Trading Signals: BABA Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Mon. Mar. 20, 2017

Trading Signals: BABA Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Fri. Sep. 19, 2014 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

( Alibaba Group Holding Limited)
BABA latest price $107.2500 (1.55%) ($105.9400 - $108.2000) on Mon. Mar. 20, 2017.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   1.26% (three month average)
RSI   68
Latest Price   $107.2500(1.55%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   BABA advances 0.4% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   BABA advances 1.1% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Value stocks sell-off for large cap. Value stock sell-off for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support BABA advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
KWEB(75%)    MCHI(74%)    FXI(68%)    EEM(60%)    VWO(59%)
Factors Impacting BABA price   BABA will decline at least -0.63% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-13%)    TLT(-8%)    UUP(-5%)    IPO(-4%)    SHY(-3%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.63% (StdDev 1.26%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 1%

5 Day Moving Average   $105.29(1.86%)
10 Day Moving Average   $104.49(2.64%)
20 Day Moving Average   $103.81(3.31%)
To recent high   0%
To recent low   23.6%
Market Cap   $287.722b

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. engages in providing online and mobile marketplaces in retail and wholesale trade. It operates through the following business segments: Core Commerce; Cloud Computing; Digital Media and Entertainment; and Innovation Initiatives and Others. The Core Commerce segment comprises of platforms operating in retail and wholesale. The Cloud Computing segment consists of Alibaba Cloud, which offers elastic computing, database, storage and content delivery network, large scale computing, security, management and application, big data analytics, a machine learning platform, and other services provide for enterprises of different sizes across various industries. The Digital Media and Entertainment segment relates to the Youko Tudou and UC Browser business. The Innovation Initiatives and Others segment includes businesses such as AutoNavi, DingTalk, Tmall Genie, and others. The company was founded by Chung Tsai and Yun Ma on June 28, 1999 and is headquartered in Hangzhou, China.

$. BABA price fluctuates within 1.22% (three month std-dev: 1.26%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 14 Average positive next day return: 1.61%(57%) Average negative next day return: -0.65%(43%) Sample size 14 Average positive next three day return: 1.65%(64%) Average negative next three day return: -1.12%(36%) Sample size 14 Average positive next weekly return: 1.59%(64%) Average negative next weekly return: -1.51%(36%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

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i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Mar_20_2017	97.08	103.81	104.49	105.29	105.36	106.22	107.25(1.55%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.5	58	60	53	73	12.45	83%	0.06	76.2	1.26%	0	2.7	68	INF
2	Mar_17_2017	97.02	103.47	103.98	104.87	104.8	105.37	105.61(-0.02%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.6	49	40	47	56	8.78	82%	0.03	65.8	1.25%	0	1.8	59	INF
3	Mar_16_2017	96.99	103.24	103.73	104.43	104.57	104.5	105.63(1.87%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1	32	-0	29	39	12.45	82%	0.03	45.7	1.26%	0	2	62	INF
4	Mar_15_2017	96.96	103.03	103.47	103.95	104.09	104.23	103.69(-0.54%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.2	-5	10	-11	15	11.7	75%	-0.01	28.7	1.24%	0	0.6	57	INF
5	Mar_14_2017	96.97	102.92	103.5	103.86	103.94	104.64	104.25(-0.88%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	39	50	41	32	7.75	75%	0	28.8	1.29%	0	1.2	49	INF

6	Mar_13_2017	96.97	102.86	103.36	103.53	103.56	103.95	105.18(1.73%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.5	44	30	48	30	16.12	75%	0.01	31.8	1.29%	0	2.1	62	INF
7	Mar_10_2017	96.96	102.71	103.18	102.96	103.06	103.23	103.39(0.15%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	8	10	6	12	4.12	73%	0	29	1.28%	0	0.7	64	INF
8	Mar_9_2017	96.96	102.71	103.13	102.94	102.89	103.18	103.24(0.02%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	16	20	13	23	4.52	73%	-0.01	40.9	1.29%	0	0.6	61	INF
9	Mar_8_2017	96.97	102.7	103.06	102.93	102.85	102.88	103.22(0.57%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	11	-0	6	24	7.07	73%	0	50	1.29%	0	0.5	57	INF
10	Mar_7_2017	96.97	102.59	103.14	103.1	102.95	102.6	102.63(0.31%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.5	-5	-30	-17	31	4.99	73%	0	49.5	1.3%	0	0	55	INF

11	Mar_6_2017	96.97	102.51	103.11	103.15	103.3	102.82	102.31(-0.97%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.8	-13	-30	-26	25	6.29	73%	0	47.7	1.3%	0	-0.2	47	INF
12	Mar_3_2017	96.97	102.43	102.97	103.41	103.3	103.31	103.31(0.12%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.1	-6	-10	-17	29	6.32	73%	0.01	44.8	1.29%	0	0.7	54	INF
13	Mar_2_2017	96.96	102.31	102.73	103.34	103.45	103.78	103.19(-0.82%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	21	30	18	31	7.98	73%	0	35.3	1.3%	0	0.7	49	INF
14	Mar_1_2017	96.96	102.23	102.57	103.19	103.1	103.59	104.04(1.11%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	21	30	21	21	10.33	64%	-0.01	22.9	1.29%	0	1.5	50	INF
15	Feb_28_2017	96.97	102.08	102.57	103.22	102.97	103.12	102.9(-0.68%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.3	20	0	19	23	8.02	64%	-0.06	25	1.41%	0	0.7	58	INF

16	Feb_27_2017	97.03	101.99	102.32	103.07	103.06	102.6	103.6(0.63%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	13	-30	9	24	6.87	64%	-0.02	32.1	1.41%	0	1.4	60	INF
17	Feb_24_2017	97.05	101.9	102.18	102.45	102.71	102.81	102.95(0.48%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.5	-7	10	-12	9	7.36	64%	-0.05	43.4	1.41%	0	1	60	INF
18	Feb_23_2017	97.1	101.88	102.2	102.02	102.38	103.52	102.46(-1.67%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.4	43	90	46	32	10.1	64%	-0.04	60	1.42%	0	0.5	57	INF
19	Feb_22_2017	97.14	101.95	102.3	101.84	101.84	102.61	104.2(2.04%)	UT	OpenLong	75	2	62	50	68	44	15.78	67%	-0.02	82.6	1.4%	0	1.9	59	INF
20	Feb_21_2017	97.16	101.8	101.95	101.32	101.31	101.23	102.12(1.59%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.8	0	-10	-1	3	8.19	65%	-0.12	102.9	1.38%	0	0.3	54	INF

21	Feb_17_2017	97.28	101.63	101.84	101.52	101.48	101.07	100.52(-0.3%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-24	-30	-30	-4	8.26	63%	-0.05	72.2	1.36%	0	-0.6	49	INF
22	Feb_16_2017	97.33	101.44	101.86	101.88	102.08	101.39	100.82(-0.72%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-27	-40	-35	-3	7.46	66%	-0.08	67.2	1.37%	0	-0.3	45	INF
23	Feb_15_2017	97.41	101.24	101.88	102.39	102.53	101.89	101.55(-0.04%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-37	-40	-48	-4	12.38	66%	-0.07	64.6	1.38%	0	0.1	44	INF
24	Feb_14_2017	97.48	100.99	101.89	102.79	103.01	102.78	101.59(-1.46%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.5	-8	-10	-14	10	10.24	59%	-0.05	62.9	1.39%	0	0.2	38	INF
25	Feb_13_2017	97.53	100.73	101.87	102.64	103.07	103.18	103.1(0.72%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	16	20	15	18	9.73	62%		63.3	1.45%	0	0.9	56	INF
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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