Trading Signals: BABA Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Thu. Jun. 9, 2016

Trading Signals: BABA Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Fri. Sep. 19, 2014 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

( Alibaba Group Holding Limited)
BABA latest price $77.5600 (-0.1%) ($76.7800 - $78.0700) on Thu. Jun. 9, 2016.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   1.89% (three month average)
RSI   50
Latest Price   $77.5600(-0.1%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   BABA advances 0.1% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   BABA declines -0.7% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Value stocks sell-off for large cap. Broad based sell-off for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support BABA advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
KWEB(75%)    MCHI(74%)    FXI(67%)    EEM(59%)    VWO(58%)
Factors Impacting BABA price   BABA will decline at least -0.945% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-14%)    TLT(-7%)    UUP(-6%)    SHY(-2%)    IPO(-2%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.945% (StdDev 1.89%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 0.2%

1 - 5 Day Possible Target   $74.34(-4.15%)
Resistance Level   $78.47
5 Day Moving Average   $77.54(0.03%)
10 Day Moving Average   $78.25(-0.88%)
20 Day Moving Average   $78.47(-1.16%)
To recent high   -5.4%
To recent low   7.8%
Market Cap   $208.072b

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. engages in providing online and mobile marketplaces in retail and wholesale trade. It operates through the following business segments: Core Commerce; Cloud Computing; Digital Media and Entertainment; and Innovation Initiatives and Others. The Core Commerce segment comprises of platforms operating in retail and wholesale. The Cloud Computing segment consists of Alibaba Cloud, which offers elastic computing, database, storage and content delivery network, large scale computing, security, management and application, big data analytics, a machine learning platform, and other services provide for enterprises of different sizes across various industries. The Digital Media and Entertainment segment relates to the Youko Tudou and UC Browser business. The Innovation Initiatives and Others segment includes businesses such as AutoNavi, DingTalk, Tmall Genie, and others. The company was founded by Chung Tsai and Yun Ma on June 28, 1999 and is headquartered in Hangzhou, China.

$. BABA price fluctuates within 1.99% (three month std-dev: 1.89%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 1 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: -1.25%(100%) Sample size 1 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: -0.63%(100%) Sample size 1 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: -1.25%(100%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20160709

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Jun_9_2016	74.18	78.47	78.25	77.54	77.7	77.67	77.56(-0.1%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	0	-8	0	-3	-23	8.99	63%	0.12	-30.2	1.89%	0	-0.6	50	INF
2	Jun_8_2016	74.09	78.58	78.09	77.49	77.55	77.91	77.64(-0.26%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.1	-1	30	10	-32	11.61	63%	0.11	-20	1.9%	0	-0.6	48	INF
3	Jun_7_2016	74.01	78.68	78.41	77.3	77.35	77.74	77.84(-0.28%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.3	-7	40	2	-33	12.88	63%	0.04	-13	1.93%	0	-0.5	48	INF
4	Jun_6_2016	73.98	78.76	78.53	78.13	77.4	77.2	78.06(1.88%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0	-18	-50	-16	-24	19.17	63%	0.12	9.6	1.93%	0	-0.4	48	INF
5	Jun_3_2016	73.89	78.82	78.61	78.72	78.34	76.95	76.62(-0.88%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.4	-27	-140	-32	-12	23.69	63%	0.07	26.9	1.93%	0	-1.4	51	INF

6	Jun_2_2016	73.84	78.94	78.81	79.06	79.05	77.6	77.3(0.8%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-1.2	-44	-130	-53	-16	45.38	63%	0.09	43	1.93%	0	-1.1	48	INF
7	Jun_1_2016	73.77	78.89	78.99	78.72	79.23	79.72	76.69(-6.48%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.3	-24	60	-27	-16	62.53	65%	0.05	29.5	1.93%	0	-1.4	45	INF
8	May_31_2016	73.73	78.88	79.29	79.61	78.91	80.51	82(1.27%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.5	58	120	64	40	78.86	74%	0.2	36.1	1.76%	0	1.9	55	INF
9	May_27_2016	73.58	78.61	78.98	79.01	78.62	78.73	80.97(3.34%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.3	42	-10	49	19	24.55	78%	0.12	21.3	1.79%	0	1.5	54	INF
10	May_26_2016	73.49	78.4	78.59	78.57	78.45	77.31	78.35(3.65%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-38	-110	-39	-34	26.97	76%	0.01	5.2	1.77%	0	-0	48	INF

11	May_25_2016	73.48	78.31	78.67	78.56	78.74	78.51	75.59(-6.82%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-2	-46	-10	-49	-38	49.69	73%	-0.04	-7.8	1.71%	0	-1.8	41	INF
12	May_24_2016	73.51	78.44	79.12	79.25	79.14	79.59	81.12(2.68%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.3	32	40	33	30	16.71	91%	0.05	-6.2	1.47%	0	1.9	72	INF
13	May_23_2016	73.47	78.29	78.95	78.9	78.86	78.96	79(0.27%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.1	11	10	5	27	7.19	81%	0.08	-18.1	1.44%	0	0.6	67	INF
14	May_20_2016	73.41	78.28	78.98	78.96	79.02	78.69	78.79(0.6%)	UT	OpenLong	75	-0.1	13	-30	4	41	11.04	81%	-0.04	-17	1.5%	0	0.4	62	INF
15	May_19_2016	73.44	78.32	79.03	78.63	78.96	78.76	78.32(-0.9%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.2	-8	-10	-21	33	8.32	81%	-0.04	-19.8	1.51%	0	0	58	INF

16	May_18_2016	73.47	78.43	79.09	78.8	78.86	79.36	79.03(-0.4%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	16	50	2	59	9.09	81%	-0.05	-11.4	1.5%	0	0.4	64	INF
17	May_17_2016	73.51	78.43	78.8	78.95	78.96	79.17	79.35(0.08%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	35	20	25	66	10.97	81%	-0.04	-4.1	1.5%	0	0.5	57	INF
18	May_16_2016	73.54	78.52	78.48	79.03	78.99	78.35	79.29(2.76%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.2	-5	-60	-19	39	11.66	86%	0.08	1.5	1.5%	0	0.5	52	INF
19	May_13_2016	73.48	78.5	78.48	79.05	79.24	78.76	77.16(-2.53%)	N/A	N/A	0	-1.3	-22	-40	-35	18	10.08	85%	-0.1	6.3	1.82%	0	-0.9	43	INF
20	May_12_2016	73.55	78.59	78.22	79.46	79.56	79.63	79.16(-0.8%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.2	9	10	1	31	8.79	91%	-0.08	18.4	1.8%	0	0.4	45	INF

21	May_11_2016	73.61	78.61	77.95	79.39	79.41	79.72	79.8(0.1%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	21	30	21	21	11.07	91%	-0.07	23	1.79%	0	0.8	42	INF
22	May_10_2016	73.66	78.59	77.71	78.6	79.24	79.48	79.72(0.39%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.8	28	50	39	-4	9.32	91%	-0.05	11.6	1.81%	0	0.8	40	INF
23	May_9_2016	73.7	78.49	77.57	77.83	78.22	79.09	79.41(0.27%)	N/A	N/A	0	1.1	11	90	25	-31	11.8	91%	-0.04	-1.1	1.82%	0	0.6	49	INF
24	May_6_2016	73.73	78.41	77.47	77.27	77.37	78.99	79.2(0.47%)	N/A	N/A	0	1.3	37	150	60	-31	12.86	85%	-0.05	-15.9	1.84%	0	0.5	50	INF
25	May_5_2016	73.77	78.32	77.5	76.82	76.8	77.35	78.83(3.97%)	RB	SmallLong	20	1.4	35	50	60	-39	27.95	77%		-28	1.85%	0	0.3	49	INF
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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