Trading Signals: BABA Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Tue. Mar. 5, 2019

Trading Signals: BABA Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Fri. Sep. 19, 2014 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

( Alibaba Group Holding Limited)
BABA latest price $185.0000 (-1.2%) ($185.0000 - $188.0800) on Tue. Mar. 5, 2019.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   2.17% (three month average)
RSI   77
Latest Price   $185.0000(-1.2%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   BABA advances 0.2% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   BABA advances 4.7% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Value stock sell-off for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support BABA advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
KWEB(75%)    MCHI(73%)    FXI(68%)    EEM(58%)    VWO(58%)
Factors Impacting BABA price   BABA will decline at least -1.085% in a week (0% probabilities).
VXX(-8%)    TLT(-7%)    XHB(-6%)    FIVG(-6%)    VIXM(-5%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -1.085% (StdDev 2.17%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend -1%

5 Day Moving Average   $184.75(0.14%)
10 Day Moving Average   $181.28(2.05%)
20 Day Moving Average   $175.29(5.54%)
To recent high   -1.2%
To recent low   41.7%
Market Cap   $496.304b

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. engages in providing online and mobile marketplaces in retail and wholesale trade. It operates through the following business segments: Core Commerce; Cloud Computing; Digital Media and Entertainment; and Innovation Initiatives and Others. The Core Commerce segment comprises of platforms operating in retail and wholesale. The Cloud Computing segment consists of Alibaba Cloud, which offers elastic computing, database, storage and content delivery network, large scale computing, security, management and application, big data analytics, a machine learning platform, and other services provide for enterprises of different sizes across various industries. The Digital Media and Entertainment segment relates to the Youko Tudou and UC Browser business. The Innovation Initiatives and Others segment includes businesses such as AutoNavi, DingTalk, Tmall Genie, and others. The company was founded by Chung Tsai and Yun Ma on June 28, 1999 and is headquartered in Hangzhou, China.

$. BABA price fluctuates within 4.19% (three month std-dev: 2.17%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 50 Average positive next day return: 0.95%(58%) Average negative next day return: -1.25%(42%) Sample size 50 Average positive next three day return: 1.54%(56%) Average negative next three day return: -1.78%(44%) Sample size 50 Average positive next weekly return: 2.6%(58%) Average negative next weekly return: -2.11%(42%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20190405

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Mar_5_2019	154.44	175.29	181.28	184.75	185.07	186.26	185(-1.2%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0	57	50	29	140	11.51	71%	0.28	69.7	2.17%	0	1.3	77	0.9
2	Mar_4_2019	154.01	174.36	179.86	184.46	184.26	185.54	187.25(1.83%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.4	83	50	58	157	14.76	67%	0.27	76.2	2.18%	0	1.8	83	1.2
3	Mar_1_2019	153.59	173.35	177.79	183.66	183.14	183.88	183.88(0.46%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0	62	20	36	141	14.35	67%	0.29	86.6	2.21%	0	1.6	81	1.8
4	Feb_28_2019	153.15	172.54	176.25	182.26	182.5	182.99	183.03(-0.84%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	74	20	52	140	12.37	68%	0.31	96.9	2.23%	0	1.7	81	0.8
5	Feb_27_2019	152.67	171.7	174.86	179.99	180.46	182.4	184.58(0.57%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	78	80	63	123	16.74	68%	0.26	105.7	2.24%	0	2.2	69	0.9

6	Feb_26_2019	152.28	170.31	173.21	177.22	177.47	182	183.54(0.16%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.1	125	180	126	121	13.87	70%	0.22	96.7	2.24%	0	2.3	67	1
7	Feb_25_2019	151.94	169.06	171.52	174.54	174.84	178.53	183.25(3.58%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.6	170	150	185	123	22.83	70%	0.2	91.7	2.28%	0	2.7	73	1.2
8	Feb_22_2019	151.64	167.82	169.83	171.12	171.46	172.94	176.92(3.06%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.3	68	70	74	49	16.18	69%	0.15	89.1	2.24%	0	2	65	1.6
9	Feb_21_2019	151.42	166.78	168.77	169.42	169.56	171.16	171.66(0.56%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	35	70	40	18	8.43	67%	0.07	77.5	2.23%	0	1	56	1.3
10	Feb_20_2019	151.32	165.84	168.7	168.96	168.74	169.98	170.71(0.31%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	45	50	51	25	12.45	67%	0.07	66	2.25%	0	0.9	58	1.6

11	Feb_19_2019	151.21	164.96	168.75	168.56	168.39	167.97	170.18(2.43%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	15	-20	11	27	12.98	63%	-0.04	60.3	2.27%	0	0.8	73	1
12	Feb_15_2019	151.27	164.31	168.41	168.02	168.55	167.51	166.15(-1.32%)	CR	SmallShort	-20	-0.3	-22	-30	-34	16	12.1	64%	0	62.3	2.28%	0	0.3	64	1.5
13	Feb_14_2019	151.27	163.83	168.62	168.26	168.87	168.81	168.38(-0.6%)	UD	OpenLong	65	0	4	10	-9	41	8.72	64%	0.02	65.1	2.32%	0	0.7	68	1
14	Feb_13_2019	151.24	163.17	168.64	167.98	168.34	169.6	169.4(0.41%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	31	60	19	68	8.66	66%	0.04	65.1	2.33%	0	0.9	73	1.3
15	Feb_12_2019	151.18	162.27	168.39	168.4	167.76	168.94	168.71(0.75%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0	46	40	29	98	8.59	66%	0.04	67.5	2.36%	0	0.9	76	1.5

16	Feb_11_2019	151.12	161.32	167.32	169.02	168.33	167.08	167.45(0.05%)	UT	OpenLong	75	-0.2	31	-60	6	104	7.26	66%	0.01	71.9	2.37%	0	0.8	75	1.3
17	Feb_8_2019	151.1	160.53	166.54	168.87	168.72	166.58	167.36(0.24%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.2	-30	-90	-66	78	8.33	63%	0.01	78.4	2.4%	0	0.9	64	1.3
18	Feb_7_2019	151.08	159.74	165.78	169	168.94	169.57	166.96(-2.66%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.3	3	30	-30	101	11.91	65%	0.03	93.5	2.42%	0	1	65	1.1
19	Feb_6_2019	151.03	158.99	164.75	169.3	169.12	170.85	171.52(-0.18%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	88	70	68	147	11.27	67%	0.1	106.7	2.43%	0	1.7	73	1.7
20	Feb_5_2019	150.88	157.74	162.84	168.36	168.2	168.31	171.83(3.08%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.5	73	0	52	137	12.8	67%	0.09	113.7	2.44%	0	2	76	1.8

21	Feb_4_2019	150.75	156.29	160.86	165.37	166.71	167.4	166.7(-0.76%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	41	50	20	105	7.38	66%	0.02	107.7	2.43%	0	1.5	75	1.9
22	Feb_1_2019	150.72	154.97	159.85	163.82	164.59	168.09	167.97(-0.31%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.6	94	160	83	127	10.77	69%	0.01	97.7	2.45%	0	1.8	72	1.4
23	Jan_31_2019	150.7	153.15	158.59	162.06	162.01	166.02	168.49(1%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	136	170	135	137	21.22	71%	0.05	76	2.56%	0	1.8	72	1.4
24	Jan_30_2019	150.63	151.55	157.13	159.54	159.78	161.08	166.82(6.34%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	105	60	104	107	37	71%	0.07	71.6	2.61%	0	1.9	70	1.1
25	Jan_29_2019	150.53	150.04	155.48	156.58	157.16	157.99	156.88(-1.28%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0	21	50	10	54	18.35	62%		70.1	2.51%	0	0.9	69	0.5
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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