Trading Signals: BABA Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Fri. Aug. 12, 2016

Trading Signals: BABA Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Fri. Sep. 19, 2014 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

( Alibaba Group Holding Limited)
BABA latest price $98.2500 (7.06%) ($92.9100 - $98.3500) on Fri. Aug. 12, 2016.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   2.19% (three month average)
RSI   87
Latest Price   $98.2500(7.06%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   BABA advances 3.2% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   BABA advances 4.1% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support BABA advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
KWEB(75%)    MCHI(74%)    FXI(67%)    EEM(59%)    VWO(59%)
Factors Impacting BABA price   BABA will decline at least -1.095% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-13%)    TLT(-7%)    UUP(-6%)    SHY(-2%)    IPO(-2%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -1.095% (StdDev 2.19%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 5.7%

5 Day Moving Average   $89.52(9.75%)
10 Day Moving Average   $87.1(12.8%)
20 Day Moving Average   $85.29(15.2%)
To recent high   0%
To recent low   32.4%
Market Cap   $263.577b

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. engages in providing online and mobile marketplaces in retail and wholesale trade. It operates through the following business segments: Core Commerce; Cloud Computing; Digital Media and Entertainment; and Innovation Initiatives and Others. The Core Commerce segment comprises of platforms operating in retail and wholesale. The Cloud Computing segment consists of Alibaba Cloud, which offers elastic computing, database, storage and content delivery network, large scale computing, security, management and application, big data analytics, a machine learning platform, and other services provide for enterprises of different sizes across various industries. The Digital Media and Entertainment segment relates to the Youko Tudou and UC Browser business. The Innovation Initiatives and Others segment includes businesses such as AutoNavi, DingTalk, Tmall Genie, and others. The company was founded by Chung Tsai and Yun Ma on June 28, 1999 and is headquartered in Hangzhou, China.

$. BABA price fluctuates within 4.24% (three month std-dev: 2.19%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 2 Average positive next day return: 4.32%(50%) Average negative next day return: -5.84%(50%) Sample size 2 Average positive next three day return: 8.64%(50%) Average negative next three day return: -3.63%(50%) Sample size 2 Average positive next weekly return: 17.92%(50%) Average negative next weekly return: -8.36%(50%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20160912

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Aug_12_2016	79.86	85.29	87.1	89.52	89.89	93.81	98.25(7.06%)	UT	HoldLong	65	2.4	170	320	167	178	71.97	64%	0.29	60.4	2.19%	0	3.6	87	INF
2	Aug_11_2016	79.63	84.38	85.42	86.79	87.19	89.38	91.77(5.08%)	UT	OpenLong	75	2.3	124	190	127	113	54.17	59%	0.2	70.9	2.03%	0	3.5	73	INF
3	Aug_10_2016	79.47	83.85	84.5	85.38	85.39	85.98	87.33(2.45%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.3	46	50	44	51	28.2	56%	0.11	85.1	1.93%	0	2.4	64	INF
4	Aug_9_2016	79.38	83.51	84.06	84.65	84.77	85	85.24(0.28%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	17	20	15	21	15.35	54%	0.09	90.1	1.91%	0	1.4	53	INF
5	Aug_8_2016	79.31	83.33	83.88	84.36	84.35	84.8	85(0.48%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	13	40	12	17	11.53	54%	0.11	95.3	1.91%	0	1.3	62	INF

6	Aug_5_2016	79.22	83.15	83.69	84.23	84.1	84.54	84.59(-0.19%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	26	30	27	22	9.4	57%	0.14	85.3	1.91%	0	1	61	INF
7	Aug_4_2016	79.11	82.89	83.66	83.81	83.82	83.89	84.75(1.29%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	16	10	15	19	10.73	57%	0.14	69.9	1.97%	0	1.2	68	INF
8	Aug_3_2016	79	82.62	83.59	83.48	83.44	83.67	83.67(-0.16%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	5	20	1	15	5.37	57%	0.15	63	1.97%	0	0.6	61	INF
9	Aug_2_2016	78.88	82.39	83.65	83.37	83.33	83.74	83.8(-0.64%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	20	30	16	32	7.69	57%	0.14	64.2	1.97%	0	0.8	67	INF
10	Aug_1_2016	78.77	82.15	83.56	83.33	83.2	83.22	84.34(2.26%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	18	-0	12	34	13.4	57%	0.13	76.1	1.97%	0	1.2	62	INF

11	Jul_29_2016	78.67	81.92	83.39	83.1	83.09	82.93	82.48(-0.77%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.3	-6	-10	-15	23	8.71	55%	0.14	81.5	1.97%	0	0.3	57	INF
12	Jul_28_2016	78.56	81.78	83.3	83.5	83.33	83.19	83.12(0.02%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.2	4	-20	-9	43	7.48	55%	0.14	87.2	1.96%	0	0.7	70	INF
13	Jul_27_2016	78.45	81.53	83.18	83.71	83.62	83.26	83.1(-0.59%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.3	5	-30	-12	55	11.63	55%	0.15	84.4	1.98%	0	0.8	67	INF
14	Jul_26_2016	78.33	81.21	82.95	83.97	83.88	83.47	83.59(0.48%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.2	7	-40	-14	68	7.71	55%	0.14	74.7	1.98%	0	1	72	INF
15	Jul_25_2016	78.22	80.76	82.77	83.81	84.06	83.98	83.19(-1.54%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.2	18	0	-3	80	13.19	55%	0.14	56.4	1.98%	0	0.9	69	INF

16	Jul_22_2016	78.11	80.43	82.6	83.7	83.81	84.29	84.49(0.37%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	40	40	21	95	5.99	55%	0.18	52.8	1.98%	0	1.5	70	INF
17	Jul_21_2016	77.97	80.14	82.06	83.05	83.18	84.15	84.18(-0.28%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.4	50	90	37	88	10.19	55%	0.17	51.1	1.98%	0	1.6	70	INF
18	Jul_20_2016	77.84	79.85	81.58	82.57	82.48	83.33	84.42(1.99%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	57	70	47	88	13.99	57%	0.18	50.5	1.98%	0	1.9	75	INF
19	Jul_19_2016	77.7	79.54	80.99	81.8	81.88	82.2	82.77(0.15%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.5	35	30	23	72	9.8	55%	0.18	48.3	1.99%	0	1.5	77	INF
20	Jul_18_2016	77.56	79.3	80.61	81.59	81.49	81.64	82.65(1.72%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.5	23	10	4	78	12.11	55%	0.21	54.9	1.99%	0	1.7	81	INF

21	Jul_15_2016	77.4	79	80.29	81.35	81.57	81.56	81.25(-0.6%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	35	10	16	92	8.92	55%	0.19	57.9	1.98%	0	1.2	67	INF
22	Jul_14_2016	77.25	78.85	80.12	80.9	81.28	81.33	81.74(1.45%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	29	20	11	84	9.36	55%	0.19	56	1.98%	0	1.6	56	INF
23	Jul_13_2016	77.1	78.66	79.75	80.42	80.57	81.57	80.57(-1.43%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	35	90	21	77	10.74	57%	0.18	54.6	1.97%	0	1.1	55	INF
24	Jul_12_2016	76.96	78.52	79.34	80.04	80.06	81.23	81.74(0.34%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1	67	100	63	79	15.29	57%	0.17	50	1.98%	0	2	58	INF
25	Jul_11_2016	76.83	78.2	78.61	79.48	79.17	79.56	81.46(3.13%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.2	30	20	27	40	17.42	57%		35.5	1.98%	0	2.1	59	INF
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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