Trading Signals: BABA Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Thu. Dec. 21, 2017

Trading Signals: BABA Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Fri. Sep. 19, 2014 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

( Alibaba Group Holding Limited)
BABA latest price $175.3200 (1.55%) ($172.6500 - $176.2500) on Thu. Dec. 21, 2017.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   1.69% (three month average)
RSI   51
Latest Price   $175.3200(1.55%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   BABA advances 0.4% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   BABA advances 0.2% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Value stock rally for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support BABA advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
KWEB(76%)    MCHI(74%)    FXI(69%)    EEM(60%)    VWO(60%)
Factors Impacting BABA price   BABA will decline at least -0.845% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-12%)    TLT(-8%)    UUP(-6%)    SHY(-3%)    IGOV(-2%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.845% (StdDev 1.69%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 1.5%

1 - 5 Day Possible Target   $170.75(-2.61%)
Resistance Level   $176.22
5 Day Moving Average   $173.23(1.21%)
10 Day Moving Average   $174.49(0.48%)
20 Day Moving Average   $176.22(-0.51%)
To recent high   -8.3%
To recent low   5%
Market Cap   $470.335b

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. engages in providing online and mobile marketplaces in retail and wholesale trade. It operates through the following business segments: Core Commerce; Cloud Computing; Digital Media and Entertainment; and Innovation Initiatives and Others. The Core Commerce segment comprises of platforms operating in retail and wholesale. The Cloud Computing segment consists of Alibaba Cloud, which offers elastic computing, database, storage and content delivery network, large scale computing, security, management and application, big data analytics, a machine learning platform, and other services provide for enterprises of different sizes across various industries. The Digital Media and Entertainment segment relates to the Youko Tudou and UC Browser business. The Innovation Initiatives and Others segment includes businesses such as AutoNavi, DingTalk, Tmall Genie, and others. The company was founded by Chung Tsai and Yun Ma on June 28, 1999 and is headquartered in Hangzhou, China.

$. BABA price fluctuates within 3.33% (three month std-dev: 1.69%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 3 Average positive next day return: 4.1%(67%) Average negative next day return: -0.36%(33%) Sample size 3 Average positive next three day return: 4.22%(67%) Average negative next three day return: -0.21%(33%) Sample size 3 Average positive next weekly return: 6.25%(67%) Average negative next weekly return: -0.44%(33%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20180121

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Dec_21_2017	175.04	176.22	174.49	173.23	172.93	173.14	175.32(1.55%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	45	0	50	29	14.81	49%	0.14	-59.2	1.69%	0	-0.2	51	INF
2	Dec_20_2017	174.8	176.88	174.4	172.52	172.5	171.86	172.64(0.79%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0	-28	-30	-31	-17	17.12	49%	0.1	-51.1	1.68%	0	-0.6	44	INF
3	Dec_19_2017	174.62	177.75	174.44	173.28	172.48	172.73	171.28(-1.21%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-32	-0	-35	-23	23.94	49%	0.1	-39.1	1.68%	0	-0.9	38	INF
4	Dec_18_2017	174.45	178.57	174.3	173.96	173.53	173.13	173.37(-0.1%)	DT	HoldShort	-50	-0.1	-2	-20	8	-31	17.02	51%	0.09	-34.3	1.68%	0	-0.7	33	INF
5	Dec_15_2017	174.29	179.16	173.98	175.14	174.13	172.23	173.55(1.05%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-87	-90	-86	-89	41.36	51%	0.11	-30.9	1.69%	0	-0.8	32	INF

6	Dec_14_2017	174.1	179.76	174.08	175.95	175.84	173.94	171.75(-2.67%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-96	-80	-91	-112	32.83	51%	0.09	-28.2	1.69%	0	-1.1	27	INF
7	Dec_13_2017	173.94	180.29	174.61	176.5	177.26	176.03	176.47(1.05%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0	-56	-40	-38	-111	18.65	55%	0.14	-30.1	1.66%	0	-0.5	32	INF
8	Dec_12_2017	173.69	180.57	174.88	175.73	176.8	177.74	174.64(-2.59%)	DT	HoldShort	-50	-0.2	-23	60	10	-120	22.66	55%	0.13	-38	1.68%	0	-0.9	29	INF
9	Dec_11_2017	173.47	181.08	175.97	174.59	175.4	178.5	179.29(0.94%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.7	88	140	145	-85	15.63	60%	0.16	-45.7	1.65%	0	-0.3	38	INF
10	Dec_8_2017	173.19	181.42	176.69	172.65	172.53	175.87	177.62(1.81%)	RB	SmallLong	20	0.7	72	130	131	-106	23.54	60%	0.15	-51.2	1.68%	0	-0.6	41	INF

11	Dec_7_2017	172.93	181.81	177.9	172.05	171.4	172.29	174.47(1.07%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.4	29	30	81	-126	15.7	59%	0.12	-54.1	1.67%	0	-1.1	36	INF
12	Dec_6_2017	172.72	182.4	179.37	172.57	171.85	169.19	172.63(2.17%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0	-107	-120	-84	-174	23.9	59%	0.11	-54.3	1.68%	0	-1.5	41	INF
13	Dec_5_2017	172.53	183.22	181.17	174.03	173.77	170.51	168.96(-0.37%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.8	-202	-140	-204	-194	31.61	57%	0.1	-48.7	1.66%	0	-2.3	35	INF
14	Dec_4_2017	172.35	184.23	183.17	177.57	177.06	174.51	169.58(-2.88%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.5	-160	-110	-167	-137	35.9	57%	0.1	-34.6	1.66%	0	-2.7	32	INF
15	Dec_1_2017	172.17	185	184.88	181.26	180.72	177.03	174.61(-1.39%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.6	-148	-150	-164	-100	26.78	61%	0.15	-13.5	1.63%	0	-2.4	35	INF

16	Nov_30_2017	171.92	185.57	186.08	184.58	184.1	179.62	177.08(-1.57%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-2.1	-188	-180	-222	-87	25.85	62%	0.17	28.4	1.61%	0	-2.4	40	INF
17	Nov_29_2017	171.63	186.07	186.68	187.13	187.11	184.41	179.91(-3.63%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-2.5	-153	-100	-187	-52	40.2	62%	0.2	83.5	1.62%	0	-2.1	42	INF
18	Nov_28_2017	171.29	186.36	187	189.33	189.51	188.58	186.69(-0.71%)	N/A	N/A	0	-1	-37	-30	-54	16	13.38	67%	0.25	140	1.55%	0	0.1	46	INF
19	Nov_27_2017	170.86	186.13	186.81	189.59	190.16	189.81	188.03(-1.65%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.6	0	-0	-10	31	14.95	67%	0.28	148.7	1.57%	0	0.7	50	INF
20	Nov_24_2017	170.39	185.57	186.63	189.01	189.83	190.44	191.19(0.71%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	32	40	28	45	9.89	70%	0.44	114.4	1.58%	0	1.6	64	INF

21	Nov_22_2017	169.65	184.58	185.98	187.86	188.66	190.51	189.84(-0.56%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.4	75	80	81	55	14.42	72%	0.12	62.2	1.57%	0	1	59	INF
22	Nov_21_2017	169.45	183.64	185.54	186.19	187.14	189.23	190.9(1.54%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	117	90	137	58	19.64	72%	0.3	43.9	1.61%	0	1.3	57	INF
23	Nov_20_2017	168.94	182.79	185.2	184.37	184.5	186.8	188(1.55%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	69	90	84	23	25.99	72%	0.28	33.4	1.6%	0	0.9	56	INF
24	Nov_17_2017	168.47	182.06	185.13	183.67	183.22	185.04	185.13(-0.16%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	71	60	85	27	13.42	74%	0.27	25.6	1.61%	0	0.5	58	INF
25	Nov_16_2017	168.02	181.67	184.96	183.93	183.28	182.2	185.43(2.18%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	16	-50	16	14	18.39	74%		26.3	1.64%	0	0.7	67	INF
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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