0.8%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.5	161	80	144	213	10.97	58%	0.22	65.5	1.97%	1.2	1.9	81	2.1
2	Oct_12_2020	253.68	284.41	293.72	299.1	300.18	302.46	306.34(2.2%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.7	154	60	141	194	14.78	58%	0.43	67.1	2.03%	1.5	2	77	2.7
3	Oct_9_2020	252.59	282.71	290.7	295.49	296.57	299.37	299.74(-0.27%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.4	105	80	87	157	11.42	56%	0.35	60.8	2.02%	0.6	1.7	75	2.6
4	Oct_8_2020	251.7	281.26	287.91	293.17	293.67	297.9	300.54(1.36%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.8	154	110	148	170	15.13	63%	0.34	52	2.02%	1.2	2	77	1.7
5	Oct_7_2020	250.84	279.57	284.84	291.08	291.02	293.78	296.5(1.41%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	116	70	111	129	16.41	63%	0.32	36.6	2.28%	1.2	2	69	1

6	Oct_6_2020	250.03	278.33	282.45	290.57	289.91	289.44	292.39(1.43%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	54	-20	40	95	15.85	67%	0.31	24.3	2.29%	1.1	1.8	63	0.3
7	Oct_5_2020	249.25	277.17	280.68	287.48	289.51	288.26	288.27(0.03%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.1	14	-10	-1	57	17.85	67%	0.35	3.8	2.45%	-0.3	1.5	61	0.6
8	Oct_2_2020	248.38	276.74	279.2	285.03	286.65	290.39	288.17(-0.65%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.5	46	110	40	62	11.43	68%	0.36	-11.4	2.46%	-1	1.7	64	0.4
9	Oct_1_2020	247.5	276.35	277.58	281.61	283.56	290.76	290.05(-1.34%)	UD	OpenLong	75	1.3	212	200	240	126	16.29	68%	0.38	-27.9	2.49%	0.5	2.1	69	0.8
10	Sep_30_2020	246.57	276.47	276	277.55	277.67	282.91	293.98(6.16%)	UT	HoldLong	65	2.3	179	130	205	100	24.68	68%	0.39	-38.5	2.48%	1.6	2.4	76	0.8

11	Sep_29_2020	245.62	276.46	274.18	273.34	272.67	276.36	276.93(0.33%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	77	90	90	37	7.68	65%	0.3	-44.1	2.38%	0.6	0.1	55	0.9
12	Sep_28_2020	244.89	276.91	274.21	273.01	272.13	272.44	276.01(1.81%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	70	-0	80	38	8.69	65%	0.32	-37.9	2.38%	1.3	-0.1	58	0.7
13	Sep_25_2020	244.12	277.5	274	272.58	271.71	268.97	271.09(0.5%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-57	-80	-66	-28	11.54	63%	0.31	-26.1	2.41%	0.2	-0.8	39	0.6
14	Sep_24_2020	243.36	278.16	274.11	272.84	272.24	271.81	269.73(-1.18%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-65	-20	-73	-39	9.62	63%	0.31	-11.6	2.42%	-1.4	-1	37	0.3
15	Sep_23_2020	242.6	279.25	274.01	274.04	273.45	274.44	272.95(-0.85%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.1	22	20	34	-13	7.34	64%	0.33	8.8	2.42%	0.1	-0.7	29	0.1

16	Sep_22_2020	241.81	279.91	274.05	275.08	273.42	272.66	275.29(0.54%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0	-23	-40	-15	-48	7.96	64%	0.36	26.5	2.44%	1.2	-0.5	29	0.7
17	Sep_21_2020	240.95	280	273.55	275.61	274.84	272.46	273.82(0.52%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-60	-70	-55	-75	9.02	64%	0.34	38.7	2.44%	0.1	-0.7	41	0.8
18	Sep_18_2020	240.14	279.71	274.22	275.67	276.45	274.18	272.41(-1.2%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-69	-50	-63	-85	11.8	64%	0.3	43.5	2.45%	-0.7	-0.8	38	1.1
19	Sep_17_2020	239.43	279.15	275.17	275.51	276.54	277.23	275.72(-0.87%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	0	-31	30	-18	-70	8.01	64%	0.3	40.9	2.45%	-1	-0.3	45	1.1
20	Sep_16_2020	238.72	278.51	277	273.87	275.9	278.73	278.14(0.06%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.4	58	90	88	-34	9.58	66%	0.33	36.4	2.44%	0.7	-0	41	0.7

21	Sep_15_2020	237.94	277.67	278.77	272.87	273.81	275.85	277.96(1.41%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.4	46	60	73	-36	8.31	66%	0.32	36.2	2.46%	1.2	0	46	0.6
22	Sep_14_2020	237.18	276.72	279.61	271.29	272.85	273.08	274.1(0.92%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.2	14	20	36	-51	7.84	66%	0.3	33.9	2.45%	0.6	-0.2	51	0.6
23	Sep_11_2020	236.47	275.85	281.09	272.74	271.75	271.76	271.61(1.52%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-47	-10	-43	-59	9.4	62%	0.29	35.6	2.46%	-0.8	-0.3	56	0.3
24	Sep_10_2020	235.79	275.09	282.44	274.92	273.3	272.62	267.55(-2.05%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-35	-40	-38	-27	11.14	62%	0.25	34.6	2.5%	-2.3	-0.5	59	-0.6
25	Sep_9_2020	235.2	274.61	284.98	280.63	276.61	271.73	273.15(1.16%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-97	-170	-126	-11	9.42	62%		41.9	2.49%	0.1	-0.1	60	-0.4
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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