Trading Signals: BABA Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Mon. Sep. 21, 2015

Trading Signals: BABA Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Fri. Sep. 19, 2014 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

( Alibaba Group Holding Limited)
BABA latest price $63.9000 (-2.81%) ($62.9600 - $66.4000) on Mon. Sep. 21, 2015.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   2.24% (three month average)
RSI   46
Latest Price   $63.9000(-2.81%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   BABA advances 0.4% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   BABA advances 0.3% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Broad based rally for large cap. Value stock sell-off for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support BABA advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
KWEB(75%)    MCHI(73%)    FXI(67%)    EEM(59%)    VWO(58%)
Factors Impacting BABA price   BABA will decline at least -1.12% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-17%)    TLT(-8%)    SHY(-4%)    UUP(-3%)    IGOV(-3%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -1.12% (StdDev 2.24%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend -2.3%

Resistance Level   $65.65
5 Day Moving Average   $65.55(-2.52%)
10 Day Moving Average   $64.44(-0.84%)
20 Day Moving Average   $65.65(-2.67%)
To recent high   -25.4%
To recent low   4.9%
Market Cap   $171.426b

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. engages in providing online and mobile marketplaces in retail and wholesale trade. It operates through the following business segments: Core Commerce; Cloud Computing; Digital Media and Entertainment; and Innovation Initiatives and Others. The Core Commerce segment comprises of platforms operating in retail and wholesale. The Cloud Computing segment consists of Alibaba Cloud, which offers elastic computing, database, storage and content delivery network, large scale computing, security, management and application, big data analytics, a machine learning platform, and other services provide for enterprises of different sizes across various industries. The Digital Media and Entertainment segment relates to the Youko Tudou and UC Browser business. The Innovation Initiatives and Others segment includes businesses such as AutoNavi, DingTalk, Tmall Genie, and others. The company was founded by Chung Tsai and Yun Ma on June 28, 1999 and is headquartered in Hangzhou, China.

$. BABA price fluctuates within 3.63% (three month std-dev: 2.24%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 5 Average positive next day return: 1.56%(60%) Average negative next day return: -0.61%(40%) Sample size 5 Average positive next three day return: 1.69%(80%) Average negative next three day return: -1.53%(20%) Sample size 5 Average positive next weekly return: 2.39%(60%) Average negative next weekly return: -1.94%(40%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20151021

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Sep_21_2015	79.79	65.65	64.44	65.55	65.65	64.94	63.9(-2.81%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.7	-5	-70	-8	6	22.36	35%	-0.21	-62	2.24%	0	-0.7	46	0
2	Sep_18_2015	79.96	65.86	64.45	65.29	65.28	65.7	65.75(-0.38%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	0.2	-7	40	-2	-21	20.13	36%	-0.2	-76.9	2.22%	0	-0	41	0
3	Sep_17_2015	80.12	66.07	64.49	65.06	64.59	66.36	66(-1.83%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.4	30	170	47	-23	16.59	36%	-0.21	-82.6	2.22%	0	-0	40	0
4	Sep_16_2015	80.29	66.39	64.41	64.63	64.02	64.87	67.23(3.67%)	RB	SmallLong	20	0.9	38	60	64	-39	25.8	36%	-0.22	-76.2	2.22%	0	0.3	47	0
5	Sep_15_2015	80.47	66.68	64.13	63.99	63.32	62.83	64.85(3.59%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.3	-22	-90	3	-95	29.04	33%	-0.26	-76.7	2.16%	0	-0.5	42	0

6	Sep_14_2015	80.68	67.16	64.23	63.2	63.39	63.17	62.6(-3.14%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-48	-20	-22	-127	26.76	30%	-0.27	-80.2	2.1%	0	-1.2	45	0
7	Sep_11_2015	80.9	67.76	64.94	63.46	63.63	63.8	64.63(1.25%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.3	-31	30	-4	-110	17.75	31%	-0.22	-80.4	2.07%	0	-0.8	44	0
8	Sep_10_2015	81.08	68.27	65.51	63.83	63.81	63.61	63.83(-0.33%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	0	-33	-20	-10	-103	13.28	31%	-0.23	-78.8	2.07%	0	-1.1	38	0
9	Sep_9_2015	81.27	68.75	65.99	64.17	64.41	63.47	64.04(5.14%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0	-47	-90	-23	-118	33.15	31%	-0.22	-84.1	2.08%	0	-1.1	35	0
10	Sep_8_2015	81.45	69.4	66.44	64.33	64.92	64	60.91(-4.69%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.8	-82	-70	-57	-156	50.33	25%	-0.27	-81.4	1.96%	0	-1.9	26	0

11	Sep_4_2015	81.67	70.37	67	65.37	65.32	65.35	63.91(-3.85%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-76	0	-45	-168	18.19	26%	-0.26	-68.6	1.9%	0	-1.4	28	0
12	Sep_3_2015	81.88	71.11	67.46	66.61	66.09	65.85	66.47(1.42%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0	-50	-50	-14	-158	15.8	28%	-0.22	-62.1	1.85%	0	-1	32	0
13	Sep_2_2015	82.06	71.72	67.83	67.48	67.01	65.29	65.54(1.1%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-89	-200	-60	-177	13.38	28%	-0.24	-57.1	1.84%	0	-1.3	29	0
14	Sep_1_2015	82.26	72.43	68.56	68.1	68.33	66.34	64.83(-1.95%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.7	-113	-190	-91	-178	23.46	28%	-0.23	-55.6	1.83%	0	-1.6	33	0
15	Aug_31_2015	82.45	73.15	69.46	68.85	69.13	68.74	66.12(-5.64%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-74	-30	-47	-156	18.48	29%	-0.23	-56.7	1.84%	0	-1.5	29	0

16	Aug_28_2015	82.64	73.76	70.36	68.79	69.41	70.32	70.07(-1.09%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.3	10	120	62	-146	10.6	30%	-0.19	-63.8	1.73%	0	-0.9	29	0
17	Aug_27_2015	82.8	74.17	70.79	68.41	67.55	69.51	70.84(3.18%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.6	-17	170	38	-183	18.12	30%	-0.18	-70.2	1.73%	0	-0.8	34	0
18	Aug_26_2015	82.95	74.62	71.17	68.31	67.11	68.51	68.66(0.13%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.1	-7	90	58	-202	26.39	26%	-0.17	-74.1	1.68%	0	-1.3	29	0
19	Aug_25_2015	83.09	75.21	71.66	69.2	67.88	65.58	68.57(4.21%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-94	-290	-42	-250	29.95	26%	-0.16	-75	1.67%	0	-1.5	27	0
20	Aug_24_2015	83.22	75.82	72.52	70.26	68.97	65.72	65.8(-3.49%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-1.1	-253	-380	-230	-320	31.38	20%	-0.22	-74.1	1.58%	0	-2.4	22	0

21	Aug_21_2015	83.4	76.63	73.99	72.14	71.93	70.18	68.18(-3.04%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.1	-143	-180	-117	-221	29.13	27%	-0.17	-72.7	1.54%	0	-2.3	29	0
22	Aug_20_2015	83.54	77.39	75.09	73.45	73.37	72.22	70.32(-3.83%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.9	-101	-110	-79	-166	21	32%	-0.14	-70.7	1.58%	0	-2.1	31	0
23	Aug_19_2015	83.66	78.08	75.97	74.41	74.26	73.68	73.12(-1.03%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-60	-60	-36	-130	18.18	34%	-0.13	-64.6	1.57%	0	-1.5	32	0
24	Aug_18_2015	83.77	78.63	76.64	74.46	74.69	74.53	73.88(-1.74%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-41	-10	-14	-122	11.16	34%	-0.12	-63.2	1.58%	0	-1.5	33	0
25	Aug_17_2015	83.87	79.07	77.15	75.16	74.3	74.84	75.19(0.58%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0	-55	20	-33	-120	12.68	36%		-58.6	1.58%	0	-1.3	34	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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